I’ve seen a stat kicking around various betting communities lately: NBA teams down 2-0 hosting Game 3 are 34-12-1 against the spread, historically. So, keep that in mind as I tell you why teams in that scenario are going 0-2 tonight.
Kyle Lowry has been upgraded to questionable and will travel to his hometown for Game 3. Joel Embiid is still listed as out and was recently upgraded to “able to use a cellphone again” after his broken orbital bone had effected his vision so much it stopped him from looking at a backlit phone screen.
The two key injuries in the Eastern Conference semi-final between Miami and Philadelphia are not the same. And the stakes surrounding each injury couldn’t be more different. As Philly prepares to host the Heat in a must-win game, it almost feels like Joel Embiid NEEDS to play Friday night, or this series is over.
In the West, Phoenix’s Game 2 performance, specifically the last 18 minutes of the game, should serve as a reminder for the rest of the remaining teams in the league: The Suns had a historically great regular season because this is a historically great team.
We’re going to keep it patient and boring in tonight’s picks.
Overall record against the spread: 16-15
Miami Heat (-3, -150) at Philadelphia 76ers (+3, +130) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
There are just too many holes in this Philadelphia team when Joel Embiid is out and unable to Flex Tape them up like Billy Mays with a drop-step. If the Sixers play Deandre Jordan, the Heat will hunt him in pick and rolls. If the Sixers play Georges Niang, the Heat will hunt him. If they play “BBall” Paul Reed, the Heat will hunt him. And if they go small with Tobias Harris at centre, the Heat will parade to the rim like it’s Carnival on South Beach.
Assuming Embiid is out for this one, the biggest problem for Philly is that Tyrese Maxey was great in Game 2, and they still lost handily. This line moved when Kyle Lowry was upgraded to questionable, and it will probably move if he ends up playing. But I don’t think the Heat need Toronto’s favourite adopted son to win this. I mean, there were possessions in Game 2 where James Harden, perhaps the NBA’s most famously lazy defender, was guarding Jimmy Butler. ON PURPOSE. That’s how you know Philly is down bad.
I’ve got Miami (-3), but I’m not feeling great about it. The 76ers will likely come out with big energy in front of the home crowd with their season on the line. I also like Danny Green OVER 7.5 points. He’s been getting some really clean looks through two games but hasn’t been able to get the shots to fall.
Phoenix Suns (-1, -110) at Dallas Mavericks (+1, -110) – 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT
My assumption that Chris Paul would make it his mission to destroy Jalen Brunson in this series seems to have been correct. Paul has taken the Mav’s rising star out of the series thus far, forcing Luka Doncic to go it alone on offence. On the other end, Paul and Devin Booker have relentlessly hunted Doncic, putting him in tough defensive positions repeatedly.
The real story about the Suns should be what it’s been all season. They are almost impossibly good in the fourth quarter. Phoenix is 52-0 this season (including the playoffs) when leading going into the final frame. They posted a staggering 98 per cent true shooting as a team in the fourth on Thursday. And Chris Paul is averaging 10.3 points per fourth quarter during the playoffs, nearly half his per game total.
This line is tight, so I think I’ll go with the team who turns into the Monstars when the game is on the line. Give me the Suns (-1) and I’m going to keep taking Mikal Bridges OVER 1.5 steals and blocks combined until they move that number. Bridges has eclipsed that in seven of his last eight games after doing it again on Thursday.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +800
· Miami Heat Money Line
· Danny Green OVER 7.5 points
· Jimmy Butler OVER 22.5 points
· James Harden UNDER 38.5 points, assists and rebounds combined.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
