The calendar has flipped to May and the Pittsburgh Pirates -- yes, the Pirates -- sit atop the standings in the National League. Losers of 101 and 100 games the last two seasons, the Pirates have won 20 of their first 29 games this year, their best 29-game start since the 1992 team opened 21-8. That team went 96-66 in the last year of the Barry Bonds era.
"Everybody is bringing that intensity every day and understanding that we are boxers in a ring, and you have to go out there and continue to keep fighting," veteran lefty Rich Hill told MLB.com this past weekend. "That's one of the best analogies I can come up with. When that bell rings, it's time to go. We get in between the lines and we are the aggressor. If we continue to keep that mindset, continue to keep that fight, good things are going to happen."
Playing .500 ball from here on out gets the Pirates to 87 wins, which would be their most since 2015 and possibly enough to secure a postseason berth. Playing .450 ball -- that's roughly a 90-loss pace -- still gets Pittsburgh to 80 wins. It would be be their best season since 2018. Point is, the Pirates have started very well and have meaningfully changed their season outlook.
How have they done it? Can they continue doing it? Here's a look at what's going right for the Pirates and what may come next.
1. They are leaning on breaking balls
Fastballs have never been better than they are right now. Fastballs have also never been used less than they are right now. Despite the continued increase in velocity -- the average four-seam fastball is 93.8 mph this year, up from 92.5 mph a decade ago -- pitchers are using fastballs less frequently. Only 54.7% of all pitches are fastballs this season. It was 60.7% just five years ago.
Why are teams throwing fewer fastballs despite the increase in velocity? Because breaking balls and offspeed pitches are harder to hit. That's really all there is to it. Here are the league-wide numbers in the early going this season:
Fastballs
54.7%
.267
.442
20.8%
Breaking balls
31.7%
.218
.363
32.1%
Offspeed
12.7%
.236
.361
32.6%
This is the golden age of pitching backward. It is commonplace to see a 2-0 or 3-1 or even a 3-0 slider these days. The fastball is essentially a show-me pitch. Breaking balls and offspeed pitches are hard to hit, so pitchers throw them a lot. That as much as anything has contributed to the league-wide decline in batting average. It's not all the shift and launch angle.
The Pirates are at the forefront of the anti-fastball philosophy. Only the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants throw fewer fastballs and more breaking balls. Here are the numbers on Pittsburgh's pitch selection in recent years:
Fastballs
54.6% (7th fewest in MLB)
51.4% (4th fewest in MLB)
47.4% (3rd fewest in MLB)
Breaking balls
32.1% (7th most in MLB)
35.3% (5th most in MLB)
43.9% (most in MLB)
Offspeed pitches
13.0% (15th in MLB)
12.2% (13th fewest in MLB)
8.7% (4th fewest in MLB)
The Pirates are throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking balls (not so much offspeed pitches) with each passing year. And it's working! Through 29 games Pittsburgh ranks seventh with a 3.55 ERA, and all those non-fastballs keep hard contact to a minimum. The Pirates have an 87.8 mph average exit velocity allowed, fourth lowest in baseball and comfortably below the 89.0 mph league average. This pitching staff is not easy to square up.
"The commitment part of it is probably the biggest thing from our pitchers. But when you show them the evidence behind it, it gets easier to go along with the plan," pitching coach Oscar Marin told SI.com about the team's commitment to breaking balls last month. "... The whole thing with timelines is that everyone figures it out at their own rate. The only thing we try to do with our guys on a timeline level is -- how can we get them the most informed that they've ever been? And that probably takes a couple of years."
2. They're platoon happy
For all intents and purposes, the Pirates have four everyday players: Ke'Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Carlos Santana. Their two young cornerstones and two veteran mentors are in the lineup every game. Shortstop Oneil Cruz was in this group as well prior to his ankle injury, though he'll be out long-term. Possibly for the rest of the season. That's unfortunate.
The rest of the lineup is largely platoon options. Jack Suwinski crushes righties. Connor Joe has historically done his best work against lefties. Switch-hitter Rodolfo Castro has bludgeoned southpaws. Thanks to their mixing and matching -- not to mention three switch-hitters (Castro, Reynolds, Santana) -- Pirates hitters are at the platoon advantage more often than not. Here are the highest rates of plate appearances with the platoon advantage this year:
Arizona Diamondbacks: 67.2%Baltimore Orioles: 66.2%Pittsburgh Pirates: 64.5%Cleveland Guardians: 64.4%New York Mets: 63.9%(MLB average: 53.7%)
The platoon advantage doesn't guarantee success. You can't just throw any lefty up there and expect him to hit righties. You need talented hitters, first and foremost, and putting them at the platoon advantage as often as Pittsburgh has allows that talent to really shine. The Pirates have good hitters. It starts there. And they get the most out of those hitters by putting them in positions to succeed so often. Check out the numbers:
Batting average
.264 (5th in MLB)
.247
On-base percentage
.343 (3rd in MLB)
.321
Slugging percentage
.449 (2nd in MLB)
.407
OPS+
116 (4th in MLB)
100
Walk rate
10.1% (5th in MLB)
8.8%
Strikeout rate
20.5% (6th in MLB)
23.0%
Exit velocity
90.0 mph (5th in MLB)
89.0 mph
Pittsburgh's offense has been awfully impressive. They don't strike out much, they hit the ball harder than most teams, and they grind pitchers down and talk walks. Again, it starts with talented hitters, and the Pirates have more than a few now. Combine talent with optimized usage (i.e. platoons) and you get a top offense. It is no accident they're scoring the fifth most runs per game (5.38).
