The 2019 season is barely more than a week old and already it feels like the Red Sox are in a crisis. Saturday night's walk-off loss to the Diamondbacks (ARI 5, BOS 4) dropped Boston's record to 2-8, the worst 10-game start for a defending World Series champion since the 1998 Marlins started 1-9. Those Marlins were torn down over the winter, and went on to lose 108 games.
Ten games is only 6.2 percent of the season, so the Red Sox have plenty of time to turn things around, but they have done real damage to their season outlook. It'll take a seven-game winning streak just to get back above .500 -- as good as they were last season, Boston had only three winning streaks of at least seven games in 2018 -- and look at this:
According to FanGraphs, their postseason odds have dropped from 90.3 percent on Opening Day to 67.2 percent Saturday.The Red Sox will have to play .612 ball the rest of the way (99-win pace) to get to 95 wins, approximately what it'll take to secure a postseason spot.The Red Sox currently have baseball's worst run differential (minus-27) by 10 runs, and they are averaging 7.20 runs allowed per game, worst in the American League. Their starters have a 9.13 ERA, the worst in baseball by more than two and a half runs (Cubs are second with a 6.57 ERA). These first 10 games have been ugly. No doubt about it.
How can the Red Sox get back on track following this 2-8 skid? Well, it won't happen overnight, but there are some things they can do to improve their chances of winning ballgames going forward. Here are five.
Go home already
The Red Sox have yet to play a game in Fenway Park this season. They started the season on an 11-game West Coast road trip and wow, that's rough. To be fair, manager Alex Cora is not using the schedule as an excuse. Here's what he told reporters, including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, prior to Saturday's loss:
"Seattle went to Japan and they're, what, 8-1?" Cora said. "This is the big leagues. We don't travel in middle seats. We don't stay in motels. The way they treat us in the clubhouse is five stars. It's what the schedule says. It's 11 games in a row on the road. But we're not making excuses. We just aren't playing well."
Travel is not an excuse. It's also not helping matters. The Red Sox have had a rough travel schedule to begin the new season and, following Sunday's game (stream on fuboTV), they will return to Boston for the first time this year. The World Series ring ceremony is Tuesday and Boston will play 16 of its next 22 games at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox are built for their home ballpark, especially offensively. Last year they averaged 5.78 runs per game at home and 5.04 runs per game on the road. Furthermore, getting to sleep in your own bed and not shift from city to city every few days is a real help. Big leaguers travel in style. That doesn't make the travel fun. I'm not sure how much it will help, exactly, but I know spending much of the next three weeks in Boston won't hurt.
Clean up the sloppy mistakes
Boston has already made five outs on the bases this year -- most notably, they had a runner thrown out on the bases in three straight games by Athletics center fielder Ramon Laureano last week -- as well as nine errors. That's the second most outs on the bases and the third most errors in baseball in the early going.
I can't get this play out of my head:
Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts had more communication issues against the D-Backs this weekend. If you sat down before Opening Day and put together a list of potential problems for the 2019 Red Sox, I don't think those two having communication issues in the outfield would crack the top 50.
The Red Sox have played very sloppy ball in the early going -- Saturday's walk-off loss was made possible by a ninth inning passed ball -- and it has to be cleaned up. Those outfield communication issues shouldn't happen. Getting thrown out on the bases by the same outfielder three straight games shouldn't happen. At some point an adjustment has to be made.
Physical mistakes are part of the game. They happen to every team. The mental errors are piling up though. The Red Sox have been doing themselves no favors on the bases or in the field, and that's something they can at least partially fix with better decision-making than what we've seen in the early going.
Commit to Swihart behind the plate
With all due respect to Christian Vazquez, who was behind the plate for almost the entirety of the Red Sox's postseason run last year, Boston should give Blake Swihart an extended opportunity at catcher. The sample size is not big at all, but Swihart has been better at the plate than Vazquez thus far (1.405 OPS vs. .606 OPS), and Vazquez has had some defensive issues as well. He allowed the passed ball in the ninth inning Saturday and is 0 for 3 throwing out runners this year.
