The Milwaukee Brewers are in trouble. Milwaukee has wasted a 7-1 start to the season by going 6-12 since, including an active four-game losing streak comprising a three-game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. All the losing has left the Brewers with a 13-13 record and in fourth place in the National League Central, the same division they won last year.
What's behind the Brewers' recent woes? Let's take a look at three main factors.
The Brewers need more of their hitters to get going.
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1. Unbalanced lineup
On the aggregate, the Brewers have had an average offense. They entered Thursday ranked 13th in runs scored and 15th in adjusted weighted runs created; below expectations, sure, but mediocre rather than horrid. Yet dig deeper and it's clear Milwaukee has had a top-heavy attack.
Of the eight Brewers with 80 or more plate appearances this season, only three have been league-average hitters or better. Conversely, four have been well-below-average (defined here as at least 25 percent worse than the league-average hitter) -- that group includes Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, and Jesus Aguilar, or three players who were supposed to provide thump.
Milwaukee's offense has largely hinged on the play of Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, and Mike Moustakas. And while it's a small sample and not necessarily predictive of anything, Yelich has been horrid on the road, further hampering an already limited lineup.
The Brewers would seem to have too much talent to continue hitting this poorly, but don't sleep on the possibilities that Braun doesn't make a full recovery at age-35, and that Aguilar is just-OK rather than the All-Star slugger he was the first half of last season. Should those scenarios come to pass, the Brewers may have to get creative to work prospect Keston Hiura into the fold. Otherwise, they'll have to go outside the organization for help.
Milwaukee hopes Gio Gonzalez can help their rotation.
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2. Shoddy rotation
Speaking of which, the Brewers have already reached outside the clubhouse to add to their rotation by signing veteran southpaw Gio Gonzalez on Wednesday.
Gonzalez figures to join a starting five that ranks 26th in ERA. Freddy Peralta is on the injured list; Corbin Burnes has been demoted to Triple-A; and both Jhoulys Chacin and Brandon Woodruff are toting around ERA higher than 5.80. Zach Davies is Milwaukee's only starter who can be counted on right now -- especially given Chase Anderson's home-run proneness.
The best-case scenario for Milwaukee is that Davies keeps doing his thing; Woodruff begins pitching in line with his peripherals; Burnes figures out what's wrong in the minors; Gonzalez and Chacin find a way to be league-average starters; and Jimmy Nelson and/or Brent Suter work their way back from injury and look as good as new. The likelihood of all that going exactly as laid out is … well, there's a reason it's called a best-case scenario. More likely is Milwaukee continuing to seek out rotation help through trade as the season burns on.
Jeremy Jeffress has lost oomph on his heater after a shoulder injury.
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3. Weakened bullpen
Needing another starter is nothing new for the Brewers -- most people have expected them to make a move for a top-of-the-rotation type for nearly two years now -- but what is new is Milwaukee's downgraded relief corps. Whereas in the past Craig Counsell could summon an end-game trio of Corey Knebel, Josh Hader, and Jeremy Jeffress to finish things off, these Brewers are without Knebel for the season and have a Jeffress who missed time with a shoulder injury and has since lost three miles per hour on his fastball when compared to last year.
It's perhaps no surprise, then, that the Brewers bullpen ranks 18th in ERA. New additions Alex Claudio and Alex Wilson each have strikeout-to-walk ratios worse than 2.00, while Matt Albers has yielded three home runs in 10 innings and Jake Petricka has walked three times as many batters (six) as he has struck out (two). Basically, things have been a mess.
The good news is that relievers are more easily found than hitters or starters. The bad news is Milwaukee's reliance upon its bullpen means it'll need more than a solid middle reliever or two to replicate its old formula for success.
As such, it's possible -- possible -- that Milwaukee is worse off than they looked entering the season. Not because they've encountered some recent turbulence, but, rather, because their young pitchers haven't shown yet they're up for the task and their bullpen gambles have so far not paid off as desired. None of this means the Brewers are toast or anything of that nature -- it does mean, however, they could have a tougher road ahead of them than originally anticipated.
