The first two games of the series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics in the 2019 NBA Playoffs were decided by 20-plus points. Game 3 in Boston was a seven-point Bucks victory, but Milwaukee held a huge advantage before taking the pedal off the gas. Now both teams know what to do -- and what not to do -- when Game 4 tips off from TD Garden on Monday at 7 p.m. ET. Giannis Antetokounmpo was a major factor in Milwaukee's Game 3 victory, while Kyrie Irving and Al Horford were key on both sides of the floor in their dominant Game 1 win. Each team has shot lights-out in victories and well below average in defeats. This time around, Boston a 1.5-point favorite at home in the current Bucks vs. Celtics odds, while the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219.5, down from an open of 221. You'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model is showing before locking in any Bucks vs. Celtics picks for Game 4.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 28 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,100 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 28 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Game 4 of Bucks vs. Celtics in the NBA Playoffs 2019. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows Antetokounmpo looked like an MVP candidate in Game 3 following a pair of relatively average outputs in the opening two games of the series. The Greek Freak went off for 32 points, including 16-of-22 from the line, along with 13 points and eight assists, in the Bucks' 123-115 victory in Boston. Milwaukee's depth shined on Friday, too, as George Hill and Pat Connaughton combined for 35 points and 11 rebounds.
No team dominated opposition more than Milwaukee. Not only did the Bucks end the regular season with 66 wins -- three more than any other team - they won by an average of 9.3 points, nearly three more than the Warriors and more than double the Celtics' mark of 4.4. The Bucks circle the wagons in situations like this as well. They're an impressive 8-2 against the spread as an underdog this season, including 7-1 on the road.
But just because top-seeded Milwaukee got back on track in Game 3 doesn't mean it'll cover the Bucks vs. Celtics spread in Game 4.
While Giannis and the Bucks have dominated most of their competition this year, the Celtics know how to beat them. Boston controlled the paint in Game 1 and shot 54 percent from the field while holding the Bucks to 35 percent shooting. Irving had 26 points, seven boards and 11 assists. Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo was just 7-of-21 from the field and 5-of-10 at the line.
Horford, who spends much of his time on defense guarding Antetokounmpo, is key on both sides. In the Game 1 win, he had 20 points, 11 rebounds and zero turnovers. In the two Boston losses, he's averaged 16.0 points, 8.0 boards and 4.0 turnovers.
So who wins Bucks vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread is a must-back, all from the advanced computer model that's up more than $3,100 on top-rated NBA picks.
