Dodgers rotation woes: Between injuries and inefficiencies, starting pitching struggling despite NL West lead

Even when they're willing to take a step back to incorporate youth into the roster, the Los Angeles Dodgers can't help but be one of the best teams in the league. The Dodgers have won 15 of their last 19 games and currently sit atop the NL West at 28-17. They have the National League's second best record and second best run differential (plus-49), behind only the Atlanta Braves.

"We expected it to come, you just never know when it's going to happen," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Dodger Blue about the club's recent hot streak. "I think you just sort of bet that the process is right and the players are right, and you just keep trying to play good baseball, and hopefully you can tally some wins together."

The Dodgers, thanks in part to young hitters like James Outman and Miguel Vargas, lead the National League with 245 runs scored, 16 more than any other team. They are only middle of the pack with 196 runs allowed, however. Elite run prevention has been a constant during this era of Dodgers baseball. This year, their run prevention is good more than great.

Here's where the Dodgers' rotation ranks among the 30 teams:

Good. Not amazing, certainly not bad, just good. And for the Dodgers, a merely good rotation is out of character. It hasn't helped that ace Julio Urías is sitting on a 4.39 ERA one year after finishing third in the NL Cy Young voting. Urías' home run rate has just about doubled this year, thanks in no small part to the four homers he surrendered in the span of five batters Thursday.

"Those pitches are mistakes, and clearly he's making a lot more mistakes than we're accustomed to," Roberts told MLB.com about Urías' rough night. "And again, you can see today, you know, there were some uncharacteristic walks, and he was fighting himself. Even with the pitch clock, I just didn't see a consistent rhythm from pitch one tonight."

Los Angeles suffered a significant blow earlier this week when Dustin May went down with a strained flexor pronator mass, which is one of the many forearm muscles that absorb the stress when a pitch is thrown so the ulnar collateral ligament doesn't snap. This is May's first full year back from Tommy John surgery and forearm trouble warrants extreme caution. He'll miss at least a month.

"It's a big blow," Roberts told MLB.com. "My first (thought) goes to Dustin and what he's had to go through. Obviously, he was a big part of this year, and he still could be. But right now, to have this speed bump with him, I know he's disappointed."

The Dodgers are expected to recall righty Gavin Stone to replace May in the rotation, and Michael Grove looms as an added layer of rotation depth beyond Stone. At the moment, the club's rotation depth chart looks something like this:

Pepiot is very early in his throwing program and is looking at a return sometime around the All-Star break. Buehler is throwing in the bullpen and hopes to return in September, though that is a very aggressive rehab timetable for a player working his way back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Point is, the Dodgers aren't getting Buehler, May, or Pepiot back anytime soon.

"Sept. 1 is still the goal," Buehler recently told the Associated Press. "... I have to try and look out for myself and the team here. The biggest thing is I want to come back healthy for all of next year. There are some exciting parts of playing at the end of this year and that's something I want to do. But if I'm not healthy enough, I'm not going to try and put a square peg in a round hole."

Gonsolin returned from a spring training ankle injury late last month and got his pitch count up to 85 last time out. The Dodgers have built him up slowly, though he's just about fully stretched out at this point. Syndergaard has really struggled this year (5.94 ERA in eight starts) and his one-year contract is not working out nearly as well as Tyler Anderson's last season.

Between all the injuries, Syndergaard pitching poorly, and Urías not being his usual Cy Young caliber self, Los Angeles is sort of moseying along with a patchwork rotation. Kershaw remains outstanding. He may not give you 200 innings a year anymore, but he is still as good as anyone in the game on a start-by-start basis. Behind him, though, there are a lot of rotation concerns here.

It feels like a foregone conclusion the Dodgers will be in the market for the starting pitcher at the deadline. That said, every single contender will be in the market for a starting pitcher at the deadline. Usually there's one or two winners set in the rotation each year, but not this season. Every single contender needs a starter due to injury and/or underperformance.

Furthermore, there may not be any true impact starters available this summer. Chicago White Sox righties Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn figure to be available, ditto San Francisco Giants hurlers Alex Cobb and Alex Wood (would the Giants even make a trade with the Dodgers?). The Cleveland Guardians would get a ton for Shane Bieber, though it's unclear whether they're willing to move him.

The trade deadline is more than two months away and a lot can and will change between now and then. Right now though, it appears every contender will be in the market for a starter and very few quality starters will actually be available. You may wind up paying inflated prices for second and third tier starters, and hey, if that's what it takes to get the help you need, so be it.

For now, the Dodgers are pushing the limits of their rotation depth. Buehler, May, and Pepiot will be out of action for at least another few weeks and Syndergaard and Urías have been inconsistent at best. That the Dodgers are piling up wins while getting less than stellar rotation work is a testament to their offense and winning culture. Eventually though, a rotation upgrade(s) will be necessary.

"I think the thing we've done a really nice job of over the years is that, when something like this unforeseen happens, we continue to move forward," Roberts told the Los Angeles Times. "Guys step up."

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