The New York Mets will look to salvage a series split when they take on the Miami Marlins in the fourth game of a key National League East Division series on Thursday. The Mets (56-51), first in the division, have struggled of late, losing seven of their past 11 games and two of three in the series. New York, which will be without closer Edwin Diaz who was placed on the paternity list on Wednesday, has lost four of its last five games against Miami. The Marlins (46-62), fifth in the NL East, are 5-5 in their last 10.
First pitch is set for 12:10 p.m. ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Mets lead the all-time series 249-221, including a 118-115 edge in games played in Miami. New York is a -125 favorite on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Marlins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is eight. Before making any Marlins vs. Mets picks, make sure to check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model, which simulates every pitch of every game 10,000 times, is a profitable 140-113 on top-rated MLB picks through 18 weeks in the 2021 season. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on Mets vs. Marlins and revealed its predictions and best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see its MLB picks. Here are the MLB odds and betting trends for Marlins vs. Mets:
Mets vs. Marlins money line: New York Mets -125, Miami +105 Mets vs. Marlins run line: New York Mets -1.5 Mets vs. Marlins over-under: 8 runs NYM: The Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 MIA: The under is 4-1-1 in the Marlins' last six home games vs. a left-handed starterWhy you should back the Mets
The Mets are expected to send left-hander Rich Hill (6-4, 4.10 ERA) to the mound. He will be making his third start since being acquired from Tampa Bay before the trade deadline. He has two no-decisions as a Met, allowing seven earned runs in 10 innings. In his last outing against Cincinnati, he allowed four earned runs on five hits in five innings. He walked one and struck out four. In five career outings, including four starts, against the Marlins, Hill is 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA.
Offensively, the Mets are powered by first baseman Pete Alonso, who is batting .254 with 24 homers, 63 RBIs and 50 runs scored. He was 2-for-5 with a home run in Monday's 6-3 loss to Miami. In 33 career games against Miami, he is hitting .216 with two doubles, 12 homers and 21 RBIs. He has 22 multi-hit games, including three three-hit performances.
Why you should back the Marlins
Miami is expected to send All-Star left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.45 ERA) to the mound. Rogers has not allowed more than three runs in any outing, but has not gotten a win since June 10 against Colorado. In his last start, Rogers allowed two earned runs on five hits in 3 2/3 innings in Miami's 4-2 loss to the New York Yankees. In 18 games this season, he has allowed two or fewer runs in a start.
First baseman Jesus Aguilar has had a solid season and has hits in eight of 11 games, including three multi-hit performances. For the year, Aguilar is batting .266 with 19 homers, 76 RBIs and 37 runs scored. He has hit Mets pitching well throughout his career. In 35 games, he is batting .292 with nine doubles, one triple, four homers and 19 RBIs.
How to make Mets vs. Marlins picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the run total, as the simulation says the starting pitchers from both teams will combine to allow more than four runs in 10 combined innings, and it also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mets vs. Marlins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mets vs. Marlins spread to jump on Thursday, all from the advanced model that has been profitable on MLB picks in 2021, and find out.
