If there's one lesson to take away from this edition of Tuesday's Top Picks, it's that betting on NBA Draft Lottery odds is always a bad idea. The NBA Draft process gives you the statistical data to determine probabilities prior to the event, and still someone is going to try to cash in on the New York Knicks getting the No. 1 pick while not getting value that lines up to those probabilities at all. Oddsmakers are playing the market, and the market is choosing to ignore the probabilities provided by the NBA in favor of wild, blind guessing.
Play the lottery? Sure. Wager on lottery numbers? It's not my bag, but go for it. But going all in on NBA Draft Lottery props is more degenerate and maniacal than about anything else on the board.
For plays we actually support, our attention turns to conference finals in the NBA and NHL, along with a PGA Championship head-to-head pick for the weekend. All odds via Westgate.
1. Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors: Warriors -7.5
Don't overthink this. The Warriors were stunned by the loss of Kevin Durant at a time when he was playing like the best basketball in the world, but something has happened in the readjustment after his injury. It's like the rest of the roster got doused with cold water, now stirred to full consciousness and in complete control of their collective powers. I expect working through Portland in this series will be a little bit of muscle memory for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, and part of that winning recipe can be a dominant Game 1 win on the home floor.
The SportsLine Projection Model is locking in two strong plays in Game 1 of Blazers-Warriors, with its ATS pick cashing in 56 percent of simulations and its total pick cashing in 58 percent of simulations. See which picks the computer loves at SportsLine.
2. Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes: Hurricanes -115
The Hurricanes are undefeated on home ice in these playoffs and have their backs against the wall after losing Game 1 and Game 2 by a combined 11-4 score. I don't think it matters if Petr Mrazek or Curtis McElhinney is in goal; the Carolina defense is good enough to answer the bell following handfuls of breakdowns against Boston's balanced offensive attack. The 'Canes have been able to lean back on their first-round experience, when they stormed back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Washington in seven games, as an example for what needs to happen. But it's all talk if they can't come through with a win in Game 3 on home ice.
Switching tracks to MLB, SportsLine expert Michael Rusk entered Tuesday on a 42-20 heater before making the Indians one of his best bets on the road in a matinee game. See which other teams earn his stamp of approval only at SportsLine.
3. PGA Championship matchups: Brooks Koepka (+110) vs. Rory McIlroy
It might be time for us to start treating Brooks Koepka in majors the way we would Alabama football or Duke basketball. If there is a line or prop that has these elite powers as underdogs, it's time to jump in as a matter of principle. You could argue that in the calendar year of 2019, no one in golf has been better than Rory McIlroy. He's got eight top-10 finishes and he won the Players Championship back in March. But Brooks Koepka is a monster at major championships. He's not only won three of his last seven starts, he's got nine top-10 finishes in the last five years. And most importantly, he's finished higher on the leaderboard than Rory in four of his last five major starts. If he does that again, we'll cash at plus odds here.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the PGA Championship 10,000 times, and perhaps the biggest surprise in the results is that Tiger Woods doesn't even crack the top five. Check out the entire projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
