Six Nations: England face being shown up by fired-up France

The final weekend of the Six Nations is a second-screen experience. Log off the phone though and fire up the calculator because the maths, as ever, could get messy.

Victory for France lands them the title.

A win for Ireland earlier in the day, brings draws and bonus points into France's equation.

Points difference may yet be Ireland's trump card.

England fans will be asking different questions though - calculations with less obvious answers and longer-term implications.

Would staying within a score of this dashing France team be a moral victory?

Is a win percentage of just over 50% over the last three Six Nations campaigns enough?

How many more beatings can England take before faith in head coach Eddie Jones is dented beyond repair?

Jones can hear the rumble over the horizon.

"Post the game those sort of discussions can be had," he told BBC Radio 5 Live on Thursday.

"We feel like we are making good progress as a team. We would prefer to be playing for the title, but we are not, but we feel the team is making good progress."

It can only be a "feeling". The numbers are not there.

England could wind up on Sunday evening with a second successive fifth-place finish for the first time in Six Nations history.

They would need to score five tries against France to equal even last year's meagre total of 12.

There have been glimpses of what might be. England have given hints at their backline sparkle and coalface spirit over the past year.

When Freddie Steward carved to the line against Australia in the autumn, we saw how the attack could work.

When 14 men's bloody-mindedness made up the numbers against Ireland last week, the talk of a new level of team unity rang true.

But moments are for showreels. Tournaments reveal teams. The Six Nations is a thorough examination, that takes teams to enemy territory and dark places. And once again, England are coming home among the stragglers.

Jones has his defence. He is an expert at prepping teams to peak for Rugby World Cups.

England finished fifth in the 2018 Six Nations, the equivalent tournament to this one in the last cycle, before making the final in Yokohama 18 months later.

A plan more than a year in the making came good when he masterminded Japan's win over the Springboks in 2015.

He was part of backroom staff that guided South Africa to the trophy in 2007. An unfancied Australia pushed England deep in the 2003 final in his first run at the tournament.

France 2023 rarely slips from the top of Jones' mind. Even this week, he mentioned it. England's Tuesday arrival in Paris was to give them a feel for the host nation before the 2023 tournament, apparently.

There are mitigating circumstances too. The initial plan to play Owen Farrell at centre as a steadying hand and second pair of eyes for rookie fly-half Marcus Smith was wrecked by injury.

Manu Tuilagi's battering-ram power, a midfield option so easy to play to and so difficult to defend, was similarly lost.

But, still, doubts run deep. The suggestion is that Jones has fumbled a succession plan, that the transition between two eras has been too clunky.

With a playing pool of the Premiership's depth at his disposal, should only four of the 10 starting wings over the tournament have been specialists in the position? Steward is the latest to swap in after Joe Marchant, Max Malins and Tuilagi have given it a go over the past 12 months.

Mark Atkinson, Ollie Lawrence and Paolo Odogwu have come into camp offering something the current centres don't. All have gone again without an extended run in the team.

There is no clear preferred option at number eight, scrum-half or hooker.

The team selected to face France has come from leftfield. George Furbank comes in from the wilderness to start at full-back, a role he hasn't filled since October 2020. Will the apparent screeching U-turn back to a kick-heavy strategy be for one night only? Or a more permanent reversion?

The contrast is stark.

There is no fog around France. They come at you in high definition. Relentless forward surges, rapier thrusts out wide, drum-tight defence and a set of proven replacements ready to slot in on the touchline.

A golden generation, who won the World Under 20 Championship in 2018 and 2019, have engendered a feel-good factor. Television ratings are up, confidence is high, the plan is clear; take the Grand Slam this year, win the World Cup next.

England's goals are more modest. Trophies are off the menu for now. On form, matching France for most of the game, in most areas, would be a decent return.

Sacking the Stade de France, overturning the odds, potentially throwing the title to Ireland, would be one of the great victories of Jones' spell in charge. A result to sit alongside the semi-final vanquishing of the All Blacks in 2019. An emphatic answer to the critics and doubters.

Anything else and the questions only get more insistent.

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