Last week the San Diego Padres made the boldest move of the offseason, signing free-agent infielder Manny Machado to a long-term contract worth $300 million. The Padres' lack of recent success is no secret -- they haven't enjoyed a winning season since 2010, and haven't appeared in the postseason since 2006 -- which gives the Machado signing an extra oomph. It isn't just an opportunistic signing, it's a flag-planting demonstration to inspire the fan base.
The next big step for the Padres is to author a winning season -- and they're projected to come close, with 79 wins forecasted by both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs. SportsLine has them finishing last in the NL West with 69 wins. Eventually, the Padres will have to become serious contenders, or risk losing the good will they've conjured.
We're well-meaning but nosy, so we figured we'd help the Padres' cause by offering four pieces of instruction to the Padres as they embark on the Machado era.
The Padres officially introduced All-Star free agent Manny Machado at a press conference in Arizona last week.
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1. Don't blame Machado
We're starting here for good reason.
Whenever a bad team signs a good player for lots of money, there's a tendency for that player to become the scapegoat if and when the team fails to live up to expectations. It happened in Seattle with Robinson Cano, and in Texas with Alex Rodriguez. The Padres probably won't be a good team in 2019, and there's no telling what 2020 holds. There's at least a chance the Padres will enter 2021 still hoping to end their playoff drought. If so, Machado is certain to catch flak -- the blame for bad teams, it seems, falls on their best players for all that ails them.
We're begging the Padres (and their fans) to avoid falling victim to that line of thinking -- provided, of course, Machado holds up his end of the bargain and produces like one of the top players in the game.
Ownership and management both knew what they were getting into when they signed the contract. They knew Machado wasn't likely to run out every single grounder; they knew that he would make the roster-building process easier, but not easy; and they knew that they were making a sizable financial commitment. When adversity hits, let's hope they remember that.
Otherwise, expect this whole arrangement to be remembered as a disaster.
2. Don't rush the kids
From one exhibition of discipline to another.
The Padres might have the best farm system in baseball. They certainly have the top prospect, in Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as a lot of other exciting youngsters coming through the pipeline.
Even so, our plea is to not rush those prospects through the system in a misguided attempt to compete sooner than later. The development of these players, particularly the pitchers, is crucial and will likely determine how good of a team the Padres field over the next five to seven years. Asking MacKenzie Gore or Adrian Morejon or Luis Patino to pitch in the majors before they're ready would be a mistake.
Do note we're not encouraging the Padres to suppress service time or hold down a prospect who seems ready for the Show. We're just saying don't do anything ridiculous or potentially harmful, like asking Gore to pitch in the majors this season when he's never been above A-ball.
It seems like an admittedly small threat, but one we wanted to address all the same.
3. and 4. Excel at self-scouting, remain opportunistic
We're lumping our last two pieces of advice together.
When we say "excel at self-scouting" we mean make sure you know your prospects better than any other team in the game. Know their strengths and weaknesses, and be willing to make honest, if sometimes unpopular evaluations.
The reality is that not every prospect is going to work out. The teams who can figure out which of their players are likeliest to fall short (or likeliest to excel) have an obvious leg up. It's part of what allowed the Braves to build a dynasty during the '90s, and what has made teams like the Nationals so good over the last decade: They never seemed to trade anyone they would miss.
That leads us to the other bit of advice: Don't stop swinging for the fences.
The Padres were reportedly interested in Noah Syndergaard and Corey Kluber this winter (and will presumably be interested in them again this coming winter). They were in on Chris Archer at the deadline, and league sources told CBS Sports they may might have landed him if the Rays didn't have concerns about Francisco Mejia's framing. Oh well. San Diego should continue to be aggressive in its pursuit of impact-caliber players, especially starting pitchers. There's simply no reason to rest and assume every pitching prospect is going to work out fine. Instead, keep checking in and examining every possibility. You never know when it might lead to something good. Just look at the Machado signing.
