The San Diego Padres and third baseman Manny Machado have agreed to a monster contract extension (11 years and $350 million). There are many takeaways, but toward the top of the list has to be something about how Padres' ownership is blowing up the perception that "small market" teams can't spend like the so-called big boys. Not far behind that thought comes another: When will they extend Juan Soto?
Simply: After pretty much every deal they make, our minds have been trained to believe something along the lines of "well, this is it. They can't keep spending now." And then they spend more.
They now have the following deals on the books:
Machado, 11 years, $350 millionXander Bogaerts, 11 years, $280 million through 2033Fernando Tatis, Jr., 14 years, $340 million through 2034Yu Darvish, six years, $108 million through 2028Joe Musgrove, five years, $100 million through 2027There are more, such as Robert Suarez's player options that could take him through 2027 or Ha-Seong Kim's mutual option for 2025, but these are the big ones that bleed deep into the future.
And while there are other items on general manager A.J. Preller's to-do list, such as maybe a Josh Hader extension (he's only under club control for 2023 before he hits free agency), the next natural step is to wonder about Soto.
Soto hitting the trading block last season made significant waves across baseball and the Padres won the sweepstakes. He's now entering his age-24 season and is playing for a team that is all in after making the NLCS in 2022. Soto's a superstar under team control through 2024, so he's an obvious extension candidate.
There we go again. My mind immediately started to say things like "there's just no way." Surely the Padres can't extend him now, right? Look at all those long-term deals on the books! In a small market!
For real, though, at this point there's every reason to believe Soto isn't going anywhere. The Padres and owner Peter Seidler have shown us how much they are willing to aggressively spend into future years, which means a player of Soto's caliber has surely noticed much in the same way Machado did. Even if he doesn't now, give him a few more months. Soto will eventually, if he doesn't already, want to stay. And the Padres will very likely pay what it takes.
It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds. Soto is only 24 and already has a championship ring in addition to a career .287/.424/.526 (157 OPS+) slash with 125 homers and 23.2 WAR. Baseball-reference.com has a handy tool that compares statistically similar players by age. Through age 23, the top matches for Juan Soto are Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson and Mickey Mantle. Decent company, eh?
That kind of talent only comes around once in a generation. Given everything we've seen from this front office and ownership, these Padres aren't about to let that guy slip away in free agency. They've been raising the bar far too often to stop now.
