The New York Mets entered Wednesday with a 20-23 record, good for fourth place in the National League East. The Mets, whose estimated $346 million payroll is by far the largest in Major League Baseball, have had a poor May, opening with a 5-11 stretch that has seen them outscored by 27 runs. There's more than enough daylight left for the Mets to course-correct, but to this point it's fair to label them a disappointment.
As of Wednesday morning, the Mets appear ready to shake up things, at least within reason. Infield prospect Mark Vientos was reportedly on his way to join the big-league club. It's unclear how the Mets will create a spot for him on the active roster, though it should not come as a surprise if they shed an underperforming veteran. Vientos, fresh off stinging the ball on a consistent basis in Triple-A, should provide a boost. Be that as it may be, he's only one player; the Mets need more than him alone to get right.
So, just what else has to change in order for the Mets to get back in the race? Below, CBS Sports has identified three dynamics worth paying attention to moving forward.
1. Better offense
We noted in the introduction that the Mets could get some offensive help from Vientos if he's able to make a successful transfer to the majors. They could surely use it.
The Mets entered Wednesday ranked 21st in runs scored and 20th in home runs. They're also 17th in steals, meaning that this is a lineup that's blessed with neither power nor speed. They've given at least 80 plate appearances to 10 different players, and only two of them (Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo) have cleared a 110 OPS+. Everyone else is either just above average or well below it -- the latter applies to their most-days reserves: Tommy Pham, Eduardo Escobar, and Luis Guillorme.
It's clear that the Mets need to hit better. In particular, they need to get more production from behind the plate (easier typed than done) and in the corner outfield spots, where Starling Marte (64 OPS+) and Mark Canha (87 OPS+) have struggled. Take a look at their percentile rank in some important categories:
Marte
20th percentile
22nd percentile
34th percentile
Canha
31st percentile
34rd percentile
30th percentile
That's not ideal from any corner outfielder, let alone from two who are in their mid-30s and who aren't grading well defensively, according to ball-tracking metrics. We're not quite two months into the season, so you don't want to ring the alarm too early -- sometimes players just get off to slow starts -- but if both continue to struggle between now and the deadline the Mets will have to make a call on how much faith they have in either or both of them returning to form down the stretch.
2. Better health
The Mets rebuilt their rotation over the winter, performing a free-agent lineswap. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker were replaced by Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and José Quintana. It's illustrative of the Mets' availability woes to date to note that the Mets' projected starting five -- the aforementioned three, plus veteran holdovers Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco -- have combined to start just 19 of New York's first 43 games, or about 44% of their contests. Not how they drew it up.
Now, to be fair, Scherzer missed time because he was suspended for grip-enhancing substances. But Verlander only recently rejoined the rotation, and both Carrasco and Quintana remain on the injured list. (Carrasco will make his return to the rotation this weekend; Quintana isn't expected back before the All-Star Game.) Predictably, the Mets have been one of the most banged-up teams this season on a counting basis.
The Mets are one of two clubs to have already lost more than 500 days due to injury, according to Spotrac's data. (That the other club is the Yankees suggests that perhaps there's something present in the New York City atmosphere causing injuries.) The "who" matters as much as the "how many": the Mets have largely been without Verlander and Carrasco, starting backstop Omar Narváez, and closer Edwin Díaz (out for the season after suffering a knee injury during March's World Baseball Classic).
You can argue that the Mets should've known they were tempting fate when they constructed a rotation that had one pitcher younger than 34, but that's not how this works. Pitchers of all ages can (and often do) get hurt. That's life. Look no further than the Tampa Bay Rays, who are currently without four starting pitchers: Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, and Shane Baz. Only Springs is over 30.
The thing about health is that it's hard to predict. In some cases, you can assume that matters will even out. But it is possible that the Mets will remain snakebitten more than the average club, in which case they'll need to find a way to buttress their depth.
3. Better 'luck'
Speaking of matters that you'd expect to even out, the Mets are 6-7 so far in games decided by a single run. To put that into perspective, consider that the Miami Marlins are 13-1 in such contests; the Atlanta Braves are 8-4; and the Philadelphia Phillies are 6-4. In other words, the Mets have suffered only two fewer losses in one-run games than the three teams stationed ahead of them in the NL East have combined.
There are a few factors that can help explain extreme performance in this category -- the qualities of one's bullpen and manager being the most obvious -- but those cases tend to be rare. It's fair to state the Mets would be in a better spot with a healthy Díaz because … well, duh. New York's bullpen hasn't been a sieve, however. They rank 14th in ERA as a unit, and they've been responsible for the second fewest "meltdowns" in the majors. ("Meltdowns" is a FanGraphs stat based on Win Probability Added.)
To take it a step further, take a look at how the Mets' highest-leverage relievers have performed so far. (Note that "leverage index" is a fancypants way of defining the importance of a situation based on the score and the base-out state; anything above "1.0" is deemed to be a high-pressure situation.)
Maybe we're missing something, but for now we maintain that the Mets (and the teams they're chasing in the East) will play closer to .500 ball in one-run games heading forward. As that happens, the Mets will gain ground naturally.