3. They do the little things
I contend defense and baserunning are actually huge things, though catching the ball and running the bases well are often referred to as the little things, so we'll call them the little things here. No matter what you call them, the Pirates are good at them. They run the bases well and they've also improved their team defense.
You can ask the Los Angeles Dodgers about the havoc the Pirates wreak on the bases. The Dodgers have struggled all season preventing stolen bases, and when they visited PNC Park last week, the Pirates shoved that weakness down their throat. They went 12 for 13 stealing bases in the three-game series and stole at least three bases in each game.
"We've done a really nice job in the early going in how we've exploited it," Pirates manager Derek Shelton told the Associated Press last month, referring to MLB's new rules encouraging stolen bases (larger bases, limit on pitcher disengagements, etc.).
Running the bases well is about much more than stealing bases though. The Pirates have a 44.9% tag up rate, the highest in baseball by more than three percentage points, meaning their runners tag up and advance on fly balls more than any other team (the MLB average is 29.0%). They also haven't had a single runner thrown out going first-to-third on a single.
FanGraphs' all-encompassing baserunning metric says the Pirates have been 2.4 runs better than average on the bases, which places them ninth in baseball. That accounts for stolen bases, taking the extra base, advancing on wild pitches, etc. A year ago the Pirates were at 6.7 runs above average for the entire season. They're nearly halfway there in only 29 games. The 2023 team is aggressive on the bases and quite successful too.
As for defense, the Pirates have increased their defensive efficiency from .677 last year (fourth lowest in baseball) to .691 this year (exactly the league average). That means Pittsburgh has converted 69.1% of balls in play into outs this season, and while they're average more than best in the league, average is a significant upgrade from where they were a year ago.
Poor defense hurts in so many ways. It's not just fewer outs, more baserunners, and more runs. It's also more pitches for the pitcher -- more high-stress pitches because there's a runner(s) on base -- so the starter doesn't go as deep into the game and the bullpen is taxed. Defenders spend more time on their feet. Everyone has to work that much harder with a shaky defense.
The difference between the 2022 Pirates and 2023 Pirates is one additional batted ball turned into an out every five games or so. I know that doesn't sound like much, but it adds up across the long 162-game season. And, of course, that one extra out every fifth game can come in a high leverage situation. It can be impactful and the Pirates are catching the ball much better in 2023.
4. The vibes are great
The vibes were not good coming into the season. The Pirates were coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons and Reynolds, their best player, requested a trade over the winter. Fast forward a few weeks and now the vibes are immaculate. The team is winning, Reynolds signed an extension, they have a home run sword, and Drew Maggi got called up after spending 13 years in the minors. What a great story.
Do the Pirates have good vibes because they're winning, or are they winning because they have good vibes? It doesn't matter. The Pirates are winning and playing well, and they're having a lot of fun doing it. There are few things in sports more enjoyable than a young team coming into its own. Players and fans in Pittsburgh are experiencing that this season. Everyone is having a blast.
"It's a fun vibe," Joe told the Associated Press. "It has been all year. We're continuing it. We're dancing. We're celebrating everything. The small things. The homers. It's a good vibe in the clubhouse. We're happy and looking to continue this run."
The big question: Can they keep it up?
The Pirates rank 28th with a $75 million payroll and small payroll teams typically have depth issues. My primary concern with this club is their pitching and whether they have enough arms to get through the long season. Youngsters Roansy Contreras and Johan Oviedo are likely on an innings limit, and history suggests 43-year-old Rich Hill won't give the Pirates more than 130-140 innings. Ace Mitch Keller and journeyman Vince Velasquez are the club's best bets to eat innings this season.
Pittsburgh's top depth options are Triple-A righties Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester, who also figure to be on some sort of workload limit. J.T. Brubaker, last year's Opening Day starter, swingman Max Kranick, and top prospect Mike Burrows will all miss the season with Tommy John surgery (Kranick may be able to return late in the year), which takes away a layer of depth. Right now, the Pirates are getting great starting pitching. What happens as the innings climb when we get deeper into the season?
Now that they're transitioning out of their rebuild and into contention, buying at the trade deadline should be on the table. Pittsburgh could look at a rental starter like, say, Lucas Giolito to help get them through the season. Depending on the price, that could make sense, sure. The Pirates would be wise to target someone with long-term control, however. For example, if the Chicago White Sox sell, don't the Pirates have to call about Dylan Cease? Ask the Miami Marlins about Jesús Luzardo too. Worst case, they say no.
There is concern within the game about pitchers wearing down later in the season because of the pitch timer and the quickened pace. I'm not sure how valid that concern is, but it is a concern, and the Pirates don't appear to be especially well equipped to deal with rotation attrition. Not unless they push guys like Contreras, Ortiz, Oviedo, and Priester to dangerously high innings totals, which they obviously should not do. The rotation holding up will determine whether Pittsburgh stays in the race more than anything.
This is a measuring stick week for the Pirates. They begin a three-game series with the MLB-best Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Tuesday night, then they go home for a three-game weekend series against a Toronto Blue Jays team that has the sport's sixth-best record. This will be a nice little test for Pittsburgh.
Regardless of this week's results, the Pirates have earned their 20-9 record. They're scoring the fifth-most runs per game (5.38) and allowing the fourth-fewest runs per game (3.72), and their run differential supports their record. There are some rotation depth concerns and the toughest part of their schedule is still to come, but the Pirates have legitimately improved this season. If nothing else, they've banked wins early and put themselves in position to make a serious run at a postseason spot this summer.
"We're resilient. We play hard," Shelton told MLB.com recently. "There are a lot of things we've done well. We've caught the baseball, we've executed, and we just need to continue to do that as May starts."
