Here’s a fun fact: The 3.5 point spread in Game 3 of the NBA Finals will be the most points the Golden State Warriors have gotten as underdogs in the playoffs since 2014.
Here’s another: Golden State has won at least one road game in their last 26 playoff series.
There’s nothing from the first two games that’s making me reconsider picking the Boston Celtics to win the chip, and a loss here probably wouldn’t change that.
Because I made that pick with the assumption that Golden State would win one of these two games in Boston. Now it’s a matter of figuring out which one it’ll be.
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Overall record against the spread: 32-27-1
Golden State Warriors (+3.5, +135) at Boston Celtics (-3.5, -155) – 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m.
Let’s talk regression to the mean.
In Game 1, Marcus Smart, Al Horford and Derrick White combined for 65 points on 17-23 shooting from beyond the arc. In Game 2, they combined for 16 points on just six made field goals.
Is that regression? Kind of.
Boston’s tertiary scorers couldn’t buy a bucket, but a portion of that was because the Warriors adjusted. Jayson Tatum found himself in more one-on-one situations, and his outlet options were limited by a Golden State defence that was closing out on shooters with renewed vigour.
I suspect Boston’s true shooting mean is somewhere in between what they did in the first two games of the Finals. Probability doesn’t work like this in small sample sizes, but I expect a bit of a bounce back for the Celtics shooters.
And I expect a different whistle at home for Boston. You can bet your last dollar the Celtics’ brass was petitioning the league behind the scenes about the refereeing in Game 2.
A lot of things broke for Golden State in Game 2. Like Jaylen Brown’s early game rhythm getting all but obliterated by a pair of soft whistles in the first quarter. Some of those little breaks will surely go Boston’s way in Game 3, and that plus the home crowd plus a likely upswing in shooting? I’ve got Boston (-3.5).
I’m not switching my series pick, but I am switching one of the player props we’ve been tracking. Jordan Poole has been far too mercurial for my betting blood, so we’re ditching his threes made prop.
Instead, we're replacing it with Canada’s favourite son. Andrew Wiggins has seen a lot of open looks, and he’s going to keep getting big minutes. I like Wiggins OVER 1.5 threes made.
Since it seems like this series might just swing on who is hot from deep most often, let’s theme the player props today. Give me Grant Williams OVER 0.5 threes made and Otto Porter Jr. OVER 0.5 threes made.
Steph Curry OVER 1.5 steals and blocks is pretty enticing, given how shaky all of Boston’s primary ball handlers are and Steph’s underrated (I’d call them elite) hands.
You know what? I want to get a little wild with tonight’s Sicko Same Game Parlay. I like all my standard player props above, so I’m going to take the Celtics ATS pick out of it, parlay all that with Marcus Smart’s OVER (13.5) and Derrick White’s OVER (11.5) under the “role players play better at home” axiom, and I’m going to throw in the game UNDER (212.5). I don’t get real sick with it enough for someone who named his SGP like this.
So let’s change that.
Tonight’s Sicko Same Game Parlay pays off at +11000
· UNDER 212.5
· Otter Porter Jr. OVER 0.5 threes made
· Grant Williams OVER 0.5 threes made
· Andrew Wiggins OVER 1.5 threes made
· Stephen Curry OVER 1.5 steals and blocks combined
· Marcus Smart OVER 13.5 points
· Derrick White OVER 11.5 points
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
