Today brought the latest reminder that there's nothing more valuable in the NFL than having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Derek Carr received a three-year extension from the Las Vegas Raiders that will pay him $121.5 million. When you combine the extension with Carr's current deal, Carr will make a maximum of $141.3 million over the next four seasons, with $100 million due over the next three years.
I don't want to sound disrespectful of Derek Carr, but that's a lot of money for Derek Carr! Seriously, Carr is a good quarterback who doesn't get enough credit for what he's done in the NFL, but he's also a QB who has never been one of the five best QBs in the league at any time during his career. Yet he's now being paid like one, and when you combine Carr's deal with the $141.25 million the Raiders just gave Davante Adams, that's a lot of cap space tied up in two players.
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Thankfully, as NFL teams prove every offseason, the salary cap is a myth, and if you're a Raiders fan, there's no reason not to be excited about the news. You've got your QB, and top WR locked up for at least four more years, and there are a lot of NFL teams that would love to be in the same situation.
The Cowboys' crypto deal has me wondering if crypto counts against the cap. Anyway, let's get to tonight's picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Hot Ticket
Hornets at Hawks, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN
Key Trend: Atlanta is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as a home favorite.The Pick: Hawks -5.5 (-110)I'm still undecided on the NBA's play-in format. It's not that I don't enjoy the games or the stakes that come with them; it's the idea that a team like Minnesota could go 46-36 during the regular season but then still have to prove itself worthy of a spot. Meanwhile, the Spurs can go 34-48, but as long as they get hot for a week in mid-April, the first 82 games become mostly meaningless.
Thankfully, that's not the case in the Eastern Conference. Only one game separated the Nets, Cavs, Hawks and Hornets in the standings. The winner of this game will face the Cavaliers for the No. 8 seed, and both come in playing well. The Hawks have won seven of 10 while the Hornets have won three straight. For tonight's contest, I'm much higher on the Hawks.
Looking at how teams have performed over their last 10 games, the Hawks net rating of 7.1 ranks sixth in the league, while the Hornets are at 0.9 (16th). Both teams have been efficient offensively in that stretch, but the Hawks have been better defensively, and in a one-and-done situation like this, I'm going to lean toward the better defense. Plus, Atlanta's been a better team at home all season long. Atlanta is 23-18 ATS at home compared to a hideous 14-27 on the road. Combine that performance with Trae Young on the national stage in a spotlight game, and I don't see how you can go any other direction.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model sees more value on the total than the spread.
The Picks
MLB
Blue Jays at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 8 (+100) -- I'm betting on this battle between great pitchers living up to the hype. Gerrit Cole and Jose Berrios weren't great in their first starts, but I think both will experience better results tonight. And then there are both offenses.
After scoring 10 runs in the season-opener against the Rangers, Toronto has scored only 13 runs in four games since. Meanwhile, the Yankees offense has been about league average and hasn't offered much outside of a few dingers. Neither of tonight's starters allow much contact, nor do they walk hitters. This game probably won't look much different than the first two games of the series, with the pitching staffs dominating overall and maybe a few solo shots sprinkled in.
Key Trend: The under is 10-2 in their last 12 meetings at Yankee Stadium.
Mariners at White Sox, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Mariners (+105) -- Both of these teams mash lefties, but one of the two lefties on the mound tonight has proven to be a lot more mashable than the other. While Robbie Ray and his exceedingly tight pants are new to the Mariners, they're not new to the White Sox, and Ray's been dominant against them in his career. Current Sox hitters are batting only .207 against Ray and have struck out just under 40% of the time against him with three walks in 63 plate appearances.
Then there's White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel. It's Keuchel's first start of the season, but he's coming off a bad 2021. Keuchel has never been a strikeout guy, but his K rate dropped down to 13.2% last season while his walk rate rose to 8.2%. Also, while he still gets plenty of groundball contact, that works better when you have a great infield behind you. That wasn't the case with the White Sox last season, and based on current personnel, I don't know how much better things will be this season.
Mariners hitters will put more balls in play than Sox hitters tonight, so getting them as an underdog is too good a prospect to pass up.
Key Trend: Seattle is 5-2 in its last seven against a left-handed starter.
