The Toronto Blue Jays are angling for a second consecutive postseason appearance, and right now they're in line to achieve that aim. Thanks in part to a recent surge, the Jays at this writing find themselves in third place in the tough AL East, within 5 1/2 games of the first-place Rays and Orioles, and in second wild-card position.
Their grip on playoff position, however, is tenuous. The Astros, in the third wild-card spot, are close on their heels, and the Red Sox and Yankees aren't much further back. As such, Toronto will almost certainly be looking to fortify the current roster leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline. That means it's time to preview said deadline for said team. So let's have a look at what the Jays' goals might be before the ball drops on Aug. 1.
Needs
The Jays have a well assembled roster, particularly after addressing their need for lefty bats this past offseason, which means they don't have any especially glaring needs right now. While contenders are always pining for relief help this time of year, Toronto isn't starved for it. Their bullpen has been one of MLB's best to date, and Chad Green recently began a rehab assignment. That perhaps leaves the rotation.
Right now, Toronto starting pitchers rank a respectable ninth in MLB in rotation ERA and 10th in rotation K/BB ratio. As well, the return of Hyun-Jin Ryu, who's completing his recovery from Tommy John surgery, is approaching. Once Ryu does get back, it seems likely he'll bump Yusei Kikuchi to a swingman role, which would also give manager John Schneider a second left-hander in the bullpen. At that point, the big decision will probably be whether Alek Manoah merits a rotation spot on a team with World Series aspirations.
Manoah excelled across the first two seasons of his big-league career, but 2023 has been an entirely different story. His struggles were such that in early June he was optioned all the way to lowest rungs of the system with a 6.36 ERA and 6.54 FIP through his first 13 starts. After that remedial work, Manoah was summoned back to Toronto, and his performance has been a mixed bag through his two starts since returning. As such, Toronto must decide whether it's comfortable sticking with him through a stretch drive that will occasion fierce competition for an AL playoff berth. If Manoah is unable to find his level over his next start or two, then the Jays would enter the market for starting pitchers.
Potential targets
With what figures to be a limited supply of sellers this deadline, the competition for starters should be fierce. Speaking of which, here are three possibilities for Toronto should it decide rotation reinforcements are in order.
Giolito is in his walk year, and the White Sox figure to be sellers even though they play in the resoundingly mediocre AL Central. He's enjoying a quality bounce-back season in 2023 thanks in part to a refined slider that he features more prominently. Outside of a subpar 2022 season, Giolito has been a consistent frontline starter since his breakout campaign of 2019.
The Cubs seem to be positioned as sellers, and Stroman, who spent the first five-and-a-half years of his MLB career in Toronto, would be a popular and effective addition for the Jays. He has thrived this season, and since 2019 he boasts a sparkling ERA+ of 134 across 110 starts. Stroman's contract includes a $21 million player option for 2024, but he figures to opt for free agency.
The lefty Montgomery as a former Yankee rotation fixture is familiar with the challenges of pitching in the AL East. The 30-year-old pending free agent has an ERA+ of 134 since joining the Cardinals at last year's deadline, and he boasts an ERA+ of 114 for his career.
Trade chips
While Toronto doesn't have an especially strong farm system at the moment, it does have pitching depth into which it can tap for any notable deadline deal. In the upper rungs of the system, lefty Ricky Tiedemann – probably the Jays' top prospect right now – is an interesting name, as is Triple-A right-hander Yosver Zulueta. Looking deeper, lefty Brandon Barriera, their top pick of the 2022 draft, has a high ceiling. If teams are looking for position prospects, then the Jays might be able to offer up infielders Tucker Toman and Orelvis Martinez.
