In just a few days, Major League Baseball's exhibition season will officially get underway. That means we're nearing the point of the spring when prognosticators attempt to fill the void inside by making predictions about any and everything the sport has to offer. This week, we're attempting to figure out which teams will experience change-of-fortunes with respect to the playoffs.
While the new playoff format is too nascent to draw conclusions about the average year-to-year turnover rate, we know from the past that it was common to see at least three and on average five teams fall from the bracket. There's no guarantee that will remain the case heading forward, but until we have more evidence we're going to continue to use that as our guideline.
So, with that in mind, below you'll find our ranking of the five non-playoff teams from last season who we believe have the best chance at cracking the field this October. These teams are ranked in order of perceived likelihood, and we've included a brief summary of what happened last year; why this year could be different; and what top projection systems (Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA, FanGraphs' ZiPS and SportsLine) say of their chances.
What happened in 2022: The Twins owned a share of first place in the AL Central for more than 100 days, including a night in September. They finished 2-8 in their last 10 series en route to 78 wins and a third-place finish.
Reason for optimism in 2023: Carlos Correa is unexpectedly back after an outstanding initial year in Minnesota that saw him lead the Twins in OPS+. A rotation that ranked 19th in ERA last season should benefit from adding Pablo López, as well as getting full years from Tyler Mahle (trade deadline acquisition) and Kenta Maeda (Tommy John surgery). Speaking of injuries, it's generally safe to assume teams who were extremely lucky (or unlucky) in the health department will regress toward the mean in that respect. You can argue the Twins will prove to be an exception -- they employ Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, both prone to missing time; plus, after this winter, it's hard to ignore the possibility of Correa's ankle giving him trouble -- but there's plenty of fairway between a pristine injury log and what they did last season, when they lost the second most days to the IL of any club.
What projection systems say: The AL Central has crowned a different champion in each of the past three years. PECOTA (88 wins, first place) and ZiPS (83, tied for first) give the Twins a good chance of extending that streak. SportsLine gives Minnesota a 20.7% chance of making the postseason.
What happened in 2022: The Brewers won the most games (86) of any NL team who failed to make the postseason. That inconvenient truth snapped their streak of consecutive playoff berths at four, the longest in franchise history. Top executive David Stearns stepped down from his position after the season, though his decision to do so was supposedly unrelated.
Reason for optimism in 2023: The Brewers did not view Stearns' call as a sign to reset. They kept shortstop Willy Adames and starters Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes (though they've since irked Burnes over a trifling sum of money). They did move Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong, their most productive hitters last season, and they'll attempt to replace their output with newcomers Jesse Winker and William Contreras. To the Brewers' credit, they do have the capacity for internal growth. Youngsters Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell should start the year on the big-league roster, and in due time Milwaukee could promote a few more quality outfield prospects, including former first-round pick Sal Frelick and top-five prospect Jackson Chourio. (Chourio is more likely a late-season addition, if at all this year.) The Chicago Cubs improved this winter, but the NL Central still looks like a two-team race.
What projection systems say: PECOTA and ZiPS again have the Brewers in the thick of the Central race. The former has them winning 88 games, good for a division crown; ZiPS foresees 84 wins and a second-place finish. SportsLine gives Milwaukee a 52.8% chance of making the postseason.
What happened in 2022: The Angels missed the postseason for an eighth consecutive year. What's more is that they've yet to notch a winning season while employing both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.
Reason for optimism in 2023: Well, the Angels continue to employ Ohtani and Trout, which is supposed to give them a wider berth than the normal team. General manager Perry Minasian again spent the winter trying to build a competent supporting cast. This time, that meant adding Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury, and Gio Urshela to the lineup, plus Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez to the pitching staff. Will it be enough? That's the perpetual question for a franchise accustomed to answering "nope." Here's another reason to think better times are coming: a tried-and-true statistical observation is that teams who are especially good or bad in one-run games will usually balance out the following year. The Angels had one of the majors' worst records in one-run games last season, playing like a 63-win club in those contests.
What projection systems say: This, Ohtani's walk season, might be the year. PECOTA has the Angels winning 86 games and finishing second in the AL West, while ZiPS forecasts 83 wins and a third-place designation. SportsLine gives L.A. a 21.1% chance of making the postseason.
What happened in 2022: The Rangers disappointed following a winter splurge that saw them ink two of the best free agents on the market in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. To wit, Texas finished in fourth place with a 68-94 record. General manager Jon Daniels and skipper Chris Woodward were fired.
Reason for optimism in 2023: The Rangers responded to their dismal season with another busy winter. They added Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi, and retained Martín Pérez in an effort to improve the sixth-worst rotation in baseball. There's plenty of injury risk between those five pitchers (not to mention Jon Gray), but the Rangers could have additional depth coming in the form of top prospects Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Cole Winn, and Owen White. Here's something else worth keeping in mind: the Rangers were the unluckiest team in the majors last season, winning nine fewer games than expected, according to FanGraphs' BaseRuns. You'd be correct to assume teams with that kind of bad luck (and it's not always just luck) are fair bets to win more games in the following season.
What projection systems say: The good news is that the Rangers are indeed expected to be improved in a substantive way. The bad news is that it might not be enough for them to make their first trip to the postseason since 2016. ZiPS has them winning 83 games, PECOTA says 78. That's third or fourth place, depending on your preferred scenario. SportsLine gives L.A. a 26.7% chance of making the postseason.
What happened in 2022: The Orioles hatched a year earlier than expected thanks to a combination of their arriving young talent, their eye for plucking and empowering undervalued or untapped talent, and the changes they made to the left-field wall ("Waltimore"). They won 83 games, the franchise's most since 2016, and finished just a few games back of the final wild-card spot.
Reason for optimism in 2023: Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are likely to be joined by some more talented youngsters this season, including Grayson Rodriguez and Colton Cowser, among others. The Orioles should get lefty starter John Means back at some point over the summer, enhancing their rotation. Their growth will have to continue to come through internal means because they took an indifferent approach to the offseason -- adding only Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Adam Frazier, and James McCann. Nevertheless, even if they left chicken on the bone this winter, it's hard to knock the core they're building or their aforementioned ability to find contributors on the cheap.
What projection systems say: Both PECOTA (74 wins) and ZiPS (78 wins) have the Orioles taking steps back and finishing in last place. In other words, if we went solely off projection systems for this piece, we would've had the Boston Red Sox -- and not the Orioles -- as one of these five teams. SportsLine gives Baltimore a 4.4% chance of making the postseason.
