Houston Astros Cristian Javier continued his year-long dominance against the New York Yankees on Saturday in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series. Javier departed in the sixth inning with the Astros up 5-0 (GameTracker), putting them just a few innings away from a 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.
Javier, 25, finished his evening with a final line of 5 1/3 shutout innings, surrendering just one hit and three walks, and striking out five batters. Saturday marked the third time he had faced the Yankees this season, following a late June performance during which he contributed seven innings to a combined no-hit effort at Yankee Stadium and another outing a few weeks later when he held them to one run over the course of five innings.
Add it all together, and Javier has put forth the following numbers in three starts against the Yankees in 2022: 17 1/3 innings, three hits, one run, eight walks, and 21 strikeouts. The Astros seem likely to be 3-0 in those games.
The key to Javier's success on Saturday was his four-seam fastball. He threw 84 pitches on the game, and 60 of them were heaters. Javier coerced 28 swings against the fastball, with the Yankees whiffing on nine of those. (He also generated three whiffs on 10 swings taken against his slider.) His average fastball clocked in at 94 mph, suggesting that he didn't overpower the Yankees in a traditional sense.
Rather, Javier continued to rely on the optical illusion created by his fastball's innate movement and his release point. His fastball appears to "rise," or not sink as much as it should according to the batter's eye and expectations. That, in conjunction with a flat plane to the plate, explains why hitters are so prone to swinging underneath the pitch, either missing it entirely or hitting it weakly into the air.
To wit, Javier was one of 169 pitchers who threw at least 500 four-seamers during the regular season. He ranked sixth in Vertical Approach Angle, 13th in Induced Vertical Break, and 88th in average velocity.
Javier completed the regular season having appeared in 30 games, 25 of them starts. He amassed a 2.54 ERA (152 ERA+) and a 3.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio, good to the tune of an estimated 3.7 Wins Above Replacement.
Provided the Astros close out Game 3, the odds will be overwhelmingly in their favor to win another pennant. Historically, teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven series have eventually won that series more than 97 percent of the time.
