After a totally forgettable first round of the playoffs, Wednesday was fruitful here at Best Bets Central. Virtual thank you notes to Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw and everyone who took part in hitting the under in the Phillies-Braves game. The result was a +225 day on four bets. That'll play!
Let's keep the momentum rolling.
We've only got one game on the schedule Thursday, thanks to the weather not cooperating in New York, so we'll grab an extra prop.
Let's get to it.
Mariners-Astros OVER 7 runs (+100)
The tendency here might be to take the under, as two All-Stars are squaring off on the mound and a good number of playoff games to this point have hit the under. I'm gonna stick with scoring here and this isn't a high number anyway (a 4-3 game gets us a push).
Game 1 was a high-scoring affair that had the likely AL Cy Young winner getting crushed.
On the Mariners' side, they've been swinging hot bats. They closed the regular season with 21 runs in their final three games. They actually averaged over five runs a game with a .768 OPS in their last 14 games. Then they scored 14 runs in the Wild Card Series and seven more in Game 1 here.
I also wonder about Astros starter Framber Valdez and his season-long workload. He tossed 70 2/3 innings in 2020, 134 2/3 innings last season and 201 1/3 this season. There's a strong possibility he'll show signs of fatigue at some point.
I fully expect Luis Castillo to throw the ball well, but the Astros are absolutely relentless, especially at home (see Game 1).
More than anything, it's a gut feeling. A lot of people are going to be on the under. I like at least a moderate level of scoring.
Julio Rodríguez, OVER 0.5 runs (+117)
We already hit this prop in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and we're going to stick with what works. The likely AL Rookie of the Year scored 29 runs in the Mariners' last 35 games in the regular season. He scored twice in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and three times in Game 1 of this series.
He hits leadoff on a team that's been scoring runs at a high rate. He runs well and steals bases. I'm already picking the over, so who is likely to score us runs?
Yordan Alvarez, OVER 1.5 total bases (+100)
Let's ride the wave here, right? Two singles or any extra-base hit gets us the win. Alvarez had seven total bases in Game 1. He was over well before the final at-bat. If there's anything to cling to here, it's that Castillo was throwing really hard in his Wild Card Series start in Toronto and Alvarez handles velocity as well as anyone in baseball.
