Well, Raptors fans. This is it. The Toronto Raptors face elimination Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. If we’re being honest, this team is probably a year ahead of schedule just by being in the playoffs this year, but they’ve looked completely overmatched against Joel Embiid’s Philadelphia 76ers.
The big Cameroonian will probably finish behind Denver’s Nikola Jokic for MVP, but you’d never believe that from this series. Embiid has been everything for the Sixers: shutting down Pascal Siakam on defence, punishing the undersized Raps inside, and hitting the biggest shot of his career to win Game 3 on Thursday.
All the Raptors can do now is postpone the inevitable.
That’s our featured game here, but the other three have plenty of intrigue as well.
The Utah Jazz are in utter disarray after dropping two straight to go down 2-1 against a Luka Doncic-less Dallas Mavericks team that everyone wrote off when the Slovenian injured his calf in the Game 82 of the season. Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets are struggling to crack the ferocious Boston Celtics defence and the Minnesota Timberwolves are somehow in even worse shape than Utah after blowing TWO SEPARATE 25-POINT LEADS en route to a 104-95 loss in Game 3.
This has been a wild first round so far. Let’s get even wilder with some picks!
Overall record against the spread: 6-3
Philadelphia 76ers (-3, -155) at Toronto Raptors (+3, +135) — 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT on Sportsnet
In my breakdown of Game 3, I said I wasn’t sure if Raptors coach Nick Nurse had the horses to make any more adjustments to what Philadelphia is doing. Now ... I’m pretty sure. He doesn’t.
Toronto threw their haymaker, they played a very good game, and they still lost to a heartbreaking overtime three from Embiid.
The Raptors were +12 in the turnover battle. OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa had arguably the best games of their respective careers. And they still lost.
It’s the kind of game that breaks your spirit. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Toronto was right there on a night in which Siakam and Fred VanVleet combined for just 24 points on 9-29 shooting (2-12 from three). If either of Toronto’s All-Stars had a good night, the Raptors probably win that game.
Plus, Embiid may or may not have a torn ligament in the thumb on his shooting hand. Though he plans to keep playing through it (and it didn’t seem to affect him at all during that dominant second half), that may be another silver lining.
Neither team is particularly good or bad against the spread this season, so I’m just going off my eye test here: with a line this tight, and given the trend line of this series, it feels more likely that Philly wins running away than Toronto wins or keeps it close.
I’ve got Philly (-3) in this one, but I’m also taking Fred VanVleet OVER 18.5 points, because even if his shot isn’t falling, FVV is not going out without a fight, and I think he takes like 20 shots.
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Boston Celtics (+3.0, +135) at Brooklyn Nets (-3, -155) — 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet 360
This series is in a very weird place from a betting perspective. Everything I know about Kevin Durant tells me this is the game he figures out how to score consistently against the Celtics. Because KD always figures it out eventually.
But the Nets were just 5-27-1 against the spread as home favourites this season, which terrifies me. They were also just 20-21 at home overall. Plus they just lost a game in which Bruce Brown and Goran Dragic combined for 41 points on 16-26 shooting.
Boston has looked like a title contender and a team with room for improvement. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Playoff series tend to turn into a game of mismatch hunting, and this series features three elite isolation scorers in Durant, Jayson Tatum and Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn, with its armada of tiny guards masquerading as wings, simply has more weak points to exploit than Boston does.
I know I’m going to be kicking myself when Durant and Irving combine for 80 points on 15 made threes, but I’m going with Boston (+3) and the points. I don’t like it, but that’s the pick.
Give me Durant OVER 29.5 points because this is Kevin Durant, and he will find a way to drop a 40-burger at some point in this series.
Memphis Grizzlies (-3, -145) at Minnesota Timberwolves (+3, +125) — 10:00 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT on Sportsnet 360
You think the Raptors’ Game 3 loss was heartbreaking? The handful of Minnesota fans I have in my life were down so bad after the Wolves blew TWO SEPARATE 25 POINT LEADS on Thursday, I wouldn’t even say they were heartbroken. They were just broken.
I’ll remind you that Memphis was the NBA’s best team against the spread this season, including covering the spread 65 per cent of the time as road favourites. None of that matters though. Game 3 was such a backbreaker for the Timberwolves and the Grizzlies have displayed such killer instinct all year, this one seems like a gimme.
I’m betting everyone except Patrick Beverly and Anthony Edwards has given up on this series. Give me Memphis (-3), because this series just feels over. How do you come back from a loss like that?
Random player prop: I’m taking Ja Morant OVER 28.5 points because he was getting great penetration off the bounce in Game 3, he just struggled to finish. Plus, he’s topped 29 points in just under half of his games played this year.
Dallas Mavericks (+6, +200) at Utah Jazz (-6, -240) — 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT
I mean, just trade everyone and start over at this point if you’re Danny Ainge and the Utah Jazz brass. This has been a sad excuse for a playoff series against a Dallas Mavericks squad missing not only its best player in Doncic, but the player around whom everything is built.
This shouldn’t work — and it probably won’t work beyond this match up — but Jalen Brunson is averaging 32/5/5 like some sort of Diet Luka. My guy is in a contract year, and he’s about to get mad paid.
And with the most recent reports as of filing indicating the Mavs are “optimistic” about Doncic’s return for Game 4 ... well if the books want to give me points, I’m here for it. Dallas (+6) is the pick. I’ll take Donovan Mitchell OVER 2.5 threes made as well because Spida is a gunner and if he’s going down, he’s going down shooting.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +1000
• Philadelphia -1.5
• Fred VanVleet OVER 18.5 points
• Tobias Harris OVER 15.5 points
• Joel Embiid OVER 42.5 combined points/rebounds
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
