If there was any doubt the Los Angeles Angels would keep Shohei Ohtani at the trade deadline and make a run at a postseason berth, they answered those questions Wednesday night, when they added Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López in a four-player trade with the Chicago White Sox. Ohtani is off the market and the Halos, who have three teams ahead of them in the race for the third and final wild-card spot, will now try to get him to the postseason for the first time.
"(Ohtani) is a special player having a unique season with a team that has a chance to win," Angels GM Perry Minasian said Thursday after the trades (via MLB.com). "And to me, that's grounds for trying to improve the club. Whether it works or whether it doesn't, I can go to bed at night and say, 'You know what? We did this for the right reasons and we're giving ourselves a chance.' I'm excited to see how we play."
Ohtani is in position to land a record-breaking contract as a free agent after the season and he's said -- repeatedly -- his No. 1 priority is winning a championship. The money will be there wherever he goes, but a chance to win will not, and the Angels have not yet won with Ohtani. They've never even finished with a .500 record in the Ohtani era:
2018
80-82
17
2019
72-90
24
2020
26-34
3
2021
77-85
14
2022
73-89
13
Even with the 16-team postseason format during the 2020 pandemic season and the new 12-team format last year, the Angels have been unable to get to the playoffs with Ohtani. They have not been to the postseason at all since being swept by the Kansas City Royals in the 2014 ALDS. They have not won a postseason game since 2009, the year they drafted Mike Trout.
Credit to the Angels for adding Giolito and going for it, but the fact they found themselves even in position to consider an Ohtani trade is an organizational failure. They knew they'd have to contend this year to have any shot at re-signing him, and instead they are once again on the postseason bubble. The Angels have done a very poor job selling themselves to Ohtani.
How did things get to this point? How is it the Angels have thus far failed to post a .500 record, let alone get to the postseason, in the Ohtani era? Here are four reasons why the Halos are still looking for their first postseason berth of the Ohtani era.
Money poorly spent
Here's a fun fact (or a not-so-fun fact if you're an Angels fan): Cliff Pennington is the last free agent to sign a multi-year contract with the Angels and actually finish the contract with the Angels. He signed a two-year, $3.75 million deal in November 2015 and put up 1.2 WAR in a utility role from 2016-17. Pennington is the Angels' last multi-year "success" story in free agency. (Ohtani had to sign a one-year contract in 2018 because of MLB's international free agent rules.)
Simply put, the Angels have stepped on landmine after landmine in free agency. They've had big contracts (Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon), medium contracts (Zack Cozart, Ryan Tepera, etc.), and small contracts (Matt Harvey, José Quintana, Julio Teheran, etc.) go bad. Their best free-agent signing of the last decade is setup man Joe Smith, who posted a 2.89 ERA from 2014-16. He signed a three-year, $15.75 million deal and was traded at the 2016 deadline for a prospect who never reached the majors.
Owner Arte Moreno is known to be meddlesome and he reportedly went over his front office's head to broker the Hamilton, Pujols, and Rendon contracts. The Hamilton and Rendon deals were reactionary too. The Angels tried to re-sign Zack Greinke after 2012, couldn't get it done, then turned around and gave the money to Hamilton instead. They tried to sign Gerrit Cole after 2019, couldn't get that done, so they threw the money at Rendon. They've piled mistakes on top of mistakes in free agency.
The Angels annually rank among the top 10 payrolls, so Moreno is willing to spend, but only to a point. They've paid the competitive balance tax just once since Moreno bought the team in 2003. That was way back in 2004, when they went roughly $4 million over the $120.5 million threshold and paid less than $1 million in tax. Other than that, the Angels have treated the CBT threshold as a hard cap, and when you set a hard payroll cap, you limit your upside and your options.
Moreno and the Angels run a higher payroll more than most teams. Their payroll is probably not has high as it could (or should) be given their market, but they spend and they invest in stars. They've just invested very poorly. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that's gotten a worse return on their investment in free agency over the last decade.
Poor player development
As poorly as they've fared in free agency, the farm system and player development are where the problems begin for the Angels. Since drafting Trout in 2009, the Angels have drafted only four players who went on to post at least 10 WAR in the big leagues: Kole Calhoun, Mike Clevinger, C.J. Cron, and David Fletcher. Clevinger was traded as a prospect for Vinnie Pestano (21 1/3 innings with the Angels) in 2014 and Fletcher barely clears that admittedly arbitrary 10 WAR threshold.
