It’s Day 6 of 30 Teams 30 Picks. Today: We’re wrapping up with arguably the most exciting division in the NBA in terms of potential. The Southwest features three of the league’s brightest young stars in Luka Doncic, Ja Morant and Zion Williamson. We know what we’re getting out of two of them. The question remains: What will Zion do?
Western Conference – Southwest Division
It really puts into stark relief how great the top half of the West is when you write about them back-to-back like this. The Southwest is another division featuring three teams I have high hopes for, and only one of those – the New Orleans Pelicans – feels like a tiny reach.
Dallas and Memphis were on my “great value title contenders” list, both available at +2200. Memphis gave the eventual champs in Golden State a tough time all season, while Dallas already has a conference finals trip under their collective belts.
New Orleans? They went from a 4-16 start to one of the friskier 8-seeds in recent memory after upsetting the Clippers in the Play-In Tournament. And they (ostensibly) get Zion Williamson back.
Also, Houston and San Antonio are here.
Memphis Grizzlies – o/u 50.5 wins
Key additions – Jake LaRavia (F), David Roddy (F)
Key losses – Kyle Anderson (F), DeAnthony Melton (G)
I believe in Ja Morant. But even more than that, I believe in the core the Memphis Grizzlies have built around Morant. That’s the crux of why I think Memphis will be good again in the 2022-23 season.
The pieces fit together so well, and the timelines mesh perfectly. Desmond Bane spaces the floor and has an otherworldly sense of when and how to get open as Morant drives. Jaren Jackson Jr. has become one of the league’s elite shot blockers, and he also happens to space the floor. Zaire Williams showed flashes of becoming a perfect three-and-d role player.
And Dillon Brooks brings so much tenacity at both ends you almost don’t notice when he shoots the Grizzlies out of games doing his Kobe impression. Plus, their core should all be a little bit better every year as their careers progress.
Memphis has a star to get behind, they’ve developed an identity, and they have plenty of room for improvement. My only worry is that they went 7-1 against Denver and the L.A. Clippers last season, and those games will be much tougher wins to pick up this year. Plus a motivated (and improved) Mavericks squad is in their own division. This is less about Memphis and more about their competition, but I like the UNDER 50.5 wins. No one will want to see the Grizz in the playoffs, though.
Dallas Mavericks – o/u 47.5 wins
Key additions – Christian Wood (C), JaVale McGee (C), Jaden Hardy (G)
Key losses – Jalen Brunson (G)
Jalen Brunson’s departure will be tough to absorb. He was Dallas’ best playmaker, scorer, and leader not named Luka Doncic. But that vacuum can be filled, with a combination of Spencer Dinwiddie stepping up, and Doncic making that final leap from top-10 player to MVP.
No one in the league feels more likely to carry his team to a championship the way LeBron James did in 2016 than Doncic. As great as he’s been in his short career, it feels like we haven’t yet reached the ceiling for the Mavericks’ star.
And he’s playing with, arguably, the two best pick and roll partners he’s had in a long time in Christian Wood and JaVale McGee.
Yes, I just called JaVale McGee a great roll man. Don’t judge. Watch the tape. The guy still rolls to the rim with a vengeance and provides the kind of vertical spacing that Maxi Kleber can only dream of.
Wood brings some optionality, as an adept pick and pop shooter.
Despite all that, when you have a transcendent star like Doncic, the difference between winning and losing usually comes down to what you do when that star is off the floor. And that’s where Dinwiddie becomes arguably the Mavs’ most important role player. If he can find his way back to the 20 points per game he was putting up a few years ago, Dallas will be in business.
The Mavericks have a better big man rotation, the same elite three-and-d wings as last year in Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith, and Luka Doncic heading into his prime. The only question is “can Dinwiddie rise to the occasion?” I think so, and I think this team could win the division running away. Give me the OVER 47.5 wins.
New Orleans Pelicans – o/u 44.5 wins
Key additions – Dyson Daniels (Wing)
Key losses – Nothing significant
Maybe I’m looking at this team through rose-coloured glasses, because no one truly knows what Zion Williamson will look like this coming season. But the Pelicans are one of my favourites to lead the league in wins added over last season.
They were an extremely tough playoff out for the 64-win Suns without Zion. And they’re getting back one of the league’s most effective offensive players when he returns. Add to that Brandon Ingram, who definitely showed a gear we hadn’t seen from him in that first round playoff series, along with veteran scorer C.J. McCollum, and you’ve got a great three-man offensive core that compliments each other well.
And then there’s the future Defensive Player of the Year, Herb Jones. The kid came into the league a fully formed elite defender, and his shot has been getting better with seemingly every game. Jones’ ability to cover a ton of space gives New Orleans some great options down the stretch in games. Go small and pesky with Jones, Jose Alvarado, McCollum and Ingram with Zion at centre, or go huge with a Zion-Jonas Valanciunas-Ingram front court paired with Herb Jones and McCollum.
I love both of those lineups, and I love this team. I’m pounding the OVER 44.5 wins hard.
San Antonio Spurs– o/u 23.5 wins
Key additions – Malaki Branham (Wing), Jeremy Sochan (Wing)
Key losses – Dejounte Murray (G), Lonnie Walker (G)
On paper, the San Antonio Spurs appear to be tanking. Yet, that was the case last season and Gregg Popovich somehow managed to steer the Spurs to a berth in the play-in tournament.
Here’s the thing about this team: Yes, they traded away their best player in Dejounte Murray. Yes, the Spurs’ offence will likely be built around a still-pretty-raw Keldon Johnson. No, they don’t have a ton of talent on their roster.
But they have Popovich, and Pop hasn’t won fewer than 32 games in his career. Last season was his career low, and they still made the post-season. I don’t want to bet the under on a number this low if it means betting against the greatest coach of all time. No thank you. I’ll take the OVER 23.5 wins, please.
Houston Rockets – o/u 25.5
Key additions – Jabari Smith (F), TyTy Washington (PG), Tari Eason (F)
Key losses – Christian Wood (C)
Houston, we have another bad season coming. However, it’s all part of the plan. Jalen Green showed flashes of brilliance last season, but was so inconsistent he’s probably got another year or two of improvement before I’m willing to invest in him long-term.
The Rockets will be a high variance team. Green can score 40 on a Monday and look like a net-negative on Tuesday. Jabari Smith is an immense talent, but his lack of handle means he’ll need someone else to set him up.
That’s not what you want to be asking of a young backcourt. The Rockets feel like this year’s most likely winner of “Western Conference Punching Bag.” Give me the UNDER 25.5 wins.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
