The 2023 Home Run Derby will take place Monday evening in Seattle's T-Mobile Park at 8 p.m. ET. The eight-slugger field features a two-time champ, a home-team star and plenty of slugging star power.
Here's the bracket:
Alonso is the two-time champ, Rodríguez made the finals last year and Guerrero made the finals in 2019. The other five are rookies in this particular event.
Now let's examine the odds and determine some best bets for the night, shall we?
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Most home runs in first round
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: +300Julio Rodríguez: +400Pete Alonso: +400Randy Arozarena: +600Mookie Betts: +700Adley Rutschman: +800Adolis García: +850Luis Robert: +850In the 2019 Derby, Vlad put on an absolute show, going for a then-record 29 homers in the first round and then doing it again with 29 in the second before needing two swing-offs to beat Joc Pederson.
Julio is at home here, where he takes batting practice so many times a year, and also hit 32 homers in the first round last year when no other player hit more than 24.
Alonso is vying to tie Ken Griffey Jr. with three Derby wins in his career.
All three would be quality bets here, but I'm going with a newbie.
Luis Robert is a hulking man with light-tower power. He can hit the ball as hard as anyone even when his swing looks relatively effortless. I like the long odds here and we often see someone somewhat unexpectedly put on a show.
THE PICK: Luis Robert (+850)
Longest home run in Derby
Over 483.5 feet: -115Under 483.5 feet: -115The longest homer last year in Dodger Stadium was 482 feet from Juan Soto. Alonso hit one 480 and another 478, so one would assume he can get up against this total. We should toss out all the 500-plus foot shots in Coors Field in 2021 for obvious reasons and there wasn't a Derby in 2020. Vlad hit one 476 feet in 2019. The longest homer in 2018's Derby was 473 feet.
Among the eight hitters here, the longest home run this season was from Julio at 454 feet. Vlad and Robert aren't far off at 450 with Alonso checking in at 448.
Some factors to consider here are this isn't a game and instead more of a batting practice type situation, meaning the players are trying to hit the ball as far as they can and have pitchers ready to accommodate them instead of get them out. That's always worth some extra feet.
By Statcast park factor, T-Mobile Park is slightly below average for home runs and it gets tougher during the day. The event starts at 5 p.m. local time and while it ends at night, the first round will be in a bit of a "day" window and that's before the players start to get gassed in the later rounds.
Basically, that's a high number, the ball isn't likely to travel quite as far when it's day time and the first round is the best time for the furthest home runs.
THE PICK: Under 483.5 feet (-115)
Player to hit longest home run
Robert: +250Alonso: +300Guerrero Jr.: +325Rodríguez: +700García: +700Arozarena: +1000Betts: +1200Rutschman: +1400Any of the top three would be good selections, but Julio has as much power as anyone and he's comfortable enough in this ballpark to unleash on a few. He hit one 463 feet last year in unfamiliar territory as a 21-year-old rookie.
THE PICK: Julio Rodríguez (+700)
Home Run Derby winner odds
Alonso: +300Guerrero Jr.: +450Robert: +500Rodríguez: +550García: +600Betts: +900Arozarena: +900Rutschman: +1600I like Robert over Rutschman in Round 1 and though he'll have his hands full in the second round with either Arozarena or García, we'll see the big man gets to the finals. Though Rutschman being from Oregon should generate some quality fan interest and I think the show Robert puts on engergizes the crowd, the drama is on the other side of the bracket here. It's Alonso vs. Rodríguez as the main event of the first round along with Guerrero vs. Betts. There will be plenty of Blue Jays and Dodgers fans while both players are wildly popular among casual fans, so that'll be quite the show as well.
I'm going to say Julio slays the Polar Bear (Alonso) at home while Vlad sets up Seattle vs. Toronto in the second round.
We've seen the home crowd lift winners like Todd Frazier and Bryce Harper and I'll say it happens here again.
THE PICK: Julio Rodríguez (+550)
Sleeper pick: Take a look at Betts with that +900. He won't sit toward the top of the distance leaderboard, but he has sneaky-great power for his relatively diminutive frame and he's as consistent as it comes with his swing. I could see him being steady through all three rounds while others start to tire throughout the night.
