The 2023 Men's College World Series will crown a champion on Monday night with Game 3 between the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers. The Tigers took Game 1 on Saturday, while the Gators won Game 2 on Sunday in blowout fashion. One of the biggest subplots entering Game 3 concerns the potential availability of LSU ace Paul Skenes.
He last pitched on Thursday, throwing 120 pitches over the course of an eight-inning gem versus Wake Forest. Add in his previous outing, and he's thrown more than 240 pitches in the College World Series. Skenes certainly isn't an option to start -- that honor is reserved for Thatcher Hurd -- but might he pitch in relief, albeit on just three days' rest?
The Tigers, to this point, have been noncommittal about the possibility.
"Yeah, as I talked about last time, we do a process to figure that out, which we'll do," coach Jay Johnson told Koki Riley of the Lafayette Daily Advertiser. "And that doesn't take place until (the) day of (the) game. So we have to do that with all of them.
"You're going on game eight in 10 days. So we have to be mindful of all of that, and we will be. And we'll see who is available."
Skenes, for his part, told ESPN sideline reporter Kris Budden on Sunday that he would not be available for Game 2, but "maybe tomorrow," according to On3.
The calculus is more complicated for Skenes, Johnson, and the rest of the LSU program than it appears at first blush. It's not just about winning this game and the title; Skenes is less than two weeks away from being selected early in the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft -- some even think he should go No. 1 -- and if he were to pitch on Monday and suffer an injury, he would jeopardize his standing and his likelihood of receiving a hefty signing bonus. This is not a decision that LSU should make lightly, in other words.
You might be wondering what makes Skenes such an intriguing prospect. Here's what CBS Sports wrote about him recently while ranking him as the best pitcher available in this year's draft:
Skenes is an imposing figure with upper-90s velocity and a strikeout rate near 48% against SEC hitters. About 15 years ago, that would've been enough to land him higher on this list (and the belief is he might go as early as No. 2 overall, with several sources identifying him as the Nationals' kind of pitcher). Those within the industry are convinced that ball-tracking data has improved their ability to evaluate pitches. Those advancements have made Skenes a divisive figure, with scouts and analysts who spoke to CBS Sports expressing reservations about his fastball shape. The short version is that his four-seamer features minimal separation between its induced vertical break and its horizontal break, putting it in the "dead zone." The fear is Skenes' four-seamer will play down as a result, causing him to underperform draft night expectations. Consider Nathan Eovaldi, another big-armed righty with minimal separation; prior to this year, opponents had hit .300 or better against his fastball in three consecutive seasons. Skenes' velocity may mitigate some of the effect, and it's possible his employer will help him find a better shape, or will have him shift to his sinker (his current one features more run than Dustin May's). Factor in the probabilistic analysis argument that arises whenever a pitcher is part of a class loaded with good hitters, and that's why he's lower than you might have expected, even if he still goes No. 2.
In other words, Skenes could be the difference maker if he appears on Monday night. We'll have to see what considerations win out for Johnson and crew, and how far the Tigers are willing to go in order secure a national title.
