You can do worse as a rule of thumb than stating Major League Baseball's season does not officially begin until the Los Angeles Dodgers are in firm possession of first place.
It's become customary to expect the Dodgers to sit atop the National League West, as they've won the division in every season except one since 2013. They've already spent 11 days in first this year, though they're currently a half-game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks as games begin Tuesday. There's no reason to panic about that deficit -- it's late April, after all -- but the Dodgers being in second does make for a convenient narrative device to mention the other unusual part of their year to date: the reliance on a pair of rookie hitters in the starting lineup, in center fielder James Outman and second baseman Miguel Vargas.
Don't get it twisted. These Dodgers still have an aging core -- as it stands, this would be the second oldest collection of hitters, weighed by at-bats, in franchise history (though the Robins had a few groups older yet). Still, it hasn't been easy for any young position player to crack the Dodgers lineup in recent years. For Outman and Vargas to both do it says something, about them and about the Dodgers (even if what it says is the Dodgers wanted to keep powder dry for a run at Shohei Ohtani). Certainly, on some level, they must value both players highly.
Outman, one of CBS Sports' breakout player picks, has made the most of his opportunity. He's been the Dodgers' most productive player this season, according to Baseball Reference's calculations, slamming seven home runs and hitting for a 190 OPS+ in 85 plate appearances. Vargas hasn't been nearly as productive, checking in with an 81 OPS+, but to his credit, he has maintained a nearly 1-to-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio while taking up a new position.
Below, CBS Sports has delved in on each Dodgers rookie, noting the good and the bad and what it means for their long-term futures in L.A.
James Outman, CF
If the season ended today, Outman would be the unanimous winner of the NL Rookie of the Year Award. That's no small feat given some of the other candidates in the running. He's been dynamite for the Dodgers, batting .311/.400/.703 with seven home runs and two stolen bases. He's performed like his idealized final form -- think: a souped-up Colby Rasmus, of sorts.
Outman is hitting the ball hard (and at optimized angles); he's commanding the strike zone; and he's leveraging his jets (and his strong arm) on defense to make some impressive plays look ordinary. You would be within reason to ask if the Dodgers have their new homegrown star outfielder, following in the cleatprints of Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson. Our answer is maybe, provided that you're not making such an assertion based solely on his batting average.
The fear with Outman coming into the season was that his swing-and-miss tendencies would result in a bloated strikeout rate. That he would become -- and we do apologize for this -- Strikeoutman. Those concerns were valid at the time, and we think it would be premature to tuck them in just yet.
The dirty secret about Outman's start is that he's still whiffing frequently. He ranks in the 11th percentile in contact rate. He's just been able to keep his strikeout rate under 30% and his batting average above .300. How likely is he to maintain either side of that? Take a look at the following table, which shows the 10 batters who most closely compare to Outman in contact rate:
When viewed through that lens, it's probably fair to assume Outman's average is going to drop, and that his K rate may climb closer to 30%. That's the bad news. The good news is that Outman contributes in so many other ways that he should be able to weather some strikeout-heavy stretches. He doesn't have to hit .300 in order to be playable, or to be immensely valuable to the Dodgers.
And if Outman does, somehow, maintain that shiny average? Well, he'll need to figure out where he wants to put his trophy at year's end.
Miguel Vargas, 2B
Vargas became a source of content inspiration during spring training, when a fractured pinky finger prevented him from swinging the bat. He still stood in the box and tracked pitches to sharpen his eye, the way hitters do during early camp bullpen sessions. New habits are supposed to take at least two months to form; Vargas must be a quick learner, because his springtime exercise in patience has stuck to him. He enters Tuesday's game with a 40% swing rate and a 17% chase rate, putting him at an extreme end of both leaderboards. (The league-average rates, for those wondering, are 47% swing and 28% chase.)
Taking pitches should be viewed as a tool, akin to jump scares in horror movies. There needs to be a purpose behind it, because doing it just to do it has ill effects. The purpose can be as simple as working oneself into a more advantageous count, but it shouldn't obscure that the actual goal is to get a fat pitch to hit. (To tie up the comparison: the jump scare should supplement, not substitute for the atmosphere in horror films.) Is Vargas taking pitches for a purpose, or is he just doing it to do it? In other words, is he being passive and letting hittable pitches fly by? Based on his results so far (.213/.364/.295 with zero home runs in 78 trips to the plate), you might say the latter. Analyzing a hitter's approach is more complicated than pointing to their statline, however, especially in small samples. Each batter has their own unique calculus.
Besides, to be fair to Vargas, his line could easily look better. He's recorded seven outs on batted balls that had exit velocities of 97 mph or faster. Five of those had launch angles between 10 and 30 degrees, a sixth had a 31-degree launch angle. Where the ball is hit matters, too, but the point is that he could've cleared the gap a few times by now and we'd be writing about how his combination of discipline and strength make him an intriguing young hitter (the way we did over the winter) and a great stylistic fit in a lineup that also features Mookie Betts and Max Muncy. Instead, he's slugging .667 on batted balls with a 95-plus mph exit velocity -- the league-average mark is .974.
If and when Vargas gets his bat right, the focus will shift to his defense. The nicest compliment anyone can give him about his glovework is that he looks adequate at second base. Bear in mind, he was a third baseman coming up, and he'll make only his 50th professional appearance at the keystone this week. (That includes minor-league time.) He's not a smooth fielder with silky actions and quick-twitch athleticism, but he's making most of the plays required of him. He'll still get eaten up or boxed in occasionally. The Dodgers will live with it provided that he hits like they know he's capable of hitting.
