How the AL West was won: The road to the playoffs as Mariners, Rangers and Astros fight for a division win

As September looms, one division race towers over all others when it comes to intrigue and the promise of a white-knuckled finish. That would be the American League West. 

At this writing, the Mariners – buoyed by a 30-12 mark in the second half – are in first place. Just a game back are the Rangers and Astros. While the AL East is still tight at the top, no other division besides the AL West has three teams so close to first place. As such, a closer examination of the AL West and the determinative month ahead is in order. Let's undertake that now. 

What's at stake

Thanks to the revised playoff structure, quite a bit hangs in the balance. Each league sends six teams to the postseason – the three division winners and three wild-card entrants. The top two division winners earn a bye through the opening, best-of-three Wild Card Series and go straight to the best-of-five Division Series. That's a huge incentive to win your respective flag and also finish with one of the top two records among division winners. Speaking of which, the AL East winner and AL West winner are all but guaranteed to earn those byes. While it's possible the Twins – in command of the AL Central at this writing – could hawk down the AL West winner, the deficit is substantial at this late hour. As such, it's very likely that a coveted bye is at stake when it comes to the AL West race. 

As well, the runners-up in the West are far from guaranteed a wild-card spot. Right now, the Astros and Rangers are tied for the second spot in the AL, but the Blue Jays are close behind and real threats to bump one of the AL West runners-up from the playoff fray. As well, the Red Sox are still within plausible range of wild-card position. 

Add it all up, and, yes, there's plenty of incentive for the M's, Astros, and Rangers to wind up on top. 

Injuries

When it comes to sidelined AL West contributors who figure to return at some point over the final month-plus of regular season, each of these three teams have situations to monitor. 

The Mariners' most notable absence is that of 24-year-old outfielder Jarred Kelenic, who put himself on ice on July 20 when he kicked a cooler in frustration and broke his left foot. While it's not yet certain when he'll return to the active roster, he'll soon begin a minor-league rehab assignment. "It's not going to be a one- or two-day thing," general manager Justin Hollander said recently of Kelenic's forthcoming assignment. "I don't want to set a number and have that be either way too long or way too short. That will be up to the medical people to determine."

Kelenic overall has enjoyed a productive 2023 in Seattle, but his level of production had slacked off following a hot first month of the season. As well, the M's have enjoyed fairly strong production from left field in Kelenic's absence. 

As for the Rangers, they're presently without two core contributors: right-handed starter Nathan Eovaldi and rookie third baseman Josh Jung. Eovaldi, who may have been in line for some AL Cy Young support before a forearm strain sidelined him in the middle of July, is working his way back. It's possible he's back in the Texas rotation by early September, but that timeline is a bit uncertain because he might be headed out on a minor-league rehab assignment. Meanwhile, Jung, an All-Star this season and one of Texas' most productive bats in 2023, fractured his thumb in early August while attempting to make a play on a line drive. The current expectation is that he'll be able to return before the end of the regular season, albeit late in September. 

For the Astros, it's all about veteran outfielder Michael Brantley. The 36-year-old's return from shoulder surgery is nearly complete, and he'll soon see game action for Houston for the time since June of last year. Brantley's recent history suggests he'll still be a reliable producer at the plate. He'll give the reigning champs another useful bat to put in the DH and left field mix. The Astros also need help against right-handed pitching, and Brantley should certainly address that shortcoming. 

The schedule ahead

We typically don't see huge differences in strength of schedule in MLB, at least within the same division, but the margins in play still merit mentioning. Here's a look at what's ahead for each of these three teams. 

Team

Remaining opponents' average winning %

Home games left

Road games left

Mariners

.511

15

16

Rangers

.520

15

16

Astros

.495

15

14

Again, we're not looking at wide margins, but it's fair to characterize this aspect as "advantage Astros." Specifically, Houston has a total of nine games remaining against the A's and Royals. Elsewhere, the Mariners and Rangers will go head-to-head seven times within the final 10 games of the regular season. 

Who's been the best so far at an underlying level?

Obviously, actual records are the most important thing, but underlying indicators have significant value when projecting performance moving forward. Run differential is one such indicator, and another is the BaseRuns system available at FanGraphs. It strips away the luck and hit-sequencing noise built into runs scored and runs allowed and gets at an even more fundamental evaluation of team quality. These points favor Texas.

Do the Rangers have a bit of a higher performance ceiling the rest of the way? You can argue they do based on those above numbers. That said, the injury considerations noted above must be taken into account. 

Tiebreakers

Playoff expansion brought an end to any "Game 163s" that in days bygone broke ties for division titles and wild-card berths. Now, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, and that could obviously come into play in determining the AL West champ for 2023. Here's what you need to know on that front. 

Since teams play divisional opponents an odd number of times during the regular season, no other tiebreakers will be required. It will all come down to head-to-head records.

Now let's enjoy the coming mayhem out west. 

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