Remember when the Rays were the easy and obvious No. 1 every single week here for a bit? The Braves hit the All-Star break with a FOUR-game lead over the Rays for the best record in baseball. A 27-5 run to close the first half will do that.
2The Orioles are two games out, but they are tied in the loss column. I'll give them the nod here for a few reasons. First, they are better in the last month and have added some new, young talent. Meanwhile, the Rays pitcher injuries are really starting to hinder them. If we wanted to look head-to-head, the Orioles win that battle three games to two. And, finally, my last-resort tiebreaker is who I'd predict to win a seven-game series right now. I'd take the Orioles.
3They lost seven of eight before the break and surely felt like they needed the rest. The Orioles are right on their ass, too. The good news for the Rays is they should have a soft landing here for the second half, starting with a three-game series in Kansas City.
4Other than when they lose to the Braves (which is no crime; everyone does), they just keep winning. And for the "unsustainable" people, who have arrived at that conclusion by looking at run differential and nothing deeper, the Marlins have a plus-52 run differential in their last 43 games. The season-long total is skewed by roughly four losses early in the season. Are we really going to act like four games from the start of the season through May 3 can predict the rest of the season? Look deeper. Be better.
5Mookie Betts hit .365/.471/1.039 with eight doubles, nine homers, 19 RBI and 18 runs in his last 15 games before the break. Ignore the Home Run Derby performance. He's on a heater when it matters.
6Tough first-half finish for the Rangers, as they went 5-11 after June 23. They are fortunate they bought themselves so much cushion after an excellent start. A big homestand is on tap here to start the second half against three playoff-caliber teams (Guardians, Rays and Dodgers).
7Let's hope Corbin Carroll's shoulder holds it together.
8Can a team in the second wild-card spot be a sleeping giant? Because they really feel like a sleeping giant.
9Kyle Schwarber is hitting .184 with 22 bombs. The only players to ever top 30 homers with a sub-.200 batting average are Joey Gallo (.199, 38 HR, 2021), Eugenio Suarez (.198, 31 HR, 2021) and Mark Reynolds (.198, 32 HR, 2010).
10James Paxton and Brayan Bello are a very nice 1-2 punch in the rotation right now, just like everyone drew it up.
11Are you ready to argue that a Home Run Derby fixed a player? Because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to have a monster second half. Look, if you're gonna blame the Derby anytime a player has a slump afterward, it's gotta go both ways.
12The Brewers won 11 of their last 17 games before the break, including taking the Reds down in two of three. They'll get the Reds again to start the second half, too.
13The Reds lead the majors with 112 stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz has 16 in only 30 games.
14For me, the offensive issues are due to age (read: Old), personnel and Aaron Judge's injury, but it'll be fun to see if Sean Casey makes a difference now as hitting coach.
15The Giants lost seven of their last 11 heading to the break, but let's be honest: Sitting eight games over .500 right now is a net positive.
16Well lookie what we have here! The Mariners are 7-2 with a plus-25 run differential in July and all three opponents are currently in playoff position. Can they keep it going?
17The Guardians were 5 1/2 games back of the Twins on June 2. As they chipped and chipped away in the ensuing weeks, I just kept thinking one thing: We've seen this movie before.
18Before this season, the lowest first-half OPS of Carlos Correa's career was .803. This season it was .700.
19They were fully on course to be strong buyers ahead of the trade deadline and, perhaps most importantly, would've been able to avoid the Shohei Ohtani trade talk. And then they lost nine of their last 10 and Mike Trout got hurt.
20Is it too late? Everything about this team screams that it should be much better. Winning five of six heading into the break provides some hope. They need to get much hotter than that, though.
21Cody Bellinger's last 15 games before the break: .436/.467/.600. Since the Cubs are likely sellers, again, expect to see his name a lot the next two weeks.
22That six-game winning streak crawled the Mets back to within a gasp of the playoff picture, but losing those last two really hurt. It's still possible, but they've gotta get really hot really quickly.
23Paul Skenes certainly seems worth the excitement, so there's that.
24I took under 89 wins for this group heading into the season and it seems that it won't take much longer until I win. I am obviously the smartest man alive.
25There's been a lot of bad news with the big-league roster here in the last few years, but let's not gloss over Riley Greene. The fifth overall pick out of high school in 2019 is hitting .305 with a 133 OPS+ at age 22.
26Through his first 80 games this season, Joey Meneses had two home runs. In his last three games before the All-Star break, he hit four.
27Luis Robert is having an MVP-type season and is young enough to be the franchise centerpiece through the upcoming rebuild. I'd trade just about anyone else off the MLB roster who would bring value back.
28They are on pace to go 61-101. The franchise record for losses in a season is 98.
29They are on pace to go 46-116. The franchise record for losses in a season is 106.
30They are on pace to go 44-118. There has never been a season in which two teams lost at least 111 games (two 110-loss teams happened twice, most recently in 2021).
