The Major League Baseball trade deadline is just over a month away. Between the three wild cards in both leagues, the bad Central divisions in each and the landscape of the standings in general, it's pretty tough to know exactly what teams would be heavy sellers just yet.
Still, the Mets are 36-43 and a long way from a playoff spot (they were 8 1/2 games out of the last wild card entering play on Tuesday). With all the big contracts and big names there, we're bound to see plenty of speculation as to a possible sell-off. One of the bigger names there is three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. He has a no-trade clause on his deal, but MLB.com's Anthony DiComo suggests that it's possible that won't be a problem:
Regarding Scherzer's no-trade clause, he's 38 and looking to win another title. Several industry sources have suggested he would waive it for the right situation.
DiComo later clarified that Scherzer's top priority is winning with the Mets, but that if things continue to go badly for the Mets, the waiving of the no-trade clause might be possible.
Regardless, we're just going to examine the situation.
Scherzer turns 39 years old a month from Tuesday. We've seen plenty of his elite-level ace upside, including in his 23 starts last season, when he pitched to a 2.29 ERA with 173 strikeouts in 145 1/3 innings.
This year, however, he has a 3.95 ERA (104 ERA+, 4.13 FIP) along with his lowest strikeout rate since 2011.
Knowing that Father Time is undefeated, that line is worrisome. We also have to consider that Scherzer has 2,752 2/3 regular-season innings along with 133 1/3 playoff innings of wear and tear on that blessed right arm. He's had injuries to his back, neck, side, oblique, triceps and more in the last four years, too.
Further, the salary would be a factor for any acquiring team. Scherzer is making $43.33 million this season with a $43.33 million player option for 2024. How much would the Mets pay to rid themselves of Scherzer? How much money would an acquiring team would be willing to take on? Past that, how much would any acquiring team give up in prospects?
All of the above points lead me to believe that Scherzer isn't going anywhere before the trade deadline.
Still, this is something worth monitoring. If the Mets have an awful July, Scherzer throws the ball really well and the starting pitching trade market doesn't really materialize, it's possible we'd see a team (Diamondbacks? Rangers? Astros? Padres???) get wild enough to pull the trigger.
