Throughout the offseason when discussing the rumors regarding big-time free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, we'd inevitably hear from media, front office members and fans alike how 10-year deals "rarely work out." Examples like Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano and Miguel Cabrera are trotted out as evidence of why teams shouldn't be doing them.
It was enough to make me scream. OK, so that's just a figure of speech. I never did scream out loud. In my head, though, yes, there was screaming.
As with everything in life, context is needed. Harper and Machado are entering their age-26 seasons. So instead of saying "if Pujols signed his deal at age 26," let's run through some of these past megadeals and look at how the players who received them produced when they were at the peaks of their careers.
Albert Pujols
Let's say Pujols' 10-year, $240 million deal ran through his age-26 to age-35 seasons. Through those years, Pujols won two MVPs, hit .301/.386/.559 (155 OPS+) while averaging 36 doubles, 36 homers and 108 RBI per season. He averaged 6.2 WAR with the guidelines of 5.0+ being an All-Star level and 8.0+ being MVP-level.
Yes, there was fall-off but he averaged 8.7 WAR while hitting .330/.435/.628 (177 OPS+) with an average of 41 homers and 122 RBI through the first five years.
That's worth a hell of a lot more than $240 million.
Robinson Cano
Cano just finished his age-35 season. His last 10 years? Cano hit .305/.362/.503 (134 OPS+) while averaging 38 doubles, 25 homers and 92 RBI while playing second base the overwhelming majority of the time. He averaged 5.8 WAR per season while posting four seasons of at least seven WAR. That's worth every penny of $240 million.
Miguel Cabrera
Miggy's deal is actually eight years with two vesting options, but we're trying to illustrate just how big a difference being age 26 is as opposed to 29 or 30. Cabrera won two MVPs in his 26-35 window. He hit .321/.404/.558 (158 OPS+) with an average of 29 homers and 98 RBI. To better illustrate the huge difference between being 26 and 30 on a long-term deal, check out Cabrera from ages 26-30: .335/.419/.598 (170 OPS+), averaging 39 doubles, 38 homers and 122 RBI per season.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod's first 10-year deal was shocking to many, but he was worth it. In the following 10 seasons, he hit .299/.394/.577 (150 OPS+), averaging 42 homers and 124 RBI per season. There were three MVPs and a World Series ring in there.
Joey Votto
Votto still has six years left on his deal and that sounds pretty daunting. What if he had gotten a 10-year deal when Machado did? Well, he'd still have one year left on it, but so far he's hit .311/.436/.528 (159 OPS+) while winning an MVP and averaging 5.6 WAR per season.
Derek Jeter
He signed a 10-year deal before his age-27 season, so one year later than Machado and Harper. During that deal, Jeter hit .310/.380/.445 (117 OPS+) while averaging 32 doubles, 16 homers 72 RBI, 108 runs and 22 steals per year. You'd be hard pressed to convince me he wasn't worth it.
Troy Tulowitzki
Here's the bad one. Tulo signed his 10-year extension entering his age-26 season. He's played eight seasons since then, averaging just 105 games played per season. Still, it's really only the injuries, as he's hit .289/.360/.494 (121 OPS+) with per-162-game averages of 33 doubles, 30 homers, 98 RBI and 5.1 WAR.
This is it. Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year extension before his age-25 season so we need a lot more data to see how that one will work out and obviously we can't yet know how Machado and Harper fare.
The point here is that saying "these deals rarely work out" is missing the context that age is a huge difference-maker and pretty much any deal people are referencing with "these deals" is one that would have absolutely been a bargain had it covered the same ages as Machado and Harper's deals do. One might argue the extra three years on Harper make it bad, but I'll respond by saying less than $26 million in 2031 isn't going to bother the Phillies, especially if Harper plays at a level he's capable in the first seven or eight years of the deal.
Of course, taking this information forward, we aren't likely to have any free agents of this caliber hit free agency at such a young age until Juan Soto (who also debuted at age 19 like Harper and Machado) following the 2024 season. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 20 this season and Ronald Acuna was 20 last season.
Further, the collective bargaining agreement might have changed by then. If we do see more elite-level free agents hitting the market at ages 25-27, let's just please keep in mind that comparing a possible 10-year deal at that age to Pujols et al is folly. Prime years are a completely different animal than the 30s.
