It’s perfect timing and immaculate vibes for the Miami Heat. On Sunday, Tyler Herro torched Philadelphia to the tune of 25 points and 7 assists on 53/66/100 shooting splits off the bench. On Monday, he was awarded the NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award. It’s back-to-back reminders of why this low key Heat squad is so scary.
It’s terrible timing for the Sixers. If ever there was a series in which you need your All-World centre on the floor, it’s when you’re playing a team with their own All-World centre. Without Joel Embiid to bother him, Bam Adebayo was transcendent. Doc Rivers has some serious adjustments to make after pushing all the wrong buttons in Game 1 (DeAndre Jordan?!?! What year is it, 2016?). But Miami didn’t even play that well, so it’s going to take more than a tactical shift in Game 2.
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks were confronted with a troubling reality in their Game 1 loss to Phoenix: The Suns are really good at punishing small ball. Deandre Ayton went off, and without a true centre on the floor much of the time for Dallas, the fact that Ayton has Chris Paul, a historically great improver-of-big-men, feeding him just exponentially magnifies that problem.
Tonight’s picks might be boring, but patient and boring is how you make money.
Overall record against the spread: 14-15
Philadelphia 76ers (+8, +325) at Miami Heat (-8, -425) – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
Miami is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 as the favourite. They’ve beaten the spread by an average of 7.4 points per game in the playoffs. And never mind all the numbers, they’re just the better team, probably even with Joel Embiid on the court for Philly.
Miami has been elite against the spread all year (50-37-1), which I’ve always suspected comes down to the books and the betting public underrating just how good this defence is.
The Heat won Game 1 despite ice cold shooting from everyone not named Herro or Adebayo, and a down night from Jimmy Butler. Butler will be better. Either Max Strus or Gabe Vincent will be able to hit shots. And the Heat have four credible defenders to matchup with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, plus an elite rim protector backing them up.
With no Embiid, I don’t think Philadelphia can win more than one game in this series. I’m riding the Heat (-8). And I like Bam to continue dominating down low, so I’m taking Bam Adebayo OVER 10.5 rebounds.
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Dallas Mavericks (+6, +210) at Phoenix Suns (-6, -250) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
When Dwight Powell isn’t on the floor for Dallas, Deandre Ayton is a huge problem. When Powell is on the floor… Dallas was -10 in Game 1. I said it in my series preview, I said it when I picked the Suns to win on Sunday. Phoenix is the worst possible match up for Dallas in the West.
The Mavericks lost despite shooting 41 per cent from deep, winning the turnover battle, and forcing Devin Booker into an inefficient scoring night. Despite 45/12/8 from Luka Doncic, it feels more likely the gap between the Mavs and Suns widens than shrinks in Game 2. Phoenix is such a well-organized team on both ends, so good at finding weaknesses over the course of the game, and the Mavs have plenty of exploitable flaws.
This series ending in a sweep wouldn’t blow me away, that’s how bad this matchup is for Dallas. Phoenix (-6) is the pick. I’m also taking Mikal Bridges OVER 1.5 combined blocks and steals, a number the Defensive Player of the Year finalist has eclipsed in eight of his last nine playoff games.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Wednesday Night pays off at +425
• Miami Heat -6.5 alternative point spread
• Jimmy Butler 20 or more points
• Bam Adebayo 10 or more rebounds
• Tyler Herro 15 or more points.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
