Nearly two months into the season, it's fair to conclude Major League Baseball has succeeded in incentivizing the stolen base. New rules enlarging the bases and limiting the amount of times a pitcher can disengage during a plate appearance -- twice, though pitchers are permitted a third pickoff attempt that they must succeed on -- have resulted in what would be a new record in year-to-year stolen-base gains. Put another way, there've already been 13 players who have stolen 10 or more bases; last season, as a point of reference, 24 players stole 12 or more bases all year.
With the steal back in vogue, we figured this would be a good time to examine how the respective stolen-base leaders -- Oakland Athletics rookie outfielder Esteury Ruiz in the American League and Atlanta Braves veteran outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. in the National League -- are going about their larceny, and whether either of them can credit the new rules for fueling their early season stolen-base success. (Do note that the statistics and observations are as of Saturday morning.)
Let's get to it.
Esteury Ruiz
Ruiz was the key player the Athletics netted in last winter's Sean Murphy trade. The industry had concerns about his offensive viability (something that remains in question given his dependence on getting hit by pitches), but there was no doubting that he's an entertaining player to watch. He's extremely fast, and he leverages his speed to make an impact in the field and, most importantly here, on the basepaths.
Ruiz entered Monday leading the majors in stolen bases with 18 on 21 tries. Seeing as how he's had just more than 50 stolen-base opportunities (defined by Baseball Reference as times on first or second base with the next base open), it's worth characterizing him as an aggressive thief. Ruiz's stolen-base count has been padded by three multi-steal games, including a four-steal effort on April 26 against the Los Angeles Angels.
Predictably, Ruiz ranks highly (tied for fifth) in pickoff throws drawn. Folks wondered how baserunners would leverage the new disengagement rules against pitchers; after all, some pitchers aren't going to feel comfortable boxing themselves in by throwing over twice. Ruiz, for his part, has stolen nine bases after seeing at least one throw, with two of those coming after seeing two throws. He's taken off on three of the four occasions he's drawn two throws, suggesting he's a fan of the new rules.
If Ruiz were to keep up his stolen-base pace over 150 games, he would finish the season with 64, the most by an Athletics player since Rickey Henderson stole 66 bags in 1998. Should Ruiz find a way to 67 steals, he would also shatter the AL single-season record for rookies that's currently held by Kenny Lofton.
At the risk of stating the obvious, Ruiz's ability to get aboard will ultimately determine his output. He entered Monday batting .270/.331/.362, but his on-base percentage was inflated by nine hit-by-pitches (versus six walks). We will note Ruiz was struck by 27 pitches last year in the minors, suggesting his tendency to get nicked by pitches in the lead arm/elbow is a sustainable trait and not a small-sample blip.
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Acuña is no stranger to big stolen-base totals. He nearly recorded a 40-40 effort in 2019, and he's more than halfway (17 on 19 tries) to last season's total (29) in almost 80 fewer games. He's on pace for 64 steals in 150 games. The Braves, for whatever it's worth, haven't had a player clear 50 steals since Otis Nixon swiped 72 back in 1991.
It should qualify as no surprise that Acuña too is drawing a lot of interest from pitchers. As of the weekend, he led the majors in pickoff throws drawn with 35. That includes eight situations where he's drawn two pickoff throws.
Unlike Ruiz, Acuña hasn't been nearly as aggressive when he's taken pitchers to the brink. Just one of his steals came after a pair of throws, and that was his first of the year. (Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin had Acuña leaning on his first throw, but they were unable to get the out. Corbin threw over again before Acuña swiped second.) Be it by coincidence or design, Acuña's stolen-base sweetspot has been after one throw. Eight of his steals (or more than half) have stemmed from that situation.
Acuña, for his part, has had many more stolen-base opportunities than Ruiz but still has fewer attempts. We think there are a few obvious reasons for that discrepancy in rate, including how the Braves are more likely to hit a home run (thereby rendering the extra base irrelevant) and how the A's are more aggressive on the basepaths in general. Whatever the case, it's clearly not preventing Acuña from getting his fair share of steals, and from potentially making a run at his second career 30-30 season.
