I overthought everything in Friday’s picks. The home team down 0-2 in a series is generally successful, and when you’re dealing with the top eight teams in the league, you should trust that. I got too cute with it, and Philadelphia and Dallas made me pay. At least I hit both player props. Shout out to Mikal Bridges and Danny Green.
Boston-Milwaukee has the makings of a classic see-saw series. These teams are so tough, so defensively savvy and so evenly matched, I just think we’re going back and forth for seven games. Meanwhile, in “I Told You So” news, the Memphis Grizzlies continue to prove they’re a terrible matchup for the Golden State Warriors, but the books continue to overvalue the Dubs.
The theme of Saturday night’s picks: Trusting my gut. Let’s get right to it:
Overall record against the spread: 16-17
Boston Celtics (+2, 105) at Milwaukee Bucks (-2, -125) – 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT
After Milwaukee threw a haymaker in Game 1, Boston adjusted and answered, big-time. The Celtics got efficient performances from Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown, with a bonus bench pop-off from Grant Williams (21 points on 50/66/50 shooting). And they continued to limit Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo’s efficiency.
Another reason I expect this to continue to be a high-variance series is Milwaukee’s tendency to allow, even encourage, opponents’ three-point attempts. That, combined with Boston’s teamwide streakiness, just has me feeling like I can’t really use the previous game to inform too much about the next one.
You’d have to imagine Antetokounmpo has two transcendent games in him over the course of this series. The thing about having him on your team is that the Bucks don’t necessarily need to make a counter-adjustment to win Game 3. The Greek Freak is physically dominant in a way that only Shaquille O’Neal and LeBron James have been in my lifetime. He is a human adjustment.
I think Tatum and Brown come back to the mean a little bit, and Antetokounmpo has one of those games. I’ve got the Bucks (-2) and I’ll take Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 points.
Memphis Grizzlies (+7, +240) at Golden State Warriors (-7, -300) – 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
I’ve been saying this since the All-Star break. On Reddit, in my hoops group chats, to my girlfriend, who doesn’t care. The Warriors should hope to avoid Memphis in the playoffs. Golden State’s strengths play into exactly what Memphis wants to do, and their best lineups feature three guards who simply have no chance at guarding Ja Morant.
From what I saw in Game 2, Steve Kerr and the Warriors staff need to make tactical adjustments on defence unless they want to see Super Saiyan Morant again. For starters, maybe don’t give up switches on pick and rolls so easily. The Dubs need to do whatever they can to get the ball out of Morant’s hands. Double team him, trap the high pick-and-roll, just send bodies at him. Make him rush. And they need to attack him relentlessly when Memphis is on defence. Run Morant through 10 screens per possession.
But anyone in Dub Nation will tell you that Coach Kerr is frustratingly slow to adjust. And he’s never liked spamming the Stephen Curry–Draymond Green high pick-and-roll, despite how lethal that action is. The Warriors have also been loathe to hunt specific matchups, preferring to let their beautiful motion offence just run as it always does. For as long as Kerr resists those adjustments, the Grizzlies have a tactical advantage.
I don’t think those adjustments come until Game 4, since the Warriors probably feel they should be up 2-0, so why change anything? I don’t know if they can pull off the win outright, but give me the Grizzlies (+7). These teams almost always play close games, so getting points in a very winnable game for Memphis is comforting.
I’ll take Morant OVER 28.5 points with Gary Payton II out indefinitely, and Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds. The Canadian is averaging over seven a game in the postseason and should be on Morant a lot in this one, which means a lot of time in the defensive paint to hit the glass.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +1400
· Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 alternative point spread
· Brook Lopez OVER 0.5 threes made
· Bobby Portis 10 or more rebounds
· Giannis Antetokounmpo 30 or more points
· Jrue Holiday OVER 1.5 steals in the match.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
