The All-Star break is over and the 2023 MLB regular season resumes Friday. The remaining 44% of the season will decide postseason races and awards races, and even entire franchise outlooks. An unexpected postseason run can lead to very good things in the future, but teams that fall short of expectations could be looking at an overhaul in the winter.
With the resumption of play upon us, let's dive into the biggest storylines of the second half of the season. Come with me, won't you?
1. Ohtani! Ohtani! Ohtani!
The sport's coolest player and biggest star will be the center of attention in more ways than one these final 12 weeks. First and foremost, will the Angels keep Shohei Ohtani? They lost 13 of their final 17 games to close out the first half and enter the second half five games out of a wild-card spot. Can they inch closer to a postseason spot? If not, trading Ohtani will have to be on the table.
Furthermore, Ohtani could make a run at 60 home runs. He entered the break with an MLB-leading 32 home runs and is on pace to go deep 57 times. He's also shown he's capable of hitting, say, eight home runs in a 10-game span, like he did from June 9-18. Do that again and suddenly Ohtani has a real chance at putting up only the 10th 60-homer season in baseball history.
The Angels making Ohtani available at the deadline would lead to an unprecedented bidding war. Every single contender could use this guy and you're getting an ace pitcher and a middle-of-the-order hitter. Ohtani is good enough to swing the balance of power in a division race or a postseason series on his own. How do you value that in a trade? Finding common ground feels impossible.
Ohtani somehow continues to get better, and whether it's because he's on the trade market or because he's chasing 60 home runs (or both), he will be the center of the baseball world in the second half.
2. Arraez's pursuit of .400
At .383, Marlins infielder Luis Arraez posted the highest first half batting average since Darin Erstad hit .384 in the first half with the 2000 Angels. Arraez finished the first half in a bit of a slump -- "slump" -- going 13 for 46 (.283) in his final 12 games. His current .383 average is his lowest since .378 on June 14. He then went 11 for 14 in the next three games to get back to .400.
The upstart Marlins have played 92 games this season. Here are the highest batting averages through 92 team games since 1941, the year Hall of Famer Ted Williams became the last player to hit .400 in a season:
Larry Walker, 1997 Rockies
.406
.366
Tony Gwynn, 1997 Padres
.402
.372
Ted Williams, 1941 Red Sox
.400
.406
John Olerud, 1993 Blue Jays
.396
.363
Nomar Garciaparra, 2000 Red Sox
.396
.372
Rod Carew, 1977 Twins
.394
.388
Ted Williams, 1948 Red Sox
.391
.369
Stan Musial, 1948 Cardinals
.387
.376
Tony Gwynn, 1994 Padres
.387
.351
Rod Carew, 1983 Angels
.387
.339
Darin Erstad, 2000 Angels
.385
.355
Incredibly, three of those 11 players didn't even go on to win their league's batting title (Erstad, Walker, Carew in 1983). And of course Gwynn was robbed of a proper .400 chase in 1994 when the players went on strike in August, ultimately ending the season. This is the company Arraez and his .383 first half batting average are keeping though. This is rarified air.
Some quick math: Arraez is averaging 3.58 at-bats per team game, putting him on pace for 251 at-bats in the second half and 580 at-bats for the season. To finish with a .400 average, he'd need 232 hits in those 580 at-bats, or 106 hits the rest of the way on top of his MLB-leading 126 hits. To put it another way, Arraez would have hit .422 the rest of the way to finish at .400, give or take.
Doable? Sure, why not. Difficult? You bet. Point is, we could have an honest-to-goodness .400 chase this year, something we have not had since Gwynn in 1997. Arraez had three five-hit games in a 17-day span last month and you have to go back two decades for the last player with this high a batting average this deep into the season. The chase is on.
3. Judge's return and the slumping Yankees
The Yankees entered the All-Star break at 49-42 and a game behind the third and final wild-card spot, and a game up on last place in the brutal AL East. Since Aaron Judge tore a ligament in his toe crashing into the Dodger Stadium wall on June 3, the Yankees are 14-17 and hitting .218/.288/.379 as a team. Things are so bad they fired their hitting coach this past Sunday.
