The Boston Red Sox had a somewhat muted trade deadline given their status as contenders with vast resources. That's in part a reflection of ownership's present unwillingness to invest in the product at the levels they should, but on a smaller level it was a response to the fact that the return of ace lefty Chris Sale from Tommy John surgery was in the offing. When it comes to stretch-drive roster reinforcements, a talent like Sale is hard to match.
That return has happened -- more on that in a moment -- and recent events have raised the stakes for both Sale and the Red Sox. Thanks in part to the recent sweep at the hands of the rival Yankees, the Red Sox are now out of playoff position in the American League, albeit quite narrowly. For a team that won 55 games in the first half and in early July held a 4 ½-game lead in the AL East, that's a sharp reversal of fortunes. It also puts the spotlight on Sale moving forward.
If the Sox are going to climb back into playoff position and perhaps put heat on the Rays at the top of the division, then Sale is going to need to assume vintage form straight away.
First, there's the matter of why the Sox need something like Peak Sale over the final five weeks or so of the regular season. Right now, Boston ranks a middling eighth in the 15-team AL in rotation ERA, which is not optimal for an aspiring playoff team. What's also less than encouraging is that they also rank 13th in the AL in rotation WHIP. They're tied for 13th quality start percentage, and they're ninth in average Game Score.
On a specific level, you've got Nathan Eovaldi as a capable No. 2 or No. 3 man who has the potential to rise to meet his peripheral indicators and become something close to a near-ace, assuming health. After that, though, things get sketchy. Nick Pivetta has shown flashes at times, but his current peak appears to be that of a league-average-ish starting pitcher. That has value, to be sure, but he can't co-anchor the front end for the team with designs on playing in October. Meantime, Eduardo Rodriguez and his somewhat diminished velocity have an ERA of almost 5.00.
As for Sale, there's ample reason to think he can be the frontline ace the Sox need. In his first start back, he allowed two runs in five innings, but more impressively he struck out eight against zero walks. That succeeded his dominant rehab assignment.
Also encouraging is that the team took a deliberate and somewhat slow approach to his recovery from Tommy John. The hope is that Sale, because of that methodical return to the majors, won't deal with the early command-and-control issues that often afflict pitchers fresh off the surgery.
Sale has pitched to a 3.08 ERA and 6.69 K/BB ratio in parts of three seasons with Boston, and that includes the disappointing 2019 campaign when he plainly wasn't himself because of the elbow issues that eventually necessitated surgery. For his 10-year career, he owns an ERA+ of 140 and a WAR of 45.6. He's also the active career leader in strikeout rate and K/BB ratio. At age 32, there's no reason that deep decline should be on his radar. The track record is there, obviously, and so is the post-surgery performance (albeit across a limited sample).
Assuming Sale stays on schedule, he'll have nine starts left in the regular season, counting Friday's against Texas. Those are nine starts that, in Sale's absence, would've gone to someone far lesser. That's both a reflection of Sale's excellence and the Red Sox's rather pitiful depth at the role.
If Sale makes the most of those chances, then the Sox -- in essence locked in a fight with the Yankees and A's (and perhaps the Mariners and Blue Jays) for two wild card spots -- then a return to the postseason may be in order. If Sale is much less than his usual self, then the Red Sox's story for 2021 will be one of missed opportunity and refusal to behave like a big-market winner at the deadline. The front office bet big on Sale by doing so little leading up to July 30. We'll soon know if that bet paid off.
