I just can’t with this series.
Just when the hoops world thought we had Boston and Miami figured out. When the Zach Lowes of the world were starting to watch Celtics and Warriors game tape to prepare for a Finals matchup that felt inevitable. When it looked like Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler might never be themselves again this year.
Jimmy Butler went Super-Saiyan and took another game almost single-handedly.
Now that’s how you back into a betting win. I had Miami +8.5 going into Game 6, only because I thought the game would be close. Boston was my pick to win. It’s always beautiful when a game goes in another direction that you forecasted, and you still get the ATS dub.
Overall record against the spread: 30-26-1
Boston Celtics (-2.5, -145) at Miami Heat (+2.5, +125) – 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet
At this point, I frankly have no idea how this game is going to go. I can see an almost infinite number of outcomes. But I picked Boston to win the series, and I advocated taking a futures bet on them to win the title when their odds were +460 going into Game 4 against Brooklyn in the first round.
So I’m sticking with my earlier picks. I’ll take the Celtics (-2.5) to cover. It’s a tight line, and the road team is 4-2 thus far.
I feel far more confident when it comes to the combined over/under, where the line is set at 195.5. Let’s kick some numbers. In this series, Miami and Boston have gone over that number four times in six games. They went over that number in two of three regular season match ups. Going back three seasons, including this series Boston and Miami have averaged 212 combined points per game.
I love the OVER (195.5).
With the books finally adjusting P.J. Tucker's over/under threes made to 1.5, we need to find another favourite player prop. Obviously, I’m sticking with Marcus Smart OVER 1.5 steals and blocks combined. The Defensive Player of the Year has averaged 1.6 steals per game over his career, so the books are giving you his blocks for free. I believe Smart is a big game player, and I’m only asking for an average game defensively to win that bet.
There’s going to be a temptation to grab the over on both Jimmy Butler (o/u 24.5) and Jayson Tatum (o/u 28.5). I don’t want any part of that. Both the Heat and Celtics are so good at taking away their opponent’s favourite thing when they’re locked in. In fact, I’m more inclined to take Tatum’s under than anything.
What I like the most is Al Horford. This has been arguably the best stretch of basketball Horford has played since the 2007 NCAA Tournament. And with Robert “Time Lord” Williams questionable, I think Big Al is in line for a productive game whether his frontcourt mate plays or not. I like Horford OVER 22.5 points, assists, and rebounds combined.
I think my Same Game Parlay for today is more likely to hit than the +1100 odds we’re getting, but if you feel squeamish about the Smart or Horford player props, just grab Boston (-2.5) and OVER 195.5. That pays out at +264.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay of The Night pays off at +1100.
• Boston Celtics -2.5
• OVER 195.5 game score
• Marcus Smart OVER 1.5 steals and blocks
• Al Horford OVER 22.5 points, assists, and rebounds.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
