Let's talk about the Tampa Bay Rays season and both the good and bad possibilities of where this thing is headed. For a little bit, it seemed like the Rays were going to hold down the number one spot in the Official Power Rankings for the rest of the season. We don't need to rehash the 13-0 start, but the Rays had several other impressive stretches. They lost three of four after that historic winning streak to start the season, but followed it up with a stretch where they went 15-4, for example. A 15-4 stretch would be the best of the season for most teams, but it was already the Rays' second-best.
Through the early part of June, they ripped off eight wins in nine games, culminating with a series win over the Rangers. At the time, the Rangers were the second-best team in baseball.
The Rays were 48-20, which put them on pace to win 114 games. Since then, they've stumbled. Amid the stretch, they have lost series to the A's and Padres while splitting a four-game set with the Royals. Overall, the Rays are 13-22 in roughly the past six weeks.
Assuming the Rays avoid a historic collapse -- missing the playoffs included -- there are two paths forward.
Will the Rays rebound, make a deep playoff run and erase the memory of this terrible stretch? We've seen that happen plenty of times. Here are three examples:
The 2016 Cubs were 47-20 and then lost 15 of their next 20 games. They were able to right the ship and win 103 games and then the World Series. The 2017 Astros were 42-16 at one point and stayed strong into late July. From July 29-Aug. 12, they went 4-11. We could go with a bigger sample and note that they were 11-19 through Aug. 30. But they then went 22-8 the rest of the way and won it all. The 1990 Reds were 9-0 and 18-5 and 23-7 and then 33-12. At a similar point to the Rays, Astros and Cubs we've discussed, those Reds were 45-23. They were actually under .500 the rest of the way and "only" ended up winning 91 games after such an outstanding start to the season. Then they won the World Series.Or will the Rays go with the fade job and end up with the season ultimately closing in disappointment? We've seen that happen plenty of times. Here are three examples:
The 2022 Yankees were 52-18 and even kept playing well enough to sit 61-23. Starting with a walk-off loss to the Red Sox the next day, the Yankees went 38-40 the rest of the season and then were swept out of the ALCS by the Astros. For a team on pace to break the single-season wins record more than halfway through the year, what a disappointing finish. The 2003 Mariners were 48-22 and had a 7 1/2-game lead in their division. There was a bit of a downturn for a bit before the terrible stretch hit, when they lost 13 of 19 from Aug. 20-Sept. 9. They would end up missing the playoffs with 93 wins. I wouldn't call this a collapse by today's standards, as the Mariners would've been the second AL wild card in this current format. It was certainly a fade, though. They might not really fit here, but remember when the 2017 Dodgers lost 16 of 17? They were an absurd 91-36 before that string. They did rebound to make the World Series, but lost in seven games. It's probably not the best example, so we'll add another here... The 1976 Phillies were 50-20 through June and sat 83-42 in late August. They'd then lose 11 of 13. They righted the ship enough to finish with 101 wins, but they were swept out of the NLCS.Sometimes life ain't fair. We all know that. It's probably unfair the way some teams are judged against the context of how the seasons ended. The reality of the situation says the 2023 Rays will be remembered, mostly, not for their historic start to the season but instead how they played the rest of the way. If they win the World Series, the blip on the radar will fall by the wayside. We barely remember the bad stretches for those Cubs, Astros and Reds teams. Do any Reds fans sit around lamenting the sub-.500 record in the last 94 regular-season games?
If the Rays fail to win at least the AL pennant -- and maybe even the World Series -- however, they'll be a disappointment and will eventually just be a footnote. How often do non-Phillies fans ever think of that '76 Phils team? Do any Yankees fans look on last season, on the team-level, fondly?
We know the answers to these hypotheticals. The story of the 2023 Rays has yet to be written.
For now, the cushion they built themselves early is enough to keep them easily in the playoff mix and with ample opportunity to right the ship and make this a special season. They also set the bar high enough that there's enormous pressure to avoid becoming a footnote.
Biggest Movers
Rk Teams Chg Rcrd 1Have they won three of four or lost five of eight? Both! Spin it however you wish, but the Braves remain the best team in baseball.
2They really, really, really are going to need some veteran innings-eater pitchers in the last two months of the season, not to mention the playoffs. Just look at the workloads in the rotation compared to previous levels. They are almost all going to run out of gas. In the meantime, the O's have the best record in the AL. Who would've thought that possible when the Rays started 13-0? The time to go for it is now, not later.
3I love the oddities baseball provides sometimes. The Dodgers entered Sunday having won 10 of 12 and the offense was humming -- including 27 runs combined between Friday and Saturday. Then Max Muncy hit a grand slam in the first inning Sunday and it looked like another laugher. Instead, the Rangers outscored the Dodgers 8-0 the rest of the game.
4That Corey Seager injury is very concerning. A bad thumb ruins a player in all kinds of ways in baseball. Plus, Seager has played like an MVP while healthy this season, slashing .350/.413/.631 in his 66 games.
5Things don't get any easier just yet. The Rays don't play a sub-.500 team until Aug. 4.
