There’s a distinct possibility we’ve seen Russell Westbrook’s last meaningful action in the NBA. Five years ago, the triple-double machine was in MVP conversations, leading the NBA in assists, and stars were demanding trades from their teams to play with him. But without an attitude adjustment and a willingness to accept that on the 2022-23 L.A. Lakers he needs to be a role player, he seems lost.
It’s pretty clear the Lakers want to ship him out. But what’s the trade market for a 33-year-old ball-dominant point guard who neither plays defence nor shoots the ball well? And what teams could put together enough salary to match his?
The overlap between the answers to those questions is tiny. And with the Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving/Brooklyn Nets saga seemingly winding down, the question of what happens to Russell Westbrook is one of the few remaining dominos left to fall this offseason.
And maybe it won’t fall. But let’s take a look at how Russ’s move (or lack of) could impact the NBA betting markets.
Will He Go?
Right now, the books that offer this kind of action have Westbrook favoured to stay with the Lakers (+200). As I said a few months ago when writing about Durant, it’s far easier to reconcile with troubled stars than it is to trade them without getting finessed. So while I agree with the market’s assessment, it doesn’t stop there for me. With the acquisition of Patrick Beverley and Westbrook’s well-known distaste for the pesky guard, it feels likely that Russ himself will want out. What happens to the Lakers’ season win total if he’s dealt?
The line wasn’t posted when I did my Way-Too-Early NBA Futures Picks, but PointsBet Canada has the Lakers’ total at 45.5. With or without Westbrook, that feels high. L.A. is one of the NBA’s most consistent public teams when it comes to betting, so let’s adjust that down a little bit and account for the fact that the books know the team’s fanbase will be drawn to overs and say their win expectancy is around 42.5.
Moving Russ out of the lead guard role and allowing Pat Bev to set the tone makes for a better team here. So Westbrook being dealt would make that over 45.5 more likely to hit. I’d still stay away from the Lakers and overs this year, though.
Where will he go?
There’s a group of teams with +400 odds to acquire Russ, according to Oddscheck. So let’s run through them. With a season win total at o/u 31.5 on PointsBet Canada, the Jazz are probably the most difficult team in the league to handicap at this point. Donovan Mitchell is apparently still on his way out, and Westbrook could be on the horizon. Yet there’s been no serious movement on either front. We’re firmly in stay away territory here.
But if the Jazz do acquire Westbrook without having to give up Mitchell, it leads to an interesting question. Does he make them worse? Or does his sheer tenacity and competitive drive make them more likely to top that 31.5 win total? I think it makes the over a lock.
A lot of the negative things said about Westbrook this offseason are true, but he cares, and he tries. Really hard. Maybe that’s what Mitchell needs after a postseason in which he resembled all the worst things we say about James Harden.
He was an absolute turnstile.
Oddly enough, if Russ is in and Mitchell is gone, I think that too makes for a strong over pick for Utah. They were never serious contenders, but Westbrook’s post-KD Oklahoma City teams always won 40-plus games. Utah’s supporting cast is markedly worse, but I still think he is worth three to five extra wins per season on his own. If Utah deals Mitchell, it’s a sign they’re entering a full rebuild, and a team like that has no need for an extra wins.
There’s only one place it makes sense for him to go (and even then, it doesn’t make that much sense). I think he’d make the Knicks (+400) significantly worse by taking the ball away from more efficient scorers (Jalen Brunson) or young players who still need developmental reps (R.J. Barrett). The fallout from KD’s sojourn to Golden State was so petty I can’t imagine either one of them agreeing to Russ joining the Nets (+400).
And that leaves the Indiana Pacers (+400) as the team that makes the most sense as Russell Westbrook’s next destination. But that only makes sense if the Pacers have a few pieces the Lakers would want - Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, specifically. For Indiana, the move makes no sense unless L.A. sends a few draft picks their way to sweeten the pot, something Lakers GM Rob Pelinka seems loathe to do.
The Pacers are high on Tyrese Haliburton, likely the only player on their roster off-limits in a trade. Why would they trade for a player who plays the same position, who needs the ball in his hands all the time, who has burned bridges with teammates everywhere he’s gone since leaving the Thunder? Especially one who will win a few games on his own, moving you down in the 2023 draft?
With no trade partner that makes sense for the Lakers to send him to, and how stubborn he’s been in refusing to adapt to his own physical decline, the most likely outcome here is a buy-out, one way or another. And that’s why I started this whole thing with…
There’s a distinct possibility we’ve seen Russell Westbrook’s last meaningful action in the NBA.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
