If you've been following this column for the last few weeks you've likely noticed that I tend to pick Unders with high frequency. There's a reason for it, and it's not that I'm some weird, old-school Defense Wins Championships wonk. I like defense, but I'm like everybody else in that I also love seeing points scored as well.
Touchdowns are fun, as are ridiculous three-pointers, and home runs. All of these things are great and bring enjoyment, which is what sports are (supposed to be) all about. But that joy is why I find so much value in picking Unders.
If we all like points and offensive fireworks, when it comes to betting, we all tend to lean toward the Over because it's a lot more fun to root for scoring than it is against it. Which, in turn, leads to totals for games being inflated more often due to the public tendency to want there to be more points scored, and that in turn leads to value on Unders.
And today I have three more Unders available to you. I know, they're not as fun as rooting for Overs, but I promise you that your bankroll appreciates them.
All odds are via Westgate.
1. Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks: Under 215
When it comes to the Under in the NBA this season, Dallas and Memphis have been two of the more reliable teams in the league. Dallas has seen 56.8 percent of its games go under this season, which ranks fourth in the NBA, while Memphis is right behind it at 56.6 percent. Not surprisingly, this has been evident in their games against one another.
They've met twice this season, and the Under has gone 2-0 in those games (it's also 5-0-1 between them the last few seasons), but more important than that, the two games have featured an average of 189 points. Only once did either team break 100 points in the game (Memphis won the last meeting 111-81 in Dallas). They don't score many points against one another, so there's value with this total set at 215.
If you're looking for a pick against the spread, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified one NBA matchup on Friday where one side of the spread is cashing in 66 percent of simulations. Find out this strong ATS pick by heading over to SportsLine.
2. Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: Under 216
Like Memphis and Dallas, Denver has been one of the best Under teams in the NBA. It ranks second in the league with an Under rate of 59.7 percent, trailing only the Lakers and their remarkable 61.5 percent rate. Unlike our previous matchup, however, the two games between the Nuggets and Blazers this season have both gone over. I still like the Under here, though, because Denver's been on a very strong Under stretch.
The Under is 5-0 in Denver's last five home games, 13-3 in its previous 16 against conference opponents, and 21-6 in its last 27 overall. As for the Blazers, when they're underdogs the Under is 17-12, including 14-9 when they're underdogs on the road. I like the chances of them staying below this total Friday night.
The SportsLine Projection Model also has a strong play on the Blazers-Nuggets total, with one side cashing in a whopping 69 percent of simulations. You can see the computer's picks for the game only at SportsLine.
3. Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros: Under 8.5
Baseball is a sport of numbers. The teams themselves are effectively being run by algorithms based on the statistical performance of players these days. I find a lot of this data useful for picking MLB games, but sometimes you don't need any secrets. Sometimes things just happen, and even if you aren't sure why, you accept that they happen. So why am I taking the Under in this game? Just because Houston starter Collin McHugh has made 19 starts at home as a member of the Astros during his career., and the Under has gone 14-4-1 in those starts. Sometimes, that's enough.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has simulated Week 3 in baseball 10,000 times, and he's identified three key outfielders worth snapping up in your Fantasy leagues. Find out his picks to click over at SportsLine.
