The winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19 brought us slow-moving hot stove seasons that resulted in many free agents signing smaller than expected contracts. In some cases, free agents aren't getting contracts at all (Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). The second and third tier free agents have had it the worst.
MLB teams have successfully trimmed player spending -- the average salary declined for only the fourth time in the last 50 years in 2019 -- and, as a result, many players are now jumping on long-term yet below-market contract extensions. Can you blame them? That big free-agent payday is not guaranteed to be there now. Cash in while you can.
Since the calendar flipped to 2019, eight impending free agents sign multiyear contract extensions. These eight players all passed on a chance to test free agency following the 2019 season and instead took the guaranteed money now. The list:
Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260 million.Chris Sale, Red Sox: 5 years, $145 million.Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals: 5 years, $130 million.Aaron Hicks, Yankees: 7 years, $70 million plus one club option.Miles Mikolas, Cardinals: 4 years, $68 million.Justin Verlander, Astros: 2 years, $66 million.Sonny Gray, Reds: 3 years, $30.5 million plus one club option.Ryan Pressly, Astros: 2 years, $17.5 million plus one club option.What was once a strong free-agent class has thinned out. Those slow-moving 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons have led to some very good players taking themselves off the 2019-20 free-agent market entirely. Extensions have impacted future free-agent classes as well -- Alex Bregman, Blake Snell and Mike Trout all recently signed deals that buy out free-agent years -- so the domino effect is real. Free-agent spending is down and players have noticed.
"I kind of saw what Bryce (Harper) and Manny (Machado) went through and it drew a red flag for me," said Trout to reporters during his contract extension press conference this past weekend. "I talked to Manny and Bryce. It was a tough couple months in the offseason. They put it in perspective in my mind. I obviously want to be an Angel for life. That was a big key."
The best player in the game, at the height of his powers at age 27, saying the free agencies of two other prime-aged stars "drew a red flag for me" despite record revenues tells you all you need to know about free agency right now. It is broken, and teams have leveraged the broken free-agent market into club-friendly extensions. Expect more impending free agents to take themselves off the market between now and November.
That all said, the 2019-20 free-agent class is far from barren. No Arenado, no Goldschmidt, no Verlander, and no Sale certainly removes some star power. There is a strong collection of above-average infielders though, as well as a few middle of the order outfield bats, at least one bona fide ace starter, plus several quality depth players. Some assumptions before we get to the first entry into our monthly 2019-20 free-agent rankings series:
Elvis Andrus, Rangers: Won't opt out of final three years and $43 million.Jake Arrieta, Phillies: Won't opt out of final year and $20 million.Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: Won't opt out of final two years and $30 million.Yu Darvish, Cubs: Won't opt out of final four years and $81 million.Yasmani Grandal, Brewers: Will decline his half of his $16 million mutual option and test free agency.Kenley Jansen, Dodgers: Won't opt out of final two years and $38 million.J.D Martinez, Red Sox: Will opt out of final three years, $62.5 million and test free agency.Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: Won't opt out of final four years and $100 million.Chris Archer, Pirates ($9 million); Matt Carpenter, Cardinals ($18.5 million); Nelson Cruz, Twins ($12 million); Sean Doolittle, Nationals ($6.5 million); Corey Kluber, Indians ($17.5 million); Starling Marte, Pirates ($11.5 million); Jose Quintana, Cubs ($11.5 million); Anthony Rizzo, Cubs ($14.5 million) will have their club options exercised.Here, as the 2019 MLB regular season gets underway, are the top 10 players scheduled to become free agents next offseason. Weekly free agent stock watches will follow between updated rankings each month.
2019-20 Free Agent Rankings As Of Late March
The Next Five (alphabetically): OF Nicholas Castellanos; 3B Josh Donaldson; SP Rick Porcello; OF Marcell Ozuna; OF Yasiel Puig.