The thing is, no one really knows when Judge will return. It's an unusual injury and he has resumed very light baseball activities (playing catch and hitting off a tee), though he said he still has pain, and he's yet to really test the toe. Offseason surgery is on the table as well. Clearly, the reigning MVP will miss a few more weeks. Does that mean 2-3? 4-6? 6-8? Who knows.
It's clear at this point New York's problems run deeper than Judge's injury. Their veterans (DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.) are underperforming and problems that were not addressed in the winter (namely left field) are biting them. The hitting coach may have just been the start. If the Yankees miss the postseason, bigger changes could be coming.
4. The Mets and Padres trying to salvage their seasons
Hands down, the Mets and Padres are the two most disappointing teams in baseball this season. They enter the break with 43-47 and 42-48 records, respectively, and they're both 6-7 games out of a postseason berth. The Mets and Padres were expected to be two of the best teams in baseball! They certainly spent like it. Instead, they're massively underperforming.
So, where do they go from here? Do they sell at the trade deadline (imagine the market for Juan Soto) or they double down and add for a second-half run? I suppose it depends what happens these next two and a half weeks. String a few wins together and they will be clear cut buyers. Limp to the trade deadline and both clubs could pivot in the other direction and sell.
Assuming it will take 90 wins to get to the postseason (the current pace is 88 wins, but let's call it 90), the Mets need to go 48-24 in the second half to get there, and the Padres need to go 47-25. That's essentially a 108-win pace for two-and-a-half months. Can either team do it? Sure, they're both talented, but that's the sort of hole they dug themselves in the first half.
5. Elly and the red-hot Reds
Since calling up wunderkind Elly De La Cruz on June 6, the Reds have baseball's second-best record at 23-8, and they've moved into first place in the NL Central. De La Cruz has been otherworldly. He's hitting .325/.363/.524 with four homers and 16 -- 16! -- steals in 30 games. Last Saturday, he stole second, third, and home in the span of two pitches.
The first-place Reds are so much more than De La Cruz though. Rookie shortstop Matt McLain has slashed .300/.366/.512 in 50 games. Spencer Steer has put up a .277/.367/.477 line with 14 homers. Closer Alexis Díaz is making a name for himself while his brother, Edwin, is on the shelf. Rookie lefty Andrew Abbott has a 2.35 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings in seven starts.
The Reds are in first place and they have been one of the most fun and most watchable teams in the sport over the last five weeks. You can't take your eyes off De La Cruz but the rest of the team is pretty good too. Now that they're in first place, we'll see whether the Reds can stay there, and how the front office chooses to reinforce the team at the deadline.
6. Can Carroll win two awards?
Not since Judge in 2017 has a rookie been a legitimate MVP candidate. Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll is in that mix heading into the second half. The game's No. 2 prospect entering 2023 owns a .289/.366/.549 line with 18 homers and 26 steals in 28 attempts, and he's playing splendid defense as well. Here is the National League WAR leaderboard at the All-Star break:
Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves: 5.0Mookie Betts, Dodgers: 4.2Ha-Seong Kim, Padres: 4.1Luis Arraez, Marlins: 3.9Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres: 3.9Corbin Carroll, D-Backs: 3.8Carroll has been one of the best players in the league this season and the D-Backs will begin the second half in a virtual tie with the Dodgers atop the NL West. If Arizona wins the division, or even just makes the postseason, Carroll will get MVP support. He's already the Rookie of the Year favorite, but being the best player on surprise contender will equal MVP votes.
Only two players have won Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season: Fred Lynn with the 1975 Red Sox and Ichiro Suzuki with the 2001 Mariners. Carroll has a chance to join that group this year. And, more importantly, the D-Backs have a chance to win their division for the first time since 2011. There will be an MVP race and a postseason race down the stretch in Arizona.
