Will he be traded? It is the single biggest story as we begin in earnest the run-up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline in Major League Baseball, and it will remain the biggest story until that question is answered. Perhaps some specifics are in order. "He" would be two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels. Ohtani is eligible for free agency this coming offseason, and thus far he's shown little interest in signing an extension with the team that first inked him out of Japan prior to the 2018 season.
All of that in tandem with the Angels' tenuous playoff hopes has given rise to speculation that a true deadline blockbuster involving the most famous baseball player in the world may be in the offing.
Suffice it to say, Angels owner Arte Moreno and general Perry Minasian have a career- and legacy-altering decision before them – to trade or not to trade. Such a dilemma calls for an appraisal of the arguments for and against shipping off Ohtani to, say, the Bronx or just up the road to Dodger Stadium or somewhere else. As you're about to see, it's a complicated decision, and the Angels have a mere two weeks to land on their answer.
Now let's examine both sides.
The case against trading Ohtani
The most fundamental risk is that the Angels could squander a postseason berth by parting with Ohtani for the final two months of the regular season. As we've seen time and again in MLB, even the heaviest of playoff underdogs can make a deep run – such is the nature of postseason baseball and the randomness it invites – so the point is to get there and see what happens. The Angels right now are not in playoff position or especially close to it, but they're not completely buried.
Right now, the Halos (who blew a four-run lead on Sunday against the Astros) are in fourth place in the American League West and nine games behind the division-leading Rangers. Elsewhere, the Angels are six games out of the final AL wild-card spot and behind three teams in that particular queue. That latter path is the more plausible one.
As well, there's good evidence that the Angels are better than their current record. They have a positive run differential thus far, and if you look more deeply into the things that underpin runs scored and runs allowed – as captured by Clay Davenport's third-order standings – you find more cause for optimism. At this fundamental level, the Angels in 2023 have under-performed their expected record on this front by three games. Maybe they find that truer level in the weeks to come and improve their odds. The larger point is that they do have a puncher's chance to get into the playoffs, and as long as you have realistic hopes of getting in you should make your personnel decisions accordingly. That would obviously mean not trading the best player in baseball.
Now consider the backdrop. The Angels have rather infamously failed to notch a winning season since 2015 or make the playoffs since 2014 (or win a playoff game since 2009). That's a span that includes Mike Trout's legendary peak years and Ohtani's singular achievements. The fact that the Angels are close to losing Ohtani to free agency heightens the pressure to finally break through. Ohtani on multiple occasions has mentioned winning as his priority and a factor that will inform his decisions during free agency. Who knows, maybe at last giving him a taste of that while still in Anaheim will make him more open to returning to the Angels after he hits the market. That's a gamble worth taking.
Beyond that, consider that by trading Ohtani prior to Aug. 1, the Angels could be divorcing themselves from his latest appointments with history. What if he becomes the first player in MLB history to win the MVP after being traded during that MVP season? Perhaps more harrowing to the Angels is that Ohtani after being traded might go on to make a run at 60 home runs – or maybe Aaron Judge's freshly minted American League record of 62 home runs (provided Ohtani is traded to another AL team). Right now, Ohtani is sitting on an MLB-leading tally of 33 home runs, and given his recent uptick in production – 18 of those homers have come since June 1 – it's possible he threatens those marks. Such a push would captivate baseball, but he'd be doing it in another team's uniform.
Right now, the Angels are a respectable 11th in MLB in average home attendance. Presumably, Ohtani is the single biggest driver of that figure. Removing him from the roster will be a turnstile hit regardless of how his stretch drive plays out, but if he makes a run at 50 and then 60 and then maybe 62 homers and dominates the day-to-day news cycle as much as he dominates opposing pitchers? That's going to amount to quite a bit of squandered ticket sales if he's doing that somewhere else.
A lesser consideration, but still one worth noting, are the optics of trading away a talent who's unexampled in baseball history. It's one thing to say that you were unable to persuade Ohtani to sign an extension. It's another to trade him away in the midst of fringe contention and his finest ever season at the plate. That's worth thinking about, particularly for an organization that's not known for recent competence.
The case for trading Ohtani
Yes, the Angels aren't close to elimination yet, but their odds of making the playoffs are pretty steep at the moment. SportsLine gives them less than a 3% chance of making the postseason, and that figure should perhaps be even lower in light of the current injuries to core contributors like Trout, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon, Gio Urshela, Logan O'Hoppe, and Jo Adell.
Beyond those current realities, here's another: The Angels play one of the AL's toughest remaining schedules the rest of the way. Thus far, the Angels rank 29th in MLB when it comes to strength of schedule as measured by opponents' average winning percentage. The Halos' average opponent to date has a 2023 winning percentage of .486. Moving forward, however, that figure will rise to .511. Among AL squads, only the Rays have a tougher haul the rest of the way. Very likely, the franchise's playoff drought will continue, and that should inform the deadline approach.
Then there's the essential matter of getting what you can for Ohtani. While you don't get as much in trade for deadline "rentals" as you once did, you'll still get more future value via trade than you will via the compensatory draft pick that flows from tendering a qualifying offer to the outgoing free agent. In this instance, the Angels would be trading one of the most valuable players ever swapped leading up to the deadline, one whose value on the field is perhaps equaled by his capacity to click turnstiles and draw eyeballs to televisions. Contenders figure to be willing to pay up for that, especially when it's a player who promises rotation and hitting excellence from a single roster spot.
Moreover, the Angels could benefit from what figures to be a thin crop of sellers leading up to the deadline. The winnable nature of both Central divisions plus the three wild-card berths in each league mean that the vast majority of teams are too close to playoff position to justify compromising their present rosters. While having a player the towering likes of Ohtani on some level makes market considerations moot, let's nevertheless note that those on the deadline demand side of things might be left scrambling on account of the lack of options. In a thin market for sellers, dangling a player who, as noted, fills two holes at once is a powerful thing. Minasian can strike a serious blow for the future of the franchise by trading Ohtani.
In the end, it's a decision that will determine not only the Angels' present and the impact of the trade deadline at large, but also the long-term outlook of the franchise. Acknowledge how complicated the decision is, be grateful you don't have to make it, and then enjoy watching it unfurl as Aug. 1 approaches.
