Earlier in the week we explained why Nick Senzel, an outfielder in the Cincinnati Reds system, had a case for being named baseball's top prospect following Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s promotion. Turns out Senzel's reign at the top will be a short-lived one. He'll make his big-league debut on Friday night, batting second and playing center when the Reds host the San Francisco Giants -- stream regionally via fuboTV (Try for free).
Senzel may lack Guerrero's bloodlines and name value, but he was the No. 2 pick in the 2016 draft for good reason. The expectation is that he should develop into at least a big-league regular, with a chance to become a regular All-Star and potential batting title champion.
In due time Senzel will prove whether those forecasts were fair or off the mark. In the interim, however, here are some aspects to watch for when it comes to evaluating how he's doing.
Is he playing?
This sounds reductive, but it's not. You may have heard health referred to as the unofficial "sixth" tool -- it's also the only one that, at least lately, Senzel seems to lack.
Senzel would have debuted last year were it not for injury. Instead he's been limited to 52 appearances since the start of 2018 due to a combination of vertigo, a fractured finger, a sprained ankle, and an offseason operation to remove bone chips from his non-throwing elbow.
Senzel appears to be hearty and hale now, but he'll need to put together a couple of (mostly) healthy years if he wants to alleviate any concerns about his body being injury-prone. He can start down that path by avoiding the shelf for the rest of the season.
Is he taking well to center?
Injury has been one constant in Senzel's career; changing positions has been another. Originally drafted and developed as a third baseman, he shifted to second base last season out of deference to Eugenio Suarez. Scooter Gennett then authored an All-Star year, causing the Reds to again move Senzel, this time to center field.
Cincinnati's pitchers have been spoiled in recent years by watching Billy Hamilton track down almost everything hit remotely near him. Senzel won't ever reach Hamilton's level, but he should become respectable in due time thanks to his above-average arm and potential to flash well-above-average speed. For now, though, it's understandable if his center-field defense remains a work in progress given that he's played fewer than 70 regular-season innings there.
Is he hitting?
No matter what Senzel does defensively, he can earn high standing in Cincinnati by producing at the plate. As it stands, Jesse Winker (107) is the only Reds outfielder with an OPS+ north of 40. Factor in Joey Votto's struggles, and David Bell's lineup could use a boost.
Senzel ought to provide one. Scouts believe he has the approach and barrel awareness to hit .300 or better on a consistent basis, making him a threat to win the batting title in any given year. His above-average pop is more likely to result in oodles of doubles than home runs, but he's also regarded as an intelligent baserunner who could swipe double-digit bases. Add in a willingness to take walks, as well as the ability to fend off strikeouts, and he should serve as a fixture near the top of the Reds lineup for the foreseeable future.
Keep an eye on the obvious indicators offensive skill: is Senzel hitting the ball hard? Is he commanding the strike zone? Is he making adjustments to more elaborate (and better executed) gameplans? And so on.
If Senzel is doing those things -- and if he's staying healthy and doing fine in center field -- then the Reds will have added an impact talent at a time when they could use one.