7. Contenders separating from pretenders
Entering the All-Star break, 15 teams -- half the league! -- have at least a 40% chance at the postseason, according to both FanGraphs and SportsLine. Only 12 teams can go to the postseason, so there are a lot of clubs on the bubble, not to mention some teams that have overperformed to date and others that have underperformed.
For example, are Arraez's Marlins really this good? What about Carroll's D-Backs? Can Judge's Yankees straightened themselves out? The Red Sox may be in last place, but they're only two games out of a postseason berth. The Cubs going on a run the next few weeks wouldn't surprise me. And what in the world is going in the AL Central? Not one single team with a winning record!
There are still so many teams -- more than half the league, I'd say -- that we still don't know how good they are, truly, and we're not going to know until the end of the season. This year, there are a handful of great teams, a handful of awful teams, and then a big group of OK teams. The second half is about those OK teams trying to prove they're contenders, not pretenders.
8. The trade deadline
The trade deadline is Aug. 1 this season, so less than three weeks away, and the current landscape suggests it might not be the busiest trading season. Only a few teams are truly out of it, meaning fewer sellers, and the teams that are ready to sell (Athletics, Rockies, Royals, etc.) don't have a whole lot to offer. There's plenty of demand, but not much supply.
I think, perhaps foolishly, there will be more activity than expected at the deadline. Nothing in this game seems to gets done until the last minute, and I think teams will find creative ways to address their needs. That could mean more major leaguer-for-major leaguer trades, which would be fun. My spare outfielder for your spare reliever, you know? Not just big leaguer-for-prospect trades.
Here are our top 20 trade candidates, though to be sure, many others could be on the move. Ohtani being available would shake up the market. What do the Yankees do? What about the Mets and Padres? The Dodgers definitely need a starter, maybe two. Now that the draft is over, expect the trade rumors to begin. Unexpected names will be available. They always are.
9. Is there enough pitching to go around?
Already 751 different pitchers have appeared in a game this season, the sixth-highest total in history behind 2021 (909), 2022 (871), 2019 (831), 2018 (799), and 2017 (755). Obviously part of this is modern bullpen usage and the constant shuttling of relievers in and out to make sure fresh arms are always available, but 751 pitchers already? It's only the All-Star break!
Since Day 1 of spring training, there has been concern within the game about having enough pitching to get through the season. How do pitchers handle the pitch timer in the hottest summer months? What do you do when young pitchers reach their workload limit? Also, the increasingly popular max effort style of pitching creates heightened risk of injury.
This is not only a question for contenders, who have to think about getting through October too. Even rebuilding teams like, say, the intentionally bad A's have to figure this out. They must handle their young pitchers (Hogan Harris, Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk, etc.) carefully. The war of pitching attrition has never been greater. Navigating these last few months will be a challenge.
10. Will the Braves (or Rays) finish the job?
To date, the Braves and Rays have established themselves as the two best teams in baseball. Tampa began the season with a 13-game winning streak and were the sport's best team until early June. Since then, the Braves have been on a rampage, and they currently have the sport's best record by four games (Atlanta took two of three in Tampa last weekend):
Braves: 60-29Rays: 58-35 (4 GB)Orioles: 54-35 (6 GB)Marlins: 53-39 (8.5 GB)Dodgers: 51-38 (9 GB)Only three times in the last decade has the team with baseball's best record won the World Series, and one of the three was the pandemic-shortened 60-game season: 2020 Dodgers, 2018 Red Sox, and 2016 Cubs. The new Wild Card Series round creates an additional layer of postseason unpredictability, plus weird things happen in short series. That's baseball.
The Braves won the World Series two years ago and have their ultra-impressive homegrown core locked up long-term. They are positioned as well as any team in recent memory to become a dynasty. The Rays have come close a few times, though they're still trying to get over the hump and win the franchise's first championship. In the first half, the Braves and Rays have stood out as the best teams in baseball. Now comes the hard part: finishing the job and earning the parade.
