The 2023 Major League Baseball season is exactly two weeks old. Thankfully, weather has not caused huge issues just yet and every team has played at least 11 games while no team has played more than 13. Eleven games out of a 162-game calendar is just 6.79% while 13 games is 8.02%. If this were an NFL season, we wouldn't even be to halftime of the second game.
That's way too early for any team to start celebrating or panicking. Still, it happens among fan bases, so we're going to check out just how little the panic should be for a handful of slow-starting teams.
There's a reason we're called something that is short for "fanatic," which means "marked by excessive enthusiasm and often intense uncritical devotion." See, excessive is in the definition. Of course we get carried away.
Let's just also keep in mind as we proceed forward that absolutely no fan of any team should be in a "panic" over a slow start. Now let's proceed in looking at some slow starts.
The panic meter is scaled 0-10 with 0 being not a care in the world and 10 being mass hysteria. The 0-4 side is building concern while the 6-10 side is worry building toward panic. A 5 would be the center point between "decent concern" and "slight worry."
Record: 4-8
We already knew the Phillies would be without Bryce Harper for a decent portion of the season and then Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL late in the spring. Ranger Suárez is on the injured list with an elbow issue. Then the Phillies pounced on Jacob deGrom for a big, early lead on Opening Day. Then they fell apart and got swept in Texas. They were 0-4 and 1-5. Things looked to be turning around when they won 3 of 4, a run that included a walk-off win and a 15-3 bloodbath in which the Marlins starter was Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
But then the Phillies lost two more. They've overall lost 2/3 of their games and dropped a home series to the Marlins despite beating Alcantara. Their only series win was over the Reds at home and even that took a miracle comeback.
Panic meter: 3
They're already 4 1/2 games behind the Braves, who overall have a better roster and have dealt with injury concerns of their own. Figuring out how to replace Hoskins' production is a tall order, especially with Harper (and backup first baseman Darick Hall) out, but there's plenty of time to do it. It's also not difficult to envision a second-half run once Harper and Suárez are back -- along with possible help in front of the trade deadline -- and we've already seen this team win a pennant from a wild-card spot.
Be annoyed, but not worried.
Record: 5-7
Weird start. The Cardinals were a few well-placed bloopers by the Blue Jays on Opening Day away from a sweep of a playoff-caliber team to start the year. Then they lost five of their next six games. The offense is supposed to carry this team and it was dormant for four of those losses.
They have rebounded to win two straight, though those were funky games in Coors Field and were hardly reassuring.
Panic meter: 3
The main reason I picked the Cardinals to finish second (instead of first) in the NL Central and miss the playoffs heading into the season was the mess that is the starting rotation. Nothing has happened to change my tune on that front. Jack Flaherty's ERA is good through three starts, but he's walked 14 hitters in 15 1/3 innings and is barely averaging three innings per start (though it should be noted, he looked great in Coors on Wednesday). Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Jake Woodford have been terrible while Adam Wainwright is injured and over 40.
Still, it couldn't get much worse and they are just three games out. A four-game home series against the Pirates starting Thursday likely sets them on course.
Record: 6-7
This is exactly the same record the Astros had last season at this point. They won 106 regular-season games and never faced elimination in the postseason. Jose Altuve will be back soon enough while Michael Brantley and Lance McCullers are also on the injured list but due back.
Panic meter: 0
Record: 5-8
After they broke the longest MLB playoff drought, the Mariners entered the season with high expectations. They lost five of seven at home to start the season. They won two straight in Cleveland, but then lost three in a row, including blowing a 7-1 lead to the Cubs in Wrigley. A good win on Wednesday should help alleviate some of the stress and it should be nice to know the Astros are only one game better so far.
Panic meter: 4
Heading into this exercise, I knew I wasn't going to go any higher than five for any team and probably wouldn't even get all the way there. I do think the Mariners are the most concerning team on this list.
Luis Castillo is nails at the top of the rotation and Logan Gilbert is good. Robbie Ray was bad in his start and is hurt and behind that it's mediocre or worse. The offense can be awfully inconsistent and top-heavy, too.
I wonder if it'll matter that they failed to take advantage of a bad Astros start. It's unlikely, but that means we're just handing the Astros the division again. It's tough to win it all from a wild-card spot.
On the flip-side, this might be a tad excessive.
Few believed the Mariners would beat the Astros in the West this year and 5-8 isn't a terrible record, given that the Mariners were 29-39 at one point last year. Maybe they have another 14-game winning streak in them. Plus, Jarred Kelenic looks like he's legitimately breaking out. That would be a major plus in deepening the lineup.
Problem: The Rays are 12-0
Both the Yankees and the Blue Jays have designs on the AL East crown helping to launch them to an AL pennant and World Series title. They have both played well enough to be sitting at 8-4, which is a 108-win pace!
They are also both already four games out due to the streaking Rays. Still ...
Panic meter: 1
Both teams have 13 games head-to-head against the Rays remaining. The Rays have played the easiest schedule of the bunch here by a pretty wide margin. It seems ridiculous to already be four back while they are both playing so well, but it's a marathon of a season. Remember, the Braves ran down the Mets last year after trailing by 10 1/2 games on June 1 and that was with the Mets going 66-44 from that point forward.
Again, I'd probably be more annoyed than worried or even concerned.
Record: 3-9
They don't have the worst record in baseball, as the Tigers are 2-9. This is unacceptable. They are supposed to be the worst team. That's what ownership and the front office are trying to do.
Panic meter: 3
Let's not go nuts just yet. They are only on pace to go 41-121 and that would set all kinds of records in futility. They just need the Tigers to play a bit better. The effort from the players in the Guardians series and so far in the Baltimore series was surely not appreciated, though.
