The San Diego Padres are in peril of being one of the most disappointing teams of the 2023 season.
That's a competitive category in light of what's befallen the Mets and Cardinals this season. In the Padres' case, they're a club heavily invested in near-term success: they boast (yes, boast, because trying to win is a good thing) the largest non-New York payroll in all of Major League Baseball. No matter the outcome, that's laudable because it shows small-market teams can and should do more to compete. The outcome, though, matters on other levels, and right now they're headed for a grim one.
The Padres, presently ensnared in an ill-timed four-game losing streak, sit five games below .500 and behind four teams in the chase for the final National League wild-card berth. They're also 4 1/2 games out of playoff position. Given the superstar-laden roster – Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts makes for a partial listing – this wasn't how things were supposed to be. Coming into the 2023 season, you could easily argue that the Padres were stronger on paper than the juggernaut Dodgers. Suffice it to say, that's not how things have unfolded.
The question now becomes: Can the Padres flip this particular script down the stretch, squeak into the postseason for a third time in the last four seasons, and make a deep October/November run that makes everyone forget the remainder of their 2023? Obviously, it's not likely to happen. SportsLine right now gives Bob Melvin's squadron just a 22.3% chance of making the playoffs. On the other hand, something close to a one-in-four chance for a team on pace for 85 losses seems pretty generous. That's because, while the Padres' odds are still somewhat long, they're probably in a better position than you might think based off a quick glance at their record.
So to apply a light coating of optimism to the Padres' current straits, let's take a look at why they might be in position to defy the current odds and claw their way into the playoffs.
1. The Padres have played much better than their record
First and most essentially, the Padres at a fundamental level haven't played like a 55-60 team. They right now have a run differential of plus-56, which is good for fourth-best in the NL. That kind of run differential should yield a record of 63-52, which is a massive eight games better than their actual mark. If you look at Clay Davenport's third-order standings, which strips away some of the noise and randomness associated with run differential, you find the Padres look even (fractionally) better than their runs scored and runs allowed suggest.
Largely, the Padres have underperformed their true team quality because of their struggles in one-run games. Yes, bullpen quality and tactical decision-making can play a lesser role in such outcomes, but mostly one-run game results are driven by luck, good or bad. In the Padres' case, it's been a whole lot of bad – they're a miserable 6-18 in such contests. It's getting late out there, so the Padres need to hurry up and find their true level, the one that's reflected by their underlying quality of play.
2. There's hope for better health in the rotation
Right-handed starter Michael Wacha has been out since July 1 with shoulder inflammation, and the ace-ish Joe Musgrove has been on ice since July 28 with his own case of shoulder inflammation. Wacha, who was highly effective prior to his injury (2.84 ERA, 3.72 FIP in 15 starts), recently began a minor-league rehab assignment at the Double-A level. Barring a setback, he should rejoin the San Diego rotation soon enough. They need him back, and that's the case even after the deadline addition of veteran port-sider Rich Hill.
As for Musgrove, his timeline is much less certain, and it's possible he doesn't get healthy enough in time to return this season. Still, at present a return has not been ruled out, and the Padres quite obviously need him to get back in time to make at least a couple of starts, assuming they're still in the race at such a late hour. In general, Wacha's return should help matters in the rotation, and Musgrove's status merits close monitoring.
3. The schedule ahead gets a bit easier
To date, the Padres have played the sixth-toughest schedule in MLB as measured by opponents' average winning percentage. Moving forward, though, the Padres' remaining schedule ranks 21st in MLB when it comes to that same measure. That's not drastic, but it's a subtle shift in the desired direction for San Diego.
As well, the Padres will get multiple cracks at teams ahead of them in the queue for that final wild-card spot. To wit, they have seven games left against the Diamondbacks and three against the Marlins. A slew of future contests against the Brewers, Giants, and Phillies might also wind up being relevant.
On the "easy" front, the Padres end the regular season with what should be an accommodating stretch. Of their final 15 games, 12 come against the A's, Rockies, Cardinals, and White Sox. If they manage to get Musgrove back in time for that run? Even better. The goal in the meantime is to put themselves in position to make a late charge at the expense of those tomato cans. That's not likely, as noted, but it's possible, as also noted.
