So far in this MLB season, we've mostly just celebrated the best teams up here in the Official Power Rankings introduction area. Let's shift matters, at least for one week, and talk disappointment. In fact, we'll focus in on one team, as the disappointment has been so extreme.
There are disappointing teams, and then there's what has happened so far in the 2023 MLB season to the St. Louis Cardinals. In looking to examine any historic implications here, I wanted to avoid hyperbole but also actually dig in. The feeling I got was that most disappointing teams that were expected contenders are hovering around .500 or are simply just sub-par. The depths to which the Cardinals have sank this season, to this point, had me wondering if this was one of the worst teams in recent memory -- if not ever -- so long as we framed it as an expected contender.
Now, on the latter point, it's tough to nail down the subjectivity. Lots of people would disagree on what teams might be "expected contenders" in any given season, but I think we could all agree the 2023 Cardinals qualify. They were easily the NL Central favorites (though I'll point out I had the Brewers taking the division), overwhelmingly so in some places.
And they enter Monday with a pathetic 11-24 record. That's a .314 winning percentage which is a 162-game pace of 51-111. In terms of framing just how extreme this is, it would be the worst Cardinals record since 1903 (43-94) and would tie the 1898 St. Louis Browns for the franchise record in losses. The Cardinals haven't lost 100 games since 1908 and haven't even hit 90 losses since 1990.
Still, I'm gonna zero in on the worst starts in relatively recent seasons among contenders. With so many more playoff teams now, it's different than comparing to bad starts back in the '60s or '70s, for example. Plus, the teams that were expected to contend should be more fresh in our memory.
In the Wild Card Era (1995-present), 39 teams have been as bad as the Cardinals or worse through 35 games (list here). I did the legwork for you, though. Among those teams, I come up empty in looking to list the teams that were considered contenders before the season. The closest I found were the 2004 Royals, 2006 Marlins, 2016 Twins and last year's Reds. Each of those teams was coming off an 83-win season. Not one of the 39 teams previously on that list made the playoffs in the previous season. The Cardinals won 93 games and the NL Central last year and were the betting favorites to take the division again.
Through this lens, the 2023 Cardinals are the most disappointing team we've seen in Major League Baseball going back to at least the 1994 strike and maybe a decent bit further back than that.
Even worse news? That list of 39 teams? None of them came even close to the playoffs. None even had a winning record at the end of the season. The 2006 Marlins ended up the best of the bunch at 78-84. Sixteen of them finished with at least 100 losses.
It's getting late early in St. Louis. I'm also 99.999 percent sure this is easily the lowest I've ever ranked them.
Biggest Movers
Rk Teams Chg Rcrd 1The consternation about the weak schedule seems to have vanished. We're now left with the simple reality that they are just awesome.
2The Braves are on pace to win 111 games and already have a seven-game lead in the NL East.
3The Baltimore Orioles have never had a team with two players reaching 40 stolen bases in a season. Right now, Jorge Mateo is 12 for 13 and Cedric Mullins is 11 for 11. That puts both on pace for 50-plus.
4The Dodgers overall seem to have really found their footing. Since that 10-11 start, they've gone 11-3.
5Adolis García is the MLB leader in RBI with 36. Can I offer up a quick digression? When I say the pace of something, I'm not saying there's even a remote chance that it'll happen. I'm just putting context behind it. I always feel like saying a player is on a full-season pace for something gives a better perspective to how he's been playing than just a raw number. Anyway, García is on pace for 177 RBI. For those curious, the only Rangers players ever to go for 130 RBI are Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Teixeira, A-Rod and Josh Hamilton.
6That's one hell of a week. The Red Sox swept the Blue Jays in four games and then took two of three in Philly. Can they keep it up? There's a fun two-game series in Atlanta on deck.
7The Blue Jays still rank dead last in home games played this season. They are 9-3 at home and 12-11 on the road.
8Have you noticed the tear Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on? It's only the beginning. He's going to have a monster season.
9Rotation and Jose Altuve injuries have certainly had a hand in it, but we're probably deep enough into the season to say it's been a World Series hangover to this point, no? The good news is there's still plenty of time and we saw how quickly things can snap out of said hangover last season with the Braves, just to name one example. I should also point out that a few times earlier this season, I pointed to the Astros' record last season to say don't worry. While I still wouldn't be worried about this team, last year's Astros were 22-12 right now.
10The tumble is well underway. During this seven-game losing streak, the Pirates have been outscored 44-9.
11Before Sunday's win, the Brewers had lost nine of their previous 12. And yet, they are in second place and a half-game out of first.
12I mentioned Anthony Rendon's power last week and then on Sunday he finally hit his first homer since last May 17, 2022. He's now hitting .291/.418/.360 and, yes, the lagging slugging looks very weird there.
13The Twins are 9-10 outside the AL Central, but remain the only team above .500 from that terrible division overall. Hey, the worst division winner still wins the division, right?
14Lourdes Gurriel is on an extended heater. Sure, he went 8 for 11 with four homers, six RBI and nine runs in his last three games, but if you just lop off his first eight games this season, he's hitting .365 with a .659 slugging percentage.
15The Yankees are now in last place by more than two games and 10 out of first.
16And here they come? The Mariners have won six of their last seven. And how about rookie starting pitcher Bryce Miller? Quite a debut week.
17So much for the good vibes. The Phillies' win Sunday broke a six-game losing streak.
18You know how I mentioned in the intro that usually the most disappointing teams are hovering around .500? Meet the Mets, greet the Mets. Since running their record to 14-7, they lost two to the Giants and Nationals, were swept in Detroit and lost two of three at home to the Rockies. A series loss to the Braves is wedged in there, but the focus should be on them getting beat up by bad teams. That shouldn't happen.
19It was nice to get two of three from the Marlins at home, but before that the Cubs went 1-6 with four one-run losses on the road trip to Miami and D.C. Leaving runners on base in key spots is becoming a major problem, too.
20On April 11, 2021, the Giants acquired 25-year-old utility man Thairo Estrada from the Yankees for cash considerations. There are absolutely no fanfare, but credit Estrada for what he's become since. He's an emerging star who hits for average, hits for power and runs.
21This is the exact same record the Guardians had last season through 34 games.
22For those out there who lament the lack of batsmiths who just find holes -- such as Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs -- go watch Luis Arraez. He's still hitting well over .400 (.420) and hasn't gone more than six at-bats without a hit this season.
23A 5-1 week against the Mets and Cardinals? Not too shabby.
24The Rockies were 2-0 in March and are now 5-1 in May. Too bad April counted.
25Hunter Harvey recorded the save Sunday for the Nats. It was the first of his career, but his father (remember Bryan from the Angels and Marlins?) had 177 saves in his career. They are now the ninth father-son duo to each have an official MLB save.
26They've won five of seven since that season-altering losing streak. If they had just gone 5-5 instead of losing all 10 in that stretch, they'd be two games out in the AL Central. For shame.
27Nick Lodolo now has a 10.38 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in his last four starts. He leads the majors in hit batsman after leading last year and I'm feeling Duke Temple vibes (remember, he threw at his own kid in a father-son game).
28Removing Willson Contreras from catcher when he's been in the same division the previous seven seasons and we're barely over one month into a five-year deal seems like a red flag on how the front office operates. His bat isn't nearly as impactful when he's a DH. And if he's so bad defensively, why was he signed? He didn't just all of a sudden become a totally different player in a month.
29The Royals have won one series all season. That's it. Just one.
30So have the A's! That series win in Kansas City this past weekend was the A's first series win all season. It isn't enough just yet to climb out of the cellar, but I at least had to think about it for a second. They are threatening number 29!
