Cubs slugger Kris Bryant hit a walk-off home run on Tuesday night, giving the Cubs their 17th win in last 22 games and putting them back on top in the NL Central. Heading into the game, Bryant's line on the season didn't look like that of a star, especially against what Javier Baez and Willson Contreras have been doing. He was also lagging behind his Bryzzo partner, Anthony Rizzo.
There are lots of reasons to believe Bryant has been morphing into his 2016 self -- when he won NL MVP -- the last few weeks, however.
It wasn't the case early in the season. There were legitimate concerns. No, not because Bryant was hitting .219/.324/.344 through 17 games. That's a small sample and some players start slow. It's happened throughout history, even with the best players.
The concern was that Bryant was going through a spell where he wasn't really squaring anything up, particularly to the pull field. He hadn't hit a home run since Opening Day and he was having trouble squaring up high velocity. For those familiar with his work, a tell-tale sign of him not being right is not catching up to high heat.
Also, though Bryant and the Cubs staff repeatedly said he was 100 percent healthy after last season's bout with a shoulder injury that pretty well wrecked his season, the lack of power and turning on high velocity left lingering concerns, even if some thought they were unfounded.
Things appear to be on track now.
After the walk-off on Tuesday, Bryant said he had felt like his at-bats had been going well for weeks and the results weren't necessarily showing up until very recently. Here's a good example. On April 30, Bryant went 1 for 4 in Seattle.
Here's a chart of Bryant's exit velocity per game in his career, via the excellent Baseball Savant. Focus on that high point on the far right. That was April 30. It was the second-highest average velocity of his career with the first being all the way back in May of 2015.
baseballsavant.com
I remember growing up, if I had a day where I scorched the ball at people but made outs, my father always used to stress it would "all even out." That's all we're saying here. Bryant had really started to hit the ball hard, so the results were coming. Bryant had actually been hitting it hard several days before April 30, but that just felt like the zenith of the bad fortune he was enduring on batted balls.
Bryant has now homered in three straight games for the first time in his career. Since those first 17 games, he's hitting .286/.438/.696 with six doubles, a triple, five homers, 17 RBI, 14 runs and 14 walks compared to 10 strikeouts in 73 plate appearances. The poor luck on balls in play shows up with the .262 BABIP despite Bryant being fast and hitting the ball hard.
To further alleviate any concerns, let's talk again about the shoulder. Remember how he finished his swing before late in 2018? Let's look at one of his most famous home runs.
See that one-handed high finish?
Late in 2018, Bryant was finishing with both hands on the bat to protect his shoulder. It just looked awkward.
Here's a home run he hit Monday night:
Looks familiar to when he was the MVP.
It's not a coincidence I picked that one. At 111.4 miles per hour, that was the hardest ball Bryant has hit since 2017 (via baseballsavant.com again). He has already hit five balls harder this season than he did all of last year.
Oh, and that talk about him not turning around velocity? Check out the walk-off from Tuesday night and pay attention the velocity reading in the score bug:
That was 99 miles per hour from Marlins hurler Adam Conley (yes, relatively no-name relievers on the Marlins throw 99 now).
Bryant's season line is now .250/.381/.508 (131 OPS+ and please realize to pay attention to more than just the batting average) after a pretty terrible first few weeks. He looks like he's the 2016 version right now.
Using Savant's statcast, we can see that Bryant has hit with the barrel 11.2 percent of the time after it being sub-10 percent in each of the last two years. His average exit velocity is actually higher than it was in 2016. He's walking more and striking out less than 2016. Oh, and his hard hit percentage is 38.2 after just 33.5 last year and 36.4 in 2017 (it was 38.9 percent in 2016).
This all after a relatively miserable first 17 games.
Look beyond the numbers and just watch him. Use the good ol' eye test. He looks back. He's always going to be mild-mannered compared to his three slugging teammates, but he was a bit animated running around the bases on that walkoff.
Team this Bryant with the versions of Rizzo, Baez and Contreras the Cubs are getting and it's one of the most formidable murderer's rows in baseball.