Vazquez has never been an offensive dynamo -- he hit .207/.257/.283 in 269 plate appearances last year -- whereas Swihart is a former top prospect with considerable offensive potential. Before some injuries set in, Baseball America ranked Swihart as the 17th best prospect in baseball, and their scouting report was exciting:
Offensively, though he shows an aggressive approach that limits his walks, he displays good pitch recognition, typically swings at strikes and sends line drives screaming to the gaps. Though still stronger from the right side, he shows above-average bat speed and bat control from both sides of the plate, and he won't be beaten by velocity, while switch-hitting will limit his vulnerability to breaking balls. His swing is geared for line drives.
Swihart turned only 27 last week and the Red Sox owe it to themselves to find out whether he can be anything more than a utility guy. Vazquez doesn't provide much offensively, and, given the way the pitching staff has performed to date, it's hard to argue his work with the staff is making up for his bat. This is not like sitting Vazquez for Sandy Leon, another no-bat/all-glove catcher. Swihart has a chance to be an above-average two-way player. It's time to give him an extended look.
Sign Kimbrel!
Hey, it can't hurt, right? Ten games into 2019, the Red Sox bullpen has not been the problem so many fans and pundits expected coming into the new season. Check out the numbers:
Starters
46 1/3
9.13
1.96
1.064
7.6
1.5
Relievers
36 1/3
4.21
1.32
.737
10.4
3.5
Those bullpen numbers were much better before Brian Johnson was tagged for seven runs in 1 1/3 innings Friday night. He experienced elbow discomfort during that outing and was placed on the injured list Saturday.
Even with the bullpen exceeding expectations so far, there is always room for improvement, and bringing Craig Kimbrel back would free up Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier to pitch in higher leverage situations earlier in the game. Kimbrel takes over the ninth but he doesn't replace Barnes or Brasier. He'd replace the last guy in the bullpen (Marcus Walden was called up to replace Johnson on Saturday) and that's a big upgrade.
The case can be made the Red Sox should also sign Dallas Keuchel given their rotation work to date, though it's hard to see him displacing one of their five starting pitchers even with their performance through 10 games. Eduardo Rodriguez is the low man on the rotation depth chart right now and the Red Sox would likely stick with him given his age and upside rather than pay the price to bring in Keuchel, who is probably weeks away from being MLB ready anyway.
As a reliever, Kimbrel would presumably be ready much sooner, and when you're planning to fight for a division title, any upgrade is worth making. Are the Red Sox willing to exceed the $246 million third luxury tier to sign him? They haven't been to date. Remember, every $1 they give Kimbrel is effectively $1.62 due to the luxury tax. That's is real money and it adds up quick. Maybe they'll change their mind if the losses continue to pile up.
Just be patient
I know no Red Sox fan wants to hear this, and believe me, I know being patient isn't easy, but the Red Sox shouldn't do anything rash. Here is a partial list of things I would not expect to continue with this Red Sox group:
Andrew Benintendi hitting a soft .270/.333/.378.Rafael Devers hitting a powerless .243/.317/.297.Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting a brutal .171/.194/.200.The rotation combining for a 9.13 ERA.Give it some time and those things will correct themselves. Benintendi will go back to being a comfortably above-average hitter, Devers will start hitting for power, Bradley will draw closer to league average offensively, and the rotation won't allow more earned runs than innings pitched. The talent suggests better days are ahead.
That doesn't make the 2-8 start any easier to swallow or sit through, of course. Those eight losses in 10 games happened and the Red Sox have given themselves less margin for error the rest of the season. This roster is much better than its has played, however, and over the long haul the talent will shine. Eventually the bats will start to click and the rotation will round into form. It just takes time. This group has better days ahead.