6The champs are 6-3 since the break, even if it's an uninspiring 6-3 (and it has been, especially on the offensive side). Is it now statement time, though? The Astros get the Rangers and Rays at home this week.
7Since the Brewers' six-game losing streak in the middle of last month, they've gone 21-11. The only team better in that stretch in all of baseball has been the Braves.
8The Red Sox are 5-1 in series this month. Their one series loss? In Oakland. Yep. Baseball!
9The frustrating tease-job of a season continues. Just when it looked like the Jays were figuring things out, they lost four of five. Maybe the comeback win Sunday gets them going for a good spurt before another down cycle.
10Heading into this season, Bryce Harper had a career .523 slugging percentage and averaged 33 home runs for every 162 games he'd played. This season, he's slugging .404 and has just four homers in 66 games. Has he just not yet gotten his full power back from the surgery? If so, what is a power burst is right around the corner?
11That's a five-game winning streak after what looked like a season-altering losing streak. Now they get another shot at the Brewers, against whom the Reds are 2-8 this season.
12The sky is falling? Yeah, I'd say so. The D-Backs have lost 12 of their last 16 and are only a half-game in playoff position. They had a three-game lead in their division before this rut. Still, in the middle of all that, they won a series against the Braves. Baseball!
13It was during the All-Star break when I did all that research about the best last-place teams and worst division winners. We had the discussion here last week, but the Twins are intent on ruining it, apparently. They've now gone 8-2 since the break and they are five games over .500. For those wondering about pace, the Twins are on pace to go 85-77. That means they aren't totally out of the woods here (I mentioned some 85-win teams), but they're trending upward.
14The Nationals haven't swept a series of three games or more since June of 2021. Wait, let's update that. Until they swept the Giants this weekend, the Nats hadn't done so in over two years. And the Giants have now lost five in a row after a seven-game winning streak. This doesn't make things easy on power rankers, but fortunately I'm the most mentally tough one out there.
15Four games out of a playoff spot means they absolutely, positively cannot trade the best player in baseball. He might sign elsewhere after this season. Empty the farm and go for it!!! YOLO!!!
16Squeaking by the Royals for three games at home doesn't really do much to impress me.
17A decent number of things have gone wrong this season, but we can't look away from Kolten Wong. He's arguably been the worst position player in all of baseball this season. He's now hitting .157 with a .448 OPS. He *slugged* .430 last year and he's not even a power hitter.
18Strong week against Pennsylvania and what better time to stay hot than a week with seven games against the Royals and White Sox?
19Luis Arraez went 3 for 4 on Sunday and it only raised his average from .375 to .379. It's hard to see him making a serious run at .400, but we can still enjoy the hell out of him. That's about all to enjoy right now with this bunch.
20Go back and read my intro regarding the cushion the Rays have built themselves, which allows for some disappointment. The Padres are in the opposite boat. Just taking two of three from the Tigers right now just isn't good enough. They needed the sweep.
21Some of the players (namely Marcus Stroman) have been vocal about wanting to keep this group together. Winners of five of their last six games, the Cubs now have two games against the White Sox and four more against the Cardinals this coming week. A big week here and Jed Hoyer can't justify selling, right?
22Let's say the Mets win their two games against the Yankees and then either sweep or take three of four from the Nationals leading up to the trade deadline. That would give them excuse enough to not carve this thing up, right? Knowing this group, they'll probably just lose five of six and leave no doubt.
23Too bad the schedule is more balanced. The Tigers are 18-12 against the AL Central and 3-16 against the AL East.
24The six-game winning streak through Thursday provided a glimmer of hope, but the three straight losses to the hated Cubs over the weekend closed everything down. Prepare for trades.
25Lane Thomas stole four bases Sunday. That was only the 12th time in franchise history a player has pulled off the feat, joining Michael Taylor, Trea Turner (twice), Marquis Grissom, Rodney Scott, Ron LeFlore and Tim Raines (five times).
26Since the All-Star break, the Rockies have won a series over the Yankees, split with the Astros and won a series over the Marlins. It's a nice run and I can really only come to one conclusion here: The Rockies were motivated during the break when I noted that there was a chance they'd set the franchise record for losses in a season. It's just the power I have sometimes. And thanks for reading, Rockies clubhouse!
27Two seasons. Just two seasons is all it took. The White Sox have 60 losses and in 2021 they didn't lose their 60th game until Sept. 9.
28Since June 5, the Pirates have gone 11-29. There was, somehow, in a miraculous twist, a four-game winning streak in there, too.
29They went 3-4 against two contenders this past week, so we'll give the A's a bump. In fact, with the records being this close, maybe it'll be a "fun" competition for the 29th spot the rest of the way!
30Jordan Lyles is now 1-12 and it doesn't seem like there's danger of him losing his rotation spot any time soon. This means we can probably start eyeing some of the worst pitcher records ever, such as Mike Parrott's 1-16 (1980), Anthony Young's 1-16 (1993), Jose DeLeon's 2-19 (1985), Jim Abbott's 2-18 (1996) and Matt Keough's 2-17 (1979).
