We're just over two weeks from August and while a lot can happen after the calendar turns, it seems certain that this season is going to bring us an extreme on both sides when it comes to divisional races. The Yankees and Red Sox are currently for last place in the AL East at 50-44. They are on pace to win 86 games and tie for last place! That would be something.
You know what else would be something? If a division winner finished below .500.
The Twins are in first place in the AL Central, two games over .500 at 48-46, but they are hardly inspiring. They haven't been more than two games over .500 since June 1 when they were 30-27.
It is no longer a small sample, either. We've seen an awful lot of baseball from these teams in the AL Central and AL East and this is what these divisions are. The AL East is a lion while the Central is a lamb. We're likely going to see one of the worst division winners ever along with one of the best last-place teams ever.
Let's take a look.
The worst division winner
The 2007 Cubs and 2017 Twins were both division winners who finished 85-77. Many might've forgotten since they have switched leagues since, but once upon a time the Astros were in the NL Central. They won it with 84 wins in 1997. The 2008 Dodgers also won their division with 84 wins. The 2006 Cardinals were 83-78 and went on to win the World Series, surely providing hope for the AL Central contenders this year.
But.
The worst division winner ever by record was the 2005 Padres. They won the NL West with an 82-80 record.
Will the Twins (or Guardians, maybe?) eclipse this or make dubious history?
The best last-place team
The Red Sox have at least been in this discussion before. The 2015 Red Sox were 78-84 and finished in fifth place in the AL East. Their Pythagorean W-L record was 81-81, so they were more mediocre than how a "last-place team" normally looks.
They were actually one of the best last-place teams in MLB history. No team has ever had a winning record and finished in last. Keep in mind there used to be no divisions and only standings by league. The divisions started in 1969 and they were six or seven teams through 1993. As such, the chances of finishing in last place with a mediocre record were pretty bad up until the strike season in 1994.
Still, the 1991 Angels were 81-81 and somehow finished seventh (last) in the AL West. Given the competition, that's a pretty stellar team as far as last-place teams go.
The other team that hit .500 and still finished in last place was the 2005 Nationals. It was their first season after changing from the Montreal Expos and they came in fifth of five NL East teams despite only being nine games out of first when the season ended. Yes, the Braves won that division with 90 wins and the Nats finished last with 81.
Maybe this year's AL East will be bunched up in similar fashion with the Yankees and Red Sox battling for fourth place while remaining decently over .500.
It is just one of the many things to watch as we approach the dog days of August.
Biggest Movers
Rk Teams Chg Rcrd 1Uh oh. The Braves were absolutely, *stupid* hot going into the All-Star break, but they came back and lost a series to one of the worst teams in baseball. The break was a momentum killer!
2Quite a week coming up for the re-hot Orioles and their eight-game winning streak: They host the Dodgers for three games before playing a four-game set in Tampa Bay.
3They got two of three from the Royals, but we'll see if the Rays are truly back in the next few weeks. They don't play a sub-.500 team again until Aug. 4.
4Sometimes it goes exactly how you drew it up: Remember heading into this season all the talk about how Corey Seager was the player whose stats were most hurt by the shift? He's hitting .355 right now. Yes, every single hit that has made up the gap from his .245 average last season has happened due to the shift limits. I'm totally serious.
5The biggest question coming out of the break was the rotation and they got three good starts in New York. But was that a byproduct of the Mets just being really bad? Hmmm ...
6A ridiculous comeback win Sunday night before a week with two games against the Rockies and four against the A's? Buy Astros stock.
7Baseball's best team in July has been the Red Sox.
8The Jays were swept by the Red Sox in a series that ended on July 2. They've only lost once since then and that was the no-hitter. It's a quiet run.
9The Bryce Harper home runs are coming. I know he hit one Saturday. I mean more are coming. A lot of them.
10Corbin Burnes is dealing, Christian Yelich looks a bit like his old self and Brandon Woodruff is coming back soon. It might be time to buy Brewers stock.
11The Giants were struggling. Then they won their last two before the break and swept the Pirates right after. Was it just weak competition or are they back on track?
12Rough sweep at the hands of the Orioles coming out of the break, but it was a rough draw. The schedule really lightens up now for a little bit, specifically with the Cardinals and Rockies coming this week.
13Uh oh. They've now lost eight of 10.
14The Yankees are 30-19 when Aaron Judge plays. They are 20-25 when he doesn't.
15The Reds had a big opportunity wrapped around the All-Star break with six straight games against the Brewers. They lost five of those games and are 2-8 against the Brewers this season. This is the type of thing that can linger with a young team, too.
16What a huge swing in three days for the Twins and, yes, even if you never want to see it happen this way, the Bieber injury (see Guardians comment) is included in the recent list of Twins' fortunes.
17Getting really hot before hosting the All-Star Game and then getting to play the Tigers right after the break looked like an ideal scenario. Then the 2023 Mariners showed up.
18Just absolutely brutal timing on the Shane Bieber injury for both Bieber and the team.
19Saturday night felt like it might've been a season-saver. In true Angels' fashion, they followed that up with a game that sure felt like a season-ender.
20During the All-Star break, I did a few video segments where I was asked about a bold prediction and I stuck with the Padres as a playoff team. When they got homers from Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in the first game back, it appeared that my message has been received. Then they collapsed and lost three straight. No one should be surprised. Put a fork in 'em.
21At some point, the "underlying numbers" become meaningless. This just isn't a good team. They keep trying to tell us that with their record -- save for the occasional blowout in order to skew that run differential! -- and too many people are refusing to listen.
22That Brett Baty play Saturday night pretty well summed up the Mets' season, didn't it?
23I'm with everyone else in expecting the Tigers to be sellers before the trade deadline. But they are six out in a brutally bad division and have you seen their schedule the next few weeks? After four against the Royals, they have three against the sad-sack Padres. A makeup game at home against the Giants is wedged in there (a rough travel schedule for the Giants there, too) before three against the Angels at home. The Tigers really could hang around even with this severely flawed roster.
24Can we get that Paul Goldschmidt trade talk going again? I need a break from the constant Shohei Ohtani rumors.
25Imagine the disappointment for the people who love to blame the Home Run Derby for everything when Luis Robert went 4 for 5 with a home run on Sunday.
26Henry Davis has only caught two innings this season at the big-league level. General manager Ben Cherington said they expect him to get some catching experience this year, but he'll leave it up to his manager. Earth to Derek Shelton!
27Twenty-two-year-old C.J. Abrams has batted leadoff the past six games. He's 12 for 25 (.480) with a double, a triple, a homer and eight runs scored. Hmmm...
28The Rockies are 4-2 against the vaunted AL East this season. Really makes you think, right?
29How about a Bobby Witt Jr. hot streak? In his last 13 games, he's 19 for 51 (.373) with four doubles, two triples and four homers.
30Hey, at least they called up two of their top three prospects to give the fans a little something. Of course, those are the same fans they are actively screwing over.
