The New York Yankees opened spring training Wednesday. The first day of camp is supposed to be the happiest baseball day of the year. Everyone looks great, everyone loves the team they put together, everyone feels really good about the upcoming season, so on and so forth. If you can't be optimistic on the first day of spring training, when can you be?
For the Yankees, that first day of camp optimism was quickly squashed when manager Aaron Boone's first official remarks were to announce right-hander Frankie Montas will have shoulder surgery next week and is likely to miss the season. Montas dealt with shoulder trouble throughout the second half last year and again this offseason. Now he'll go under the knife.
"It's been a couple of different shutdowns where he was getting built up. He was building back up and just still wasn't quite right, so now we've gotten to the point where he'll scope it and we'll have a better idea of the time frame once that happens," Boone said (video link). "Best case is he would be back late in the season, but we're really going to know a lot after (surgery), when they know specifically what they have to do in there."
Montas was New York's prized trade deadline acquisition last summer, when they surrendered four prospects (including touted lefty Ken Waldichuk) to acquire Oakland's ace for the rest of 2022 and all of 2023. Instead, Montas is likely to miss 2023, which means the Yankees received eight starts with a 6.35 ERA from the free agent-to-be. There's no other way to put it: it's a disaster of a trade.
What's done is done, and now the Yankees will move forward without Montas and figure out how to replace him between now and Opening Day. This is New York's updated rotation depth chart:
RHP Gerrit ColeLHP Carlos RodónRHP Luis SeverinoLHP Nestor CortesRHP Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery)RHP Domingo GermánRHP Clarke SchmidtThat's a very strong top four, so much so that FanGraphs still projects the Yankees' rotation as the best in baseball. That said, Cortes had to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic because of a hamstring injury, plus Rodón and Severino (and Germán) are no strangers to the injured list. New York's rotation is loaded with upside, but also injury risk behind the supremely durable Cole.
How can the Yankees replace Montas? There aren't many quality options available at the moment. Let's run through the different ways the Yankees can fill out their rotation.
Stick with in-house candidates
This is almost certainly how the Yankees will replace Montas, at least initially. Germán has made 70 starts in parts of five seasons with the Yankees, including 14 starts with a 3.69 ERA and 1.16 WHIP last season. He is inconsistent -- Germán has stretches where he'll dominate for 8-10 starts and then get hammered for 8-10 starts -- though he generally settles in at league average, and league average performance from the sixth guy on the rotation depth chart is pretty good.
Schmidt, who turns 27 next week, has been an up-and-down (mostly down) depth arm the last three years and has mostly pitched in relief in the majors. There are questions about whether Schmidt can start at the next level given his iffy fastball command and tendency to lean heavily on his breaking ball, but he is a former first-round pick and is at the point in his career where the Yankees need to figure out what they have in him. The Montas injury clears a rotation spot for Schmidt, if the Yankees want.
Beyond Germán and Schmidt, the Yankees have prospects Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez in camp as 40-man roster players, and journeyman Ryan Weber around as a non-roster invitee. Right-hander Will Warren, the breakout prospect in New York's system last year, figures to open the season in Triple-A. In all likelihood, the Yankees will go with Germán as their No. 5 starter because that's what they've done the last few years, and because being next in line in case of injury was the role envisioned for him in 2023.
Sign a free agent
The best remaining free agent starter came off the board earlier this week, when the San Diego Padres scooped up righty Michael Wacha. The Yankees have given zero indication they intend to pursue Trevor Bauer, neither this offseason nor at any point in the past. I don't anticipate them changing course now, even with Montas hurt and Bauer available at the league minimum.
Here are the best available free agent starters according to FanGraphs' 2023 WAR projections:
LHP Mike Minor: 0.9 WARRHP Michael Pineda: 0.5 WARRHP Dylan Bundy: 0.4 WARRHP Chris Archer: 0.4 WARLHP Dallas Keuchel: 0.3 WARAníbal Sánchez and Alec Mills are the only other free agent starters who project to be better than replacement level. If the Yankees do sign a starter, it is likely to be a minor-league contract. I doubt the Yankees would guarantee one of these pitchers a spot on the Opening Day roster. Germán has been better than all of them the last few years and should be better than them in 2023 too.
I should note the Yankees reportedly want to remain under the $293 million competitive balance tax penalty threshold, which comes with the heaviest tax rates. Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates New York's CBT payroll at $288.6 million at the moment. They have some money to spend but not much, particularly since they'll want to save some wiggle room for trade deadline additions.
Point is, the free agent starting pitcher market is mostly barren at this point. Bundy can give innings (140 innings with the Minnesota Twins last year) but they aren't quality innings. Archer fits best as a one time through the order guy at this point in his career, not as a full-fledged starter, limiting his usefulness. There aren't any viable Montas replacements in free agency at this point.
Make a trade
It's difficult to trade for rotation help in spring training. No one wants to give up pitching depth this time of year. Chris Bassitt, Sonny Gray, and Chris Paddack were traded last spring, though it was an unusual spring because of the owner-initiated lockout. Spring training was essentially part two of the offseason. Prior to last year, the last MLB starter traded in spring training was Jake Odorizzi when the Tampa Bay Rays salary dumped him on the Twins in 2018. You don't see many starters trade in February and March.
With the caveat that the trade market is always evolving, the Seattle Mariners may be the Yankees' best chance at matching up for a starting pitcher trade. The Mariners reportedly dangled lefty Marco Gonzales and righty Chris Flexen all winter. One will be their fifth starter and the other will go to the bullpen (likely Flexen since he pitched in relief in the second half last year), and Seattle could move either one. Gonzales has two years and $18.5 million left on his deal. Flexen is owed $8 million in 2023. They're not cheap.
Would the Atlanta Braves listen on Ian Anderson? I'm sure they would, not that they'd give him away. Their willingness to move Anderson likely depends on Mike Soroka's health and how comfortable they are with Kolby Allard and rookie Bryce Elder as depth behind Soroka. The Twins (Josh Winder?), Miami Marlins (Braxton Garrett?), St. Louis Cardinals (Dakota Hudson?), and Kansas City Royals (Brad Keller?) might be open to trading a starter, with might being the key word. I'm sure the Arizona Diamondbacks would jump at the chance to unload Madison Bumgarner and his contract, but I can't see the Yankees doing that.
When you need a life jacket, teams will throw you an anvil. During spring training and in the immediate aftermath of a major injury is pretty much the worst possible time to trade for a starting pitcher. The Yankees will ask around, I have no doubt about that, but conditions are ripe for inflated asking prices. With Germán and to a lesser extent Schmidt available as a viable plug-and-play fifth starter, the Yankees aren't desperate for rotation help in the wake of Montas' injury. They don't have to rush into any sort of move.
