Facing a 3-2 deficit and needing a win to send the series to a deciding Game 7, the Portland Trail Blazers backcourt dominated on Thursday to provide Portland with a 119-108 victory over the Denver Nuggets. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum combined to score 62 points on 47 shots. However, the Trail Blazers still haven't found an answer for Nikola Jokic, who had 29 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. He's averaging 26.8 points, 14 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game and is shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc. With the series heading back to Denver on Sunday, limiting Jokic will be of the utmost importance if the Blazers want to advance to the Western Conference finals to face the Golden State Warriors. Game 7 tips-off from the Pepsi Center at 3:30 p.m. ET. Denver enters Sunday's showdown as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 212.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Blazers odds. But before you make your 2019 NBA Playoff predictions, be sure to check out the Nuggets vs. Blazers picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has honed in on Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine.
The model knows that home teams have a long history of success in Game 7. In fact, home teams have won 105 of 133 Game 7s in NBA history, a 78.9 winning percentage. The most recent winner-take-all game was won by Denver in the first round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs against the visiting San Antonio Spurs. That Nuggets win continued their success at home this year. During the regular season, Denver went an astounding 34-7 at the Pepsi Center, the best home record in the NBA.
In addition, the model also has considered that Denver has several statistical advantages in this series. The Nuggets have the edge in points (116.0 to 113.2), three-point shooting percentage (35.4 to 34.8), free throw shooting percentage (83.3 to 73.6), rebounds (51.5 per game to 46.3) and turnovers (11.3 to 12.0).
But just because Denver is playing at home does not guarantee it will cover the Nuggets vs. Blazers spread.
The model is also well aware that Portland's offensive efficiency is critical to its success. Lillard and McCollum have combined to score 51.9 points per game this series, but haven't shot the ball particularly well. In fact, Lillard is shooting just 29.8 percent from beyond the arc and McCollum is shooting 42.6 percent from the floor.
However, both players showed up when it mattered most. In Thursday's Game 6 victory over the Nuggets, Lillard hit 6-of-13 from the 3-point line while McCollum hit 12-of-24 from the floor. McCollum is averaging 30.3 points per game in Portland's three victories in this series and just 19 in the losses, so getting him going early will be key to the Trail Blazers covering and possibly pulling off the upset on the road.
So who wins Blazers vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Blazers vs. Nuggets spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that's up more than $3,000 on its top-rated NBA picks.
