It’s Day Three of 30 Teams 30 Picks. Today: One of the NBA’s weirdest divisions, featuring a possible title contender (though I’d call Miami the 4th-best team in the East), a team looking for an identity, and three young squads who feel unpredictable. Well, I’m going to try to predict them anyway.
Eastern Conference – Southeast Division
I’ve never believed in this Miami Heat team. And if you take them away, the Southeast starts to look rather paltry. Atlanta could be a decent regular season team, but I’m going to need to see the Dejounte Murray-Trae Young backcourt before I buy it.
Charlotte is essentially relying on LaMelo Ball making a huge leap, especially with the increased likelihood that Miles Bridges misses all or most of the season with the legal trouble he’s in. And then you’ve got the Wizards and the Magic, two teams that are near impossible to bet on. So we’re probably going to bet against them.
It’s time for the Southeast Division.
Miami Heat – o/u 49.5 wins
Key additions – Nikola Jovic (F)
Key losses – P.J. Tucker (F)
The argument for an over pick here would be simple: The rest of this division is so bad, Miami may be able to pad their win totals with all the games against Washington, Orlando, and Charlotte they get to play.
The argument for the under is a bit more nuanced. The Heat looked old and slow in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston, which isn’t anything to be ashamed of. But they’ll be a year older, and their roster has gotten materially worse in losing P.J. Tucker with no replacement for his bulldoggedness on the horizon.
Jimmy Butler is incredible, but former Raptors star Kyle Lowry will turn 37 during the season, and he was really starting to look his age down the stretch last year. That means Gabe Vincent and Max Strus need to seriously step up for Canada’s favourite thicc boi.
But this is Miami.
So maybe I’m totally off base and one or two of the three undrafted rookies they signed end up being legitimate NBA rotation guys. The only reason I’m even hesitating on this is Pat Reilly’s ability to unearth diamond after diamond in the rough. But I’m going UNDER 49.5 wins for the Heat.
Atlanta Hawks – o/u 47.5 wins
Key additions – Dejounte Murray (G), A.J. Griffin (Wing), Mo Harkless (F)
Key losses – Danilo Gallinari (F), Kevin Huerter (G), Delon Wright (G)
A starting lineup of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Clint Capela could be pretty good. So too would be a lineup with De’Andre Hunter in for any of the latter three names on that list.
But for the most part, this Hawk’s squad is going to struggle defensively, even with the addition of Murray.
The comparison for Trae Young has always been to Stephen Curry, just because Trae also attempts very deep threes. But Young has always seemed more like short James Harden to me. He’s a stellar offensive player who just, for whatever reason, does not make an effort to play defence.
And James Harden’s Rockets teams succeeded (to a point) because the front office always surrounded him with very good defenders. Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, Dwight Howard. Young Clint Capela.
The Atlanta Hawks are not that. And playing an absolute sieve like Young 36+ minutes per game without elite defensive help around him is a recipe for giving up a lot of 120-point games. Give me the UNDER 47.5 wins.
Charlotte Hornets – o/u 35.5 wins
Key additions – Mark Williams (C)
Key losses – Probably Miles Bridges (F)
This is a tough one. Their second-best player is facing a prolonged legal battle after pleading not guilty on three domestic violence charges. Considering the circumstances, it’s unclear whether the Hornets will re-sign Bridges, who is a restricted free agent, for the upcoming NBA season.
So, what does this team look like without Bridges?
It’s not pretty once you get beyond LaMelo Ball. But Ball is entering his third season, and could feasibly make the same kind of leap Memphis’ Ja Morant made last season. The kid could turn into a star.
I don’t think the Hornets have enough support around him to be great. Who’s their second-best player? Old Man Gordon Hayward? Scary Terry Rozier? P.J. Washington? I doubt they top 41 wins, but we don’t need them too. I’m betting on this team being extremely mediocre. I’ve got OVER 35.5 wins for Charlotte next season.
Washington Wizards – o/u 35.5 wins
Key additions – Will Barton (Wing), Monte Morris (G), Johnny Davis (F)
Key losses – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Wing), Thomas Bryant (C), Ish Smith (PG)
What are we doing here, Wizards fans? Spending big money on Bradley Beal to run back a team that didn’t make the playoffs last season feels…short-sighted. Frankly, Will Barton and Monte Morris will probably help this team, but it would have been nice to hold on to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in that deal.
We know what Beal can do, but the Wizards are going to need to see serious improvement from young guys like Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija if they intend to improve on last season’s 35 wins. This is such a hard luck franchise at this point it’s tough to go any other way but UNDER 35.5 wins.
Orlando Magic – o/u 27.5 wins
Key additions – Paolo Banchero (F)
Key losses – Robin Lopez (C)
This is probably going to be a very fun team to watch. Heck, they were sneaky fun last season, and they’ve got Paolo Banchero now. I’m projecting their starting lineup to be Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. That’s a decent starting five.
And more important, a high-upside starting five. Wagner and Suggs are entering their second seasons, Cole Anthony his third. Chances are one of two of those guys are going to be much improved compared to last year. If all three make a leap? This team could push .500. And if Jonathan Isaac actually plays basketball, they might not even need that to fight their way to the middle of the pack.
Orlando is long, athletic, young, and talented. They’re going to be a tough out for all but the best teams. I don’t think this team is quite done it’s rebuild, but if Banchero is as good as I think he could be, OVER 27.5 wins is an easy pick. Bonus: It’s a +120 pick on PointsBet right now.
That’s it for the Eastern Conference. Next week: The inevitable bloodbath that is the West.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
Editor's Note: Gambling problems aren't only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person's whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
