It happened again. I got mad on the internet about people saying things I disagreed with. I try not to do it, but darn it, it just happens sometimes. Yesterday it was The Clayton Kershaw Discourse, and how people became SO UPSET about the Dodgers pulling Kershaw with a perfect game after seven innings because he'd thrown 80 pitches.
In short, while the decision stunk, it was also the right decision. Clayton Kershaw missed a huge chunk of last season -- including the playoffs -- because of an elbow injury, and that same elbow injury kept him from being able to throw during the offseason. So a truncated spring training and one start isn't nearly enough to have his arm in shape to throw a complete game.
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Yet everybody felt the Dodgers should've thrown him back out there for their amusement anyway. I get it, but does anybody else notice the strange disconnect about how fans treat health across different sports? In football, any time a player takes a blow to the head, social media goes into a rage if that player is allowed to return to the game too quickly. That player's health becomes the most important thing, but when it's a pitcher's elbow -- their livelihood -- it no longer matters. Just make them throw until it falls off. Does caring about an athlete's health and proactively trying to protect them from themselves only apply to their head and nothing else?
OK, I'm going to go take some deep, calming breaths. You read these picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Hot Ticket
Angels at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB Network
Key Trend: The Rangers have won four of the last five meetings.The Pick: Rangers (+130)There's nothing more profitable than betting against people having fun. I have no mathematical data to support this, but it feels true. Tonight we're fading everybody's favorite baseball player: Shohei Ohtani. He will start for the Angels tonight, which is appointment television for all sports fans, and it's also appointment betting.
Everybody loves Shohei. I love him. You love him. Even that guy who works at the gas station you go to who hates everybody hates him a little less than he hates everybody else. How could you not? But all that love leads to the Angels being overvalued when Ohtani starts, and that's the case tonight. Now, to be clear, Ohtani is incredible and will probably pitch well tonight. What we're fading more than anything is the Angels bullpen, because Ohtani isn't going to pitch deep into this game.
The Angels bullpen currently has an ERA of 6.31 in the 2022 season (29th) and a home run rate allowed of 7.41% (30th). Those dudes are getting lit up out there, and while you might say that 2022 is a small sample size, it was one of the worst in baseball last season too. Also, while it's another small sample, the Rangers offense has been better than Los Angeles' so far this season. The Rangers have a wRC+ of 108 and are 12th in baseball with a wOBA of .321 with the league's third-lowest strikeout rate (16.1%). In other words, I'm not entirely sure the right team is favored here. At the very least, it shouldn't be favored this heavily.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model sees solid value on the moneyline tonight as well, with a B-graded play. But which team is it betting?
