HOUSTON - Game 1 of the 2022 World Series was amazing theater. Each team rallied in two separate innings in the early going to put crooked numbers on the board and then we were treated to brilliant pitching for a while. For those of us with action on the game, it was fruitful as well. I'll send a big, warm thank you in the direction of both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper for keeping us on the plus side.
Game 2 brings us a juicy pitching matchup. It's All-Star lefty Framber Valdez for the Astros while All-Star righty Zack Wheeler goes for the Phillies. Speaking of which ...
UNDER 7 runs (-115)
The over is going to be our friend in the series after it hit last night and will hit again probably all three games in Philly. This one will be the exception.
Both teams are pretty unfamiliar with the opposing starters.
In fact, Wheeler has never faced the Astros. Only three Astros players have ever seen him and none of them have seen him more than five times. Trey Mancini is 1 for 4 and the two catchers are a combined 0 for 6. That's it. No one else has ever faced him. Unfamiliarity is big for the pitcher.
Valdez has seen the Phillies. Once. He threw five scoreless innings against them on Oct. 5 with 10 strikeouts. It was the last day of the regular season and neither team was playing for anything. Only Brandon Marsh has seen him more than seven times and most of the lineup hasn't seen him more than twice.
Both bullpens were used heavily in Game 1, but we didn't see any particular reliever shoulder such a heavy load as to be unavailable in Game 2. Both teams will aggressively try to win this one in their bullpen management, too. Runs will be hard to come by.
Run it back?
In Game 1, we went with Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases and he rewarded us with two singles. We also went with Kyle Schwarber over 0.5 runs scored and he scored once. I do think runs will be hard to come by and Valdez is a tough matchup for both. I don't want to fully commit to either of those things repeating, but there's a case to be made for riding the hot hand. Harper has gone over 1.5 total bases, ridiculously, in 10 of his last 11 games. Schwarber has scored a run in seven of his last eight.
So, let's at least give it a look:
Harper over 1.5 total bases, +156Schwarber over 0.5 runs, +102Strikeouts?
What I like most in this game are the starting pitchers. The strikeout odds aren't great, though.
Valdez over 5.5 strikeouts, -143Wheeler over 4.5 strikeouts, -208I think they both go over, with Wheeler being the much more likely pick, but those are heavy odds. We could also take Wheeler over 16.5 outs recorded (that's 5 2/3 innings to get us home) at -139, but it's far from a sure thing.
I guess this is all a bunch of extra words to say I really only like the under in this one. If pressed, I'm good to ride the under and Harper, Schwarber, Valdez and Wheeler, but the conservative side of me says we've been winning a ton and Game 2 is a good time to hold back a good portion of our winnings and just bet the under.