The Angels forfeited first-round picks to sign those aforementioned bad free agent contracts (Pujols, Hamilton, etc.) and they didn't hit on enough of the first-round picks they did have. The Angels held five of the top 40 picks in 2010 and only two reached the big leagues, and neither was a difference-maker (Kaleb Cowart and Cam Bedrosian). Jo Adell, the No. 10 pick in 2017, looked like a budding star while coming up through the minors, though he's yet to put it together. Adell stalling out has really hurt the franchise.
This graph pretty much answers the "why haven't the Angels gotten to the postseason with Ohtani and Trout?" question all by itself:
The Angels haven't had much success in international amateur free agency either. Other than Ohtani, who was a professional in Japan, the Angels have not signed an international amateur and developed him into a regular since Erick Aybar, who last played in 2017. Their best non-Ohtani recent international success stories are depth arms Jaime Barria and José Suarez. These will not be confused with the days of Francisco Rodríguez and Ervin Santana.
Perhaps recent draft picks and current MLB contributors like Reid Detmers and Zach Neto are an indication the player development tide is beginning to turn for the Angels. It might be too little, too late to salvage Trout's prime and convince Ohtani to stay, however. Bad free agent signings are harmful, no doubt, but the inability to develop young players and promote from within is the single biggest reason the Angels are still trying for their first postseason berth with Ohtani.
Bad luck
To be fair, the Angels have had some bad luck along the way. Garrett Richards was in the middle of a breakout, ace-caliber season in 2014 when he took a misstep covering first base and blew out his left knee. Griffin Canning showed so much promise in 2020, then he missed most of 2021-22 with injuries. Jered Weaver declined seemingly overnight. Trout going from one of the game's most durable players to dealing with numerous injuries falls into the bad luck category too. Ohtani belongs here as well. He blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and it kept him off the mound in 2019. Of course, they still had Ohtani the hitter in 2019 and he was productive, but they were counting on the pitcher too.
The Angels have dealt with their fair share of bad luck and things like Weaver's decline and Richards' injury meaningfully subtracted from their postseason odds. That said, every team deals with bad luck. The Atlanta Braves won the World Series without Ronald Acuña Jr. two years ago. The Houston Astros won the pennant without Justin Verlander that same season. Last year the Philadelphia Phillies were relied on Bryce Harper's one good elbow. Good teams overcome bad breaks. The Angels haven't.
Coaching staff and front office instability
It was not that long ago that the Angels were the model of manager stability. Mike Scioscia was at the helm from 2000-18, a managerial tenure that seems incomprehensibly long these days. Since he stepped down after the 2018 season, the Angels have had three managers: Brad Ausmus (2019), Joe Maddon (2020-22), and current manager Phil Nevin. Three managers in five years, and Nevin, who is working on a one-year contract, is no lock to return next season.
The organizational instability extends to the front office as well. Minasian is the club's fifth GM since 2007 and their third since 2015. Since purchasing the team in 2003, Moreno has hired four GMs, and all four were rookies in the job: Tony Reagins (2007-11), Jerry Dipoto (2012-2015), Billy Eppler (2016-20), and Minasian (2021 to present). (Dipoto had a brief stint with the Arizona Diamondbacks as an interim GM in 2010, but the Angels were his first full-time GM job.)
There is certainly something to be said for young executives with new ideas, but when an owner as meddlesome as Moreno keeps bringing in first-time GMs, it gives off the impression he's just looking for a yes man. Someone who won't push back. There are only 30 GM jobs and it's almost impossible to get your foot in the door, so there will always be candidates willing to work for Moreno, but that's a lot of front office inexperience and turnover. The Angels haven't had an adult in the room for some time now.
The Angels are where are they are -- trying to get to the postseason for the first time with Ohtani in his sixth year with the team -- because their history of bad decisions and bad player development dates back over a decade at this point. They're not incompetent, that's too harsh a word, but the Angels clearly lag behind their big market brethren when it comes to being on the cutting edge. Maybe they'll get to the postseason and convince Ohtani to stay after the season. This is it though. This is their last chance. The Angels are lobbying Hail Marys now.